Meso-Scale Spatiotemporal Analysis of Future Drought Characteristics in Northern Thailand Under Climate Change and Variability

Meso-Scale Spatiotemporal Analysis of Future Drought Characteristics in Northern Thailand Under Climate Change and Variability | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Meso-Scale Spatiotemporal Analysis of Future Drought Characteristics in Northern Thailand Under Climate Change and Variability Kongphop Leerach, Niti Iamchuen, Kwansirinapa Thanawong, Piyapatr Busababodhin, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6334344/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 29 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Theoretical and Applied Climatology → Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought under climate change and variability in northern Thailand, located within the Southeast Asian monsoon region, using the 3-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI-3). The analysis is conducted utilizing a high-resolution gridded dataset derived from the statistical downscaling of an optimally selected ensemble of five global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The study spans the historical period (1981–2014) and three future periods: near future (2026–2050), mid-future (2051–2075), and far future (2076–2100). The results indicate increasing trends in precipitation, mean temperature, and potential evapotranspiration across both scenarios, with more pronounced changes under SSP5-8.5. The SPEI-3 index reveals a decreasing trend in drought severity throughout the 21st century, with the most significant reductions projected for the far future under SSP5-8.5. Spatial analysis found distinctly decrease drought for the far future in Southwest and West of Northern Thailand under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. However, yearly variations are different in different areas. In the far future under SSP2-4.5, yearly variations increase in the Northeast but decrease in the Southeast. Under SSP5-8.5, yearly variations increase in the central region but decrease in the Northern and Southeast areas. Spatial variability analysis using spatial SD shows a decrease in the near future but an increase in the far future. Meanwhile, future drought frequency and duration are expected to decline relative to the historical baseline, though certain areas may experience localized increases. Drought peaks demonstrate scenario-dependent variations. Under SSP2-4.5, the highest drought severity is projected in the far future for upper northern Thailand, whereas SSP5-8.5 indicates peak severity in the near future for lower northern Thailand. Significant spatial differences in drought characteristics were observed, underscoring the importance of accounting for local mesoscale climatic effects and climate variability in drought studies. These findings offer critical insights into future drought conditions in northern Thailand, emphasizing the need for policymakers to develop and implement targeted adaptation measures to address climate change's impacts effectively. Climate change Climate variability CMIP6 Drought Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 29 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Theoretical and Applied Climatology → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 27 Apr, 2025 Reviews received at journal 26 Apr, 2025 Reviews received at journal 23 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Apr, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 01 Apr, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 30 Mar, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 30 Mar, 2025 First submitted to journal 29 Mar, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6334344","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":441558276,"identity":"652f5607-f2e2-4427-ae71-27feb6322d1c","order_by":0,"name":"Kongphop Leerach","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Phayao","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kongphop","middleName":"","lastName":"Leerach","suffix":""},{"id":441558278,"identity":"92193091-a280-41d8-aed2-998b0b47fa0b","order_by":1,"name":"Niti Iamchuen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Phayao","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Niti","middleName":"","lastName":"Iamchuen","suffix":""},{"id":441558279,"identity":"ec0d73e9-3179-45d7-852d-1b311f642b8a","order_by":2,"name":"Kwansirinapa Thanawong","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Phayao","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kwansirinapa","middleName":"","lastName":"Thanawong","suffix":""},{"id":441558280,"identity":"1fcb88ff-c058-4163-8a96-9dc4fb956b2a","order_by":3,"name":"Piyapatr Busababodhin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Mahasarakham University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Piyapatr","middleName":"","lastName":"Busababodhin","suffix":""},{"id":441558281,"identity":"a0327dbc-9c08-4a9d-be48-1ebfb895a807","order_by":4,"name":"Sukrit Kirtsaeng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Thai Meteorological Department","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sukrit","middleName":"","lastName":"Kirtsaeng","suffix":""},{"id":441558282,"identity":"b1e48c7b-f3f3-4839-bd69-13bdb1aa0bc1","order_by":5,"name":"Sittichai Pimonsree","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/0lEQVRIie3PMWvCQBTA8XcEdLG6RhzyCQoGISBE+kFcLgTSpfkGoVw5uEziqlO/RekYeXAugqtDh7h0rpvd+i5upZfi5nB/uOFCfrx7AC7XLebR4VBBx2Pl+STMJ/ZStROPiYZ0ZTVcC/CJiHYCRIAI9DQf3TWkudoLysG2rouPoO8/jSez9/j5vkSaUsRzGxmjeZj+DBWRNN9lfrRLiOgsFzZidkkEMkMwV+hHFREm0EoCeSEPREI5NWR/bCeAF5Konk49Zsjhnym0S7jiGlPVlZotVDZ8O9AU3rJLsNzUp3OBs1fJFHyreBDtH4/1VxHbH/Z3/LrfXS6Xy/WrH7WSZJWm+m4vAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"University of Phayao","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sittichai","middleName":"","lastName":"Pimonsree","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-03-29 13:23:23","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6334344/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6334344/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05662-1","type":"published","date":"2025-07-29T16:38:14+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":88268468,"identity":"35cbb2d0-a799-4a19-b535-4b486cf947fa","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-04 16:51:53","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1510611,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6334344/v1_covered_b4079899-8f99-4dd7-941d-d97bc9877bf1.