Tropical peatlands carbon stocks’ vulnerability to climate change: A rapid evidence assessment

Tropical peatlands carbon stocks’ vulnerability to climate change: A rapid evidence assessment | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Systematic Review Tropical peatlands carbon stocks’ vulnerability to climate change: A rapid evidence assessment Sofyan Kurnianto, Clemens von Scheffer, Mario Alaluna, Diwakar Kumar, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8751727/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Tropical peatlands store large carbon stocks and play a critical role in the global carbon cycle. Yet, their vulnerability to carbon loss under climate change remains unevenly understood. Here, we address the question of which types of tropical peatlands are most vulnerable to carbon stock loss under climate-related stressors by synthesising the existing evidence base through a Rapid Evidence Assessment of 117 peer-reviewed studies published between 2004 and 2025. Studies were systematically coded for region, land-cover types, topographic setting, and reported climate and anthropogenic stressors, allowing a quantitative assessment of how peatland vulnerability has been examined across tropical contexts. The evidence base is geographically and topographically uneven, with a strong concentration of studies in Southeast Asia and lowland peatlands, and substantially fewer studies addressing peatlands in Africa and South America and in montane areas. Across regions, precipitation and drought were the most frequently examined stressors, although their relative emphasis varied when normalised by regional study coverage. Temperature-related stressors were proportionally more prominent in studies from South and Central America and in montane peatlands, whereas precipitation-related stressors were similarly represented across lowland and montane systems. Fire-related stressors were predominantly assessed in Southeast Asia, with limited representation in South and Central America. Sea-level rise and peat subsidence were reported in only a small subset of studies and mostly conducted in Southeast Asia. Land-use change, deforestation, and drainage were primarily examined in Southeast Asia, while livestock-related stressors were concentrated in studies from South and Central America and in montane peatlands. Overall, the distribution of stressors across regions, land-cover types, and topographic settings reveals substantial knowledge gaps that constrain robust assessments of tropical peatland carbon vulnerability, particularly in South America, Central America, and Africa, and in montane peatland systems. Evidence related to sea-level rise and peat subsidence remains especially limited, highlighting the need for greater empirical coverage of these stressors. The combined evidence suggests that degraded, converted, and, especially, drained tropical peatlands are most vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change across the regions and geographical settings. By identifying where evidence is concentrated and where it is lacking, this synthesis also provides a transparent foundation for prioritising future research and strengthening the scientific basis for climate and land-use policies aimed at safeguarding tropical peatland carbon stocks. Tropical peatlands carbon stocks climate change vulnerability Rapid Evidence Assessment anthropogenic stressors climatic stressors land-use change carbon loss Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 1. Introduction Peatlands are important ecosystems that provide many services and functions, including water regulation, pollution retention, and habitat provisioning for biodiversity (Husson et al., 2018 ; Rieley et al., 2008 ). Peatlands also play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle (Ribeiro et al., 2021 ; Yu et al., 2011 ). They store around 30–40% of global soil C pool within only 3% of the Earth’s land surface, placing them as the most C dense ecosystem on earth (Page et al., 2011 ; Xu et al., 2018 ). While peatlands are distributed mainly in the boreal and temperate zones, large peatland areas are also found in the tropics, storing around 15% of global peat C stocks or between 50 and 105 Gt C (Dargie et al., 2017 ; Page et al., 2011 ). Approximately 33.4 to 57.8 Mha of peatlands are distributed across the tropical regions, mainly in Southeast Asia, South America, and the Central Congo Basin (Warren et al., 2017a ; Xu et al., 2018 ), storing over 2100 t C per ha (Kauffman et al., 2025 ). Tropical peatlands are typically covered in dense swamp trees or palms, although some are also grown with sedges, herbaceous or cushion plants (Chimner and Karberg, 2008 ; Cole et al., 2022 ) (Fig. 1 ). Tropical peatlands are also typically located on lowland area, ranging from coastal plains, floodplains along rivers or lakes, and depression with poor drainage (Cole et al., 2022 ; Girkin et al., 2022 ), but some can also be found on highland and mountain areas but in much smaller extent (e.g. Chimner and Karberg, 2008 ; Hope, 2015 ). Nowadays, the heterogeneity of tropical peatlands are further enhanced by anthropogenic impacts (Fig. 1 ). Peatlands store their C mainly in their belowground peat substrate that formed from accumulation of partially decomposed organic matter (OM) (Page et al., 2011 ). Unlike the high latitude peatlands where their preservation is mainly promoted by low-temperature, tropical peatland relies heavily on their rainfall-induced waterlogged environment to prevent rapid OM decomposition under high temperature (Hodgkins et al., 2018 ). This makes them highly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. With a continuously large amount of anthropogenic emission over the past few decades, global temperature has been rising, reaching more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level in 2024 (Copernicus, 2025). This has led to changes in precipitation regimes and occurrence of extreme weather events (Zhang et al., 2024 ). Worldwide, heatwaves, prolonged drought, floods, and hurricanes are observed more frequently and become more intense, including the tropical regions (Redlin and Gries, 2021). Furthermore, melting ice sheets and seawater thermal expansion have been contributing to an increase in global sea level (Thompson et al. 2023 ), posing threats to small islands and low-lying coastal areas. All of these will undoubtedly impact peatlands’ ecosystems across the tropics, especially their functions to store C (Cobb et al., 2020 ; Warren et al., 2017b ). However, due to wide variation of topography, geomorphological process and vegetation cover of tropical peatlands, the impact of climate change on peatland C stocks is likely to vary. This is particularly true considering changes in peatland ecosystem states due to widespread and extensive anthropogenic modification across the tropics (Girkin et al., 2022 ; Mishra et al., 2021 ; Roucoux et al., 2017 ). Also, climate change expressions and manifestations are not uniform across the tropical region and geographic settings (Sa’adi et al., 2023; IPCC 2021 ). While hundreds of studies have been conducted on tropical peatlands all over the globe on carbon cycling, ecosystem changes or dynamics, environmental drivers, etc. (e.g., Garcia Lino et al., 2024; Hawthorne et al., 2023 ; Deshmukh et al., 2021 ), there is a lack of overview to understand the vulnerability of tropical peatland carbon stocks to climate change in various ecosystem settings. Such understanding is important for the decision making process in, for example, setting urgent intervention, allocating limited resources, or prioritizing measures. Considering that the impacts of climate change manifest faster and more severely than previously projected (IFoA and University of Exeter 2026 ; Hansen et al., 2023 ), immediate policy-led actions become critical to minimize the consequence of climate change induced peat C loss in the tropics. This rapid evidence assessment (REA) identifies the existing studies and knowledge gaps on tropical peatlands, specifically those most vulnerable to the loss of carbon stocks due to climate change. 2. Method 2.1. Study Design and Literature Search We conducted an REA (Webb et al. 2026 ) to systematically identify and synthesise peer-reviewed studies examining tropical peatlands and their carbon vulnerability under climate and anthropogenic stressors. The REA approach was selected to enable a transparent and reproducible synthesis of a heterogeneous literature, while allowing quantitative identification of patterns and gaps in the existing evidence base rather than estimation of effect sizes or mechanistic responses. The literature search was performed using two major bibliographic databases, Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus. Search strings combined terms related to tropical peatlands with terms describing carbon stocks and climate-related and anthropogenic drivers, including carbon dynamics, climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, land-use change, drainage, fire, and sea-level rise. The full search string and database query details are provided in the Supplementary Information. Searches were restricted to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English. All retrieved records were imported into a reference management system, where duplicate records were removed prior to screening. The screening process was conducted in three sequential stages: title screening, abstract screening, and full-text assessment. Studies were included if they addressed tropical peatlands and reported empirical data, model outputs, or syntheses relevant to peatland carbon stocks, greenhouse gas emissions, degradation, or restoration in the context of climatic or anthropogenic drivers. Studies were excluded if they focused exclusively on non-tropical regions, did not report carbon- or climate-related variables, consisted of non-peer-reviewed literature (including reports, theses, conference proceedings, or book chapters), were published in languages other than English, or were inaccessible due to paywalls or lack of availability. The full list of included studies is provided in the Supplementary Information. 2.2. Data Extraction and Analysis For each included study, bibliographic information and key study characteristics were systematically extracted and coded into a structured spreadsheet. Extracted variables included publication year, study type (primary research or review), geographic region, peatland land-cover type, topographic setting, and reported climate-related and anthropogenic stressors. Regions were coded using binary indicators, allowing studies to be assigned to more than one region where applicable. Peatland land-cover types were classified as intact peatlands, degraded or converted peatlands, and natural non-forested peatlands, with studies permitted to be assigned to multiple categories. Topographic settings were coded as lowland or montane peatlands, with coastal and inland settings coded separately where reported. Climate-related and anthropogenic stressors were coded using binary variable for precipitation or drought, temperature, ENSO-related variability, fire, sea-level rise, peat subsidence, land-use change, deforestation, drainage, livestock, plantation or agricultural development, and other reported stressors. A single study could be associated with multiple stressors and multiple peatland contexts. Quantitative synthesis was conducted using the coded binary variables only. Descriptive statistics were used to summarise the composition of the evidence base by region, peatland type, topographic setting, and stressor. Cross-tabulations were performed to examine the distribution of stressors across regions, topographic settings, and peatland land-cover types. Because individual studies could address multiple regions, peatland types, or stressors, counts were not mutually exclusive, and proportions could exceed 100 percent when summed across categories. To assess regional and peatland types emphasis, stressor-specific proportions were normalised by the total number of studies conducted in each region or peatland types rather than by the global study total. Results are reported as counts and proportions of studies addressing specific stressors within defined regional, topographic, and land-cover contexts. The Results section focuses on identifying spatial clustering and systematic absences in the evidence base, while interpretation of these patterns in relation to peatland carbon vulnerability and implications for research and policy is reserved for the Discussion. 3. Results 3.1. Overview of Included Studies A total of 651 records were identified through database searches in Web of Science and Scopus. After removing 18 duplicate records, 633 records were screened based on title and abstract, of which 366 records were excluded because they did not address tropical peatlands, were available only as abstracts, or were not relevant to the research objectives. Subsequently, 266 studies were sought for retrieval and another 70 studies were sorted out because they were book chapters or conference proceedings or could not be accessed due to paywall restrictions or unavailability. The remaining 196 studies were assessed for eligibility, leading to exclusion of 79 studies that did not meet the inclusion criteria, mainly due to the absence of carbon stock data, lack of relevance to peatland ecosystems, or methodological limitations. In total, 117 studies met all eligibility criteria and were included in the Rapid Evidence Assessment. Figure 2 illustrates the PRISMA flow diagram detailing the number of records identified, screened, excluded, and ultimately included in the Rapid Evidence Assessment, along with the main reasons for exclusion at each stage. Table 1 Summary of studies included in the Rapid Evidence Assessment by region, land cover types, topographic setting, natural and anthropogenic stressors Category Sub-category Number of studies Percentage of total studies Region Southeast Asia 78 66.7 South America 26 22.2 Central America 13 11.1 Africa 10 8.5 Other regions 10 8.5 Peatland land-cover type Intact peatlands 18 15.4 Degraded / converted peatlands 87 74.4 Natural non-forested peatlands 5 4.3 Unclassified / unclear 29 24.8 Topsetting Lowland peatlands 104 88.9 Montane peatlands 22 18.8 Coastal peatlands 59 50.4 Inland peatlands 78 66.7 Study type Primary research 94 80.3 Review studies 23 19.7 Across the Results section, individual studies may report multiple peatland types, stressors, or environmental conditions. Counts are therefore not mutually exclusive, and percentages are calculated as the number of studies reporting a given characteristic divided by the total number of included studies. As a result, percentages reported across categories may exceed one hundred percent. The publication years of the included studies range from 2004 to 2025, with a median publication year of 2020 and an interquartile range of 2017 to 2022. Most studies were published in the last decade, with approximately 84% of the evidence base appearing from 2015 onward, with no publications identified for 2013 (Fig. 3 ). The included literature was dominated by primary research articles, which accounted for 95 studies (80.5%), while review studies accounted for 24 studies (20.3%). Primary studies were largely based on field measurements, experimental observations, or empirical dataset and most investigations employed field based measurements in combination with peat or vegetation sampling, laboratory analyses, remote sensing, and modelling approaches. Methods were frequently reported using heterogeneous terminology, and multiple approaches were often applied within individual studies. Review studies synthesised findings from previously published empirical work across sites, regions, or peatland types. The geographic distribution of studies was highly uneven, with Southeast Asia accounting for approximately 67% of the included studies, followed by South America (21%) and Central America (11%), while Africa and Pacific or other regions each contributed approximately 8%. Although the regional counts sum to 136, percentages were calculated based on the number of unique studies included in the analysis (n = 117), as some studies investigated more than one region. 3.2. Representation of Peatland Types The included studies represented multiple peatland types, reflecting variation in land cover condition, topographic setting, and coastal influence across the evidence base. Individual studies frequently addressed more than one peatland type. Counts are, therefore, not mutually exclusive, and percentages are calculated as the number of studies reporting a given peatland type divided by the total number of included studies, such that percentages may exceed one hundred percent. Based on land cover conditions, studies solely investigating natural forest peatlands account for only 26% (n = 18) of total studies included in REA. Deforested, degraded, or converted peatlands, including drained, logged, or plantation systems, were reported on in 87 studies (73%). Natural non-forested peatlands, defined as peatlands not covered by forest vegetation, were reported in 5 studies (4%). With respect to topographic setting, lowland peatlands were addressed in 104 out of 117 studies included in the REA (89%), representing the dominant topographic context within the evidence base. In contrast, montane or higher-elevation peatlands were reported in 22 studies (19%), showing limited representation of montane peatland systems. Only 10 studies addressed both lowland and montane peatland settings, of which 2 studies are primary and field measurement based study. Coastal peatlands (lowland within 50 km of the coast) were explicitly reported in 58 studies (50%), typically in studies where peatland systems were influenced by proximity to the coast or marine processes. Inland peatlands were reported in 78 studies (67%). Where studies included both coastal and inland peatland settings, they were counted in both categories, consistent with the multi-category classification applied throughout this section. 3.3. Climate and Anthropogenic Stressors Reported across Regions The included studies reported a range of climate-related stressors (Fig. 6 .) associated with peatland carbon stocks. Individual studies frequently addressed more than one climate stressor. Counts are therefore not mutually exclusive, and percentages are calculated as the number of studies reporting a given stressor divided by the total number of included studies in REA, such that percentages may exceed 100%. Changes in precipitation regimes and drought were the most frequently reported climate stressors, identified in 72 studies (61% of studies included in REA; Fig. 3 ). Among these studies, 43 studies explicitly report an association with climate extremes linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Furthermore, these stressors were commonly reported in studies examining interannual variability, prolonged dry periods, or shift in rainfall seasonality. Temperature-related stressors, including warming trends or increased air and soil temperatures, were reported in 44 studies (37%). Although fire can be attributed to both climate and anthropogenic causes, it was reported in 50 studies (42% of the included studies in REA), often in the context of dry conditions or drought periods. Sea-level rise and peat subsidence each represents a smaller proportion of the evidence base, both reported with < 10 of the 117 studies. Land-cover change was widely reported across the included studies, reflecting transitions from natural peatland conditions to altered land uses. Deforestation and conversion, including agricultural development and plantation establishment, were reported in 63 studies (53.4%, Fig. 3 ). Drainage and hydrological modification were reported in 52 studies (44%), commonly in studies that also addressed land-use change, deforestation, agriculture or plantation. These stressors were documented together within the same studies (n = 48 studies), showing that multiple, co-occurring stressors were often examined within individual investigations. Only 13 studies investigated the impact of the livestock on the peatland carbon stock changes. 3.4 Land-cover Types and Topographical Patterns of Stressor Occurrence Precipitation- and drought-related stressors were widely examined across regions, but their relative emphasis varied when normalized by the total number of studies conducted in each region (Fig. 7 ). In Southeast Asia, these stressors were reported in 46 of 78 studies (59%). A higher proportional focus was observed in South America, where precipitation- and drought-related stressors were addressed in 21 of 26 studies (80.8%), and in Central America, where they were reported in 9 of 13 studies (69.2%). African peatland studies showed a comparable pattern, with 7 of 10 studies (70%) examining precipitation- and drought-related stressors. In contrast, temperature-related stressors exhibited a different regional focus. In South America, temperature-related stressors were reported in 16 of 26 studies (61.5%), while in Central America they were addressed in 9 of 13 studies (69.2%). Southeast Asia showed a substantially lower proportional focus on temperature-related stressors, with only 22 of 78 studies (28.2%) reporting temperature effects on peatland carbon stocks. Across all regions, subsidence-related stressors received comparatively limited attention, being reported in no more than approximately 15% of studies within any regional evidence base. Land-use change and drainage-related stressors were proportionally most prominent in Southeast Asia, where land-use change was reported in 48 of 78 studies (62%) and drainage in 43 studies (55%), showing a dominant emphasis on managed and hydrologically modified peatland systems within the regional evidence base. A similarly high proportional focus on these stressors was observed in Central America, with land-use change and drainage reported in 8 of 13 studies (62%) and 7 studies (54%), respectively, whereas South America exhibited a lower proportional emphasis on both stressors, with each reported in 8 of 26 studies (31%). In contrast, livestock-related stressors followed a distinctly different regional pattern, receiving the greatest proportional attention in South America (7 of 26 studies, 27%), followed by Central America (2 of 13 studies, 15%). Livestock-related stressors were comparatively rare in Southeast Asia and Africa, where they were reported in fewer than 10% of regional studies, showing limited representation of grazing-related pressures within the peatland carbon stock literature for these regions. When stressor occurrence was examined across topographic settings, contrasting patterns emerged between lowland and montane peatlands (Fig. 8 ). Precipitation- and drought-related stressors showed broadly comparable representation in both settings, being reported in 63 studies (61%) of lowland peatlands and in 15 studies (68%) of montane peatlands. In contrast, temperature-related stressors exhibited a strong topographic differentiation, with a substantially higher proportional focus in montane peatlands (16 studies, 73%) compared with lowland systems (37 studies, 36%). Anthropogenic stressors displayed similarly divergent patterns. Deforestation-related stressors were more frequently reported in lowland peatlands (46 studies, 44%) than in montane peatlands (5 studies, 23%), whereas livestock-related stressors showed the opposite pattern, being rarely reported in lowland peatlands (2 studies, 2%) but constituting a major focus of montane peatland studies (11 studies, 50%). When stressor occurrence was examined across peatland land-cover types, distinct patterns emerged between intact, degraded or converted, and natural non-forested peatlands. Of the 18 studies that included intact peatlands, only one study focused exclusively on intact systems, while the remaining studies examined intact peatlands in combination with degraded or converted peatlands, showing substantial land cover comparison in the included studies. Precipitation- and drought-related stressors were reported across all land-cover types, accounting for 14 studies (78%) in intact peatlands, 53 studies (61%) in degraded or converted peatlands, and 3 studies (60%) in natural non-forested peatlands. Temperature-related stressors were less prominent overall, being reported in 6 studies (33%) of intact peatland studies and 27 studies (31%) of degraded or converted peatland studies. ENSO-related stressors showed a strong association with intact peatlands, where they were reported in 13 studies (72%), compared with 34 studies (39%) in degraded or converted peatlands. Within the larger evidence base on degraded or converted peatlands (87%), drainage-related stressors were more prominent, reported in 47 studies (54%) than livestock-related stressors (11 studies, 13%). 4. Discussion Our REA shows the recent growth of research interest in tropical peatlands from 2015 onwards (Fig. 3 ). This may reflect the critical turning point in tropical peatland research following the catastrophic fire-induced carbon emission and haze events during severe El Niño drought in 2015. The event reportedly resulted in an estimation of 1.5 billion metric tons CO 2 equivalent greenhouse gas emission and around USD 28 billion economic loss (Field et al. 2018 ; Kiely et al. 2021 ). The available studies show various distributions of tropical peatlands across distinct regions and topographies, and even ecosystem states, making it difficult to generalize their vulnerability to climate change. Furthermore, climate change is also expressed differently across regions and highly modulated by topographies. Because of that, we divided our review of peatland carbon stocks vulnerability into three separate groups: 4.1. Regional vulnerability Based on studies included in our review, peatland carbon stocks of SE Asia are highly sensitive to