Predicting the potential distribution of 5 Rhododendron plants on the Qinghai- Tibet Plateau, with a maximum entropy model

Rhododendron, a prominent member of the Rhododendron family, is known as the biggest genus in the Chinese and Himalayan flora. Not only does it possess an aesthetic appeal, but it also holds significant importance in the field of horticulture. To understand the potential spatial distribution of Rhododendron under future global warming scenarios, we simulated changes in its suitable habitat by 2050 and 2070 using the MaxEnt model with three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, the results show that: (1) The AUC values of the five plants were all greater than 0.98,indicated that the model prediction effect was excellent; (2) The suitable habitat for Rhododendron przewalskii, Rhododendron trichostomum, Rhododendron hypenanthum, and Rhododendron nyingchiense is expanding, while the suitable habitat for Rhododendron laudandum is shrinking; (3) Isothermality is the most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of Rhododendron (excluding Rhododendron przewalskii). The most important environmental factor for Rhododendron przewalskii is altitude (alt: 51%), with an optimum range of 2700-3300, and Rhododendron trichostomum are affected by altitude (alt 18%), with an optimum range of 3200-3900. Rhododendron przewalskii (bio12: 21%) and Rhododendron trichostomum(bio12: 19%) are also affected by annual precipitation, and Rhododendron laudandum(bio12: 6%) is less affected by annual precipitation, with optimal ranges of 400-500 as well as 500-800. Rhododendron przewalskii and Rhododendron trichostomum are suitable for survival in high altitude, semi-arid areas. The results of the study provide a basis for the in situ conservation of Rhododendron in response to global warming, relocation conservation, and the construction of nature reserve communities and ecological corridors.