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Meso-Scale Spatiotemporal Analysis of Future Drought Characteristics in Northern Thailand Under Climate Change and Variability","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"theoretical-and-applied-climatology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"taac","sideBox":"Learn more about [Theoretical and Applied Climatology](https://www.springer.com/journal/704)","snPcode":"704","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/704/3","title":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Climate change, Climate variability, CMIP6, Drought, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6334344/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6334344/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought under climate change and variability in northern Thailand, located within the Southeast Asian monsoon region, using the 3-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI-3). The analysis is conducted utilizing a high-resolution gridded dataset derived from the statistical downscaling of an optimally selected ensemble of five global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The study spans the historical period (1981\u0026ndash;2014) and three future periods: near future (2026\u0026ndash;2050), mid-future (2051\u0026ndash;2075), and far future (2076\u0026ndash;2100). The results indicate increasing trends in precipitation, mean temperature, and potential evapotranspiration across both scenarios, with more pronounced changes under SSP5-8.5. The SPEI-3 index reveals a decreasing trend in drought severity throughout the 21st century, with the most significant reductions projected for the far future under SSP5-8.5. Spatial analysis found distinctly decrease drought for the far future in Southwest and West of Northern Thailand under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. However, yearly variations are different in different areas. In the far future under SSP2-4.5, yearly variations increase in the Northeast but decrease in the Southeast. Under SSP5-8.5, yearly variations increase in the central region but decrease in the Northern and Southeast areas. Spatial variability analysis using spatial SD shows a decrease in the near future but an increase in the far future. Meanwhile, future drought frequency and duration are expected to decline relative to the historical baseline, though certain areas may experience localized increases. Drought peaks demonstrate scenario-dependent variations. Under SSP2-4.5, the highest drought severity is projected in the far future for upper northern Thailand, whereas SSP5-8.5 indicates peak severity in the near future for lower northern Thailand. Significant spatial differences in drought characteristics were observed, underscoring the importance of accounting for local mesoscale climatic effects and climate variability in drought studies. These findings offer critical insights into future drought conditions in northern Thailand, emphasizing the need for policymakers to develop and implement targeted adaptation measures to address climate change's impacts effectively.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Meso-Scale Spatiotemporal Analysis of Future Drought Characteristics in Northern Thailand Under Climate Change and Variability","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-04-21 18:37:04","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6334344/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-04-27T06:07:46+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-04-26T07:06:50+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-04-23T15:53:43+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"236935099889753447266691122423576449078","date":"2025-04-03T08:20:10+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"1947953304622233040227563566770905368","date":"2025-04-01T08:44:42+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-04-01T08:17:43+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-03-30T23:11:55+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-03-30T23:11:26+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","date":"2025-03-29T13:20:45+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"theoretical-and-applied-climatology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"taac","sideBox":"Learn more about [Theoretical and Applied Climatology](https://www.springer.com/journal/704)","snPcode":"704","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/704/3","title":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"0ee0c7d4-ce95-493f-a344-fb259d93282b","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 21st, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-08-04T16:47:02+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6334344","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05662-1","journal":{"identity":"theoretical-and-applied-climatology","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology"},"publishedOn":"2025-07-29 16:38:14","publishedOnDateReadable":"July 29th, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-04-21 18:37:04","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s00704-025-05662-1","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05662-1","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6334344","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6334344","identity":"rs-6334344","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}