Human influence on recent trends in extratropical low-level wind speed

Human influence on recent trends in extratropical low-level wind speed | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Human influence on recent trends in extratropical low-level wind speed Hsing-Hung Chou, Tiffany A. Shaw, Gan Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7357907/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 20 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 1 posted 14 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Trends in atmospheric circulation have begun to emerge in recent decades. Summertime mean circulation trends aloft have been attributed to human influence, but discrepancies exist for wintertime. For low-level extreme winds, it remains unclear to what extent human activities have influenced recent trends and whether models can capture them. Here, we compare satellite-era trends in extratropical low-level mean and extreme (>90th percentile) winds in reanalyses and climate model simulations. In summer, Southern Hemisphere midlatitude winds have strengthened, driven by greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone forcings. Wind stilling over Europe in summer is dominated by aerosol forcing. In winter, models cannot capture the strengthening over the Southern Hemisphere and the weakening over the subtropical North Pacific and Europe. These discrepancies, particularly in the Pacific, are reduced but still exist when observed sea surface temperatures are prescribed. Our results highlight human influence on summertime low-level extreme winds and reveal regional wintertime discrepancies. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Extreme winds Reanalysis-model discrepancy Recent trends Human influence Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supp250807RecentTrendsExtrpLowLevExtremeWinds.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 20 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 09 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 09 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 09 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 08 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 08 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 25 Aug, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 22 Aug, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 21 Aug, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 21 Aug, 2025 First submitted to journal 12 Aug, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7357907","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":505893594,"identity":"ab6d552a-9d46-4f40-a76d-ffb56dd437af","order_by":0,"name":"Hsing-Hung Chou","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABD0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAwbGBhACAh4grgCKMMPkDhCl5QxRWoAAroWxDSqCT4s5/+G2h193HM6Tdz978DHvvMPy5uzMDz9+qWCQ47uRgFWL5YzEdmPZM4eLDc/kJRvzbjtsuLOZzVha5gyDsSQOLQY3GNukJdsOJ26cwWMmDdSSYHCYhwEowpC4AZeW8weRtcwBa2H+DdRSj1PLgcQ2yY9ALfMlQFoawFrYgCIMCQY4HZbYJs3Ylp64gSfH2HDOsXTDDYfZzKwZzkgYzjzzAIfDjj+T/NlmnTi//Yzhgzc11vIG5w8/vvmjwkae7zh2W0CAmQfsQlQRCZzKQYDxB5CQb0AXGQWjYBSMglEABQBWdGVsuXTCgQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"University of Chicago","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hsing-Hung","middleName":"","lastName":"Chou","suffix":""},{"id":505893595,"identity":"c48a4491-daef-4b85-b07f-8563fbeda9bd","order_by":1,"name":"Tiffany A. 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