US Commuting delays from tidal flooding worsen with sea level rise

US Commuting delays from tidal flooding worsen with sea level rise | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article US Commuting delays from tidal flooding worsen with sea level rise Mathew Hauer, Valerie Mueller, Glenn Sheriff This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-861767/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Although sea level rise is predicted to cause severe societal impacts at the end of the 21st century, few studies quantify the impacts coastal communities already face and empirical evidence regarding contemporary adaptive behaviors to these contemporary impacts remains limited. Here we combine complete road networks, historical and projected flood exposure, and the home/work locations of 500 million person-years for US coastal commuters to estimate the historic and projected delays due to SLR-related tidal flooding. We find that tidal flooding currently delays coastal commuters by an average of 22 minutes (+/- 4.4), increasing to 183 (+/- 33) to 643 (+/- 108) minutes by 2060 under current sea level rise scenarios. Furthermore, adaptive changes in residential and work locations from 2000-2015 reduced delays for coastal residents in 40% of U.S. counties. In the absence of policy, these commuting delays could lead to capital and residential flight from currently thriving coastal economic zones. Climatology sea level rise tidal flooding coastal commuters Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-861767","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":53165792,"identity":"2fd2f52d-e7d6-4462-95f1-e4980847f285","order_by":0,"name":"Mathew Hauer","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAsklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHjApx94AothI0GLMc4BULYk9RGvRbe89+Jmn4l56D/8ZA4YPZYcJazE7cy5ZmudMcW6PRI4B44xzxGi5kWMgzduWkLtfgseAmbeNGC333xj/5v2XkM4DdBjzX6K03OAxk+ZtSEjgYcgxYGYkSsuZHDPLOccSDHsk0goO9pxLJ0LL8TPGN97UJMjz8B/e+OBHmTVhLSjgAInqR8EoGAWjYBTgAgDj5jd0MZX0YQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9390-5308","institution":"Florida State University","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mathew","middleName":"","lastName":"Hauer","suffix":""},{"id":53165793,"identity":"95765669-58b1-4e07-b8c7-0ec70110e060","order_by":1,"name":"Valerie Mueller","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1246-2141","institution":"Arizona State University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Valerie","middleName":"","lastName":"Mueller","suffix":""},{"id":53165794,"identity":"5b2f1f67-1595-4c0d-ae14-93ed0e9f14c5","order_by":2,"name":"Glenn Sheriff","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Arizona State University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Glenn","middleName":"","lastName":"Sheriff","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2021-08-31 13:31:17","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-861767/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-861767/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":13824438,"identity":"25fb5532-753d-4c3f-ae19-1a1eadba3047","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-09-21 14:36:03","extension":"pdf","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":3794705,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File #1","description":"","filename":"nationalncc.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-861767/v1_covered.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"US Commuting delays from tidal flooding worsen with sea level rise","fulltext":[{"header":"Full Text","content":"This preprint is available for \u003ca href='/article/rs-861767/latest.pdf' target='_blank'\u003edownload as a PDF\u003c/a\u003e."}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"sea level rise, tidal flooding, coastal commuters","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-861767/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-861767/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Although sea level rise is predicted to cause severe societal impacts at the end of the 21st century, few studies quantify the impacts coastal communities already face and empirical evidence regarding contemporary adaptive behaviors to these contemporary impacts remains limited. 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