Who is paying the extinction debt? Phylogenetic and functional structuring on Greek islands is shaped by sea-level rise since the Last Glacial Maximum

Who is paying the extinction debt? Phylogenetic and functional structuring on Greek islands is shaped by sea-level rise since the Last Glacial Maximum | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL Ecology and Evolution This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 12 May 2026 V1 Latest version Share on Who is paying the extinction debt? Phylogenetic and functional structuring on Greek islands is shaped by sea-level rise since the Last Glacial Maximum Authors : Nathan Michielsen 0000-0002-1450-9575 [email protected] , Cyril Hammoud [email protected] , Johannes Foufopoulos [email protected] , Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis 0000-0002-6938-3025 [email protected] , Amandine Vidal-Hosteng [email protected] , E. Emiel Van Loon [email protected] , Johannes De Groeve [email protected] , and Kenneth F. Rijsdijk [email protected] Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/authorea.15003121/v1 19 views 10 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ~21.5 kya, global sea-level rise has reshaped coastal areas by contracting subaerial regions, severing mainland connections and driving the progressive fragmentation of pre-existing islands. These changes led to supersaturation of island communities, triggering community relaxation through local extinctions. However, it remains unclear which ecological processes are responsible for patterns of species extinction. Here, we integrate a paleo-coastline model with well-characterised squamate community data from 163 Mediterranean islands to assess how past geographical changes influenced community structure. We evaluate phylogenetic and functional community structure and test links to paleogeographic variables. Our findings suggest phylogenetic overdispersion (co-occurring species being more distantly related than expected by chance) dominates and is higher on older islands, implying ongoing community relaxation and that extinctions are driven more by interspecific competition than environmental filtering. Island time-since-isolation emerges as the strongest predictor of phylogenetic structuring, indicating that longer isolation drives phylogenetic overdispersion via selective extinction of close relatives. These results underline the significance of relaxation dynamics in shaping insular communities. Supplementary Material File (supplementary information.docx) supplementary information Download 5.75 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 12 May 2026 Collection Ecology and Evolution Authors Affiliations Nathan Michielsen 0000-0002-1450-9575 [email protected] View all articles by this author Cyril Hammoud [email protected] University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark, 1165 View all articles by this author Johannes Foufopoulos [email protected] University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark, 1165 View all articles by this author Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis 0000-0002-6938-3025 [email protected] University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark, 1165 View all articles by this author Amandine Vidal-Hosteng [email protected] University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark, 1165 View all articles by this author E. Emiel Van Loon [email protected] University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark, 1165 View all articles by this author Johannes De Groeve [email protected] University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark, 1165 View all articles by this author Kenneth F. Rijsdijk [email protected] University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark, 1165 View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 19 views 10 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Nathan Michielsen, Cyril Hammoud, Johannes Foufopoulos, et al. Who is paying the extinction debt? Phylogenetic and functional structuring on Greek islands is shaped by sea-level rise since the Last Glacial Maximum. Authorea . 12 May 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/authorea.15003121/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. 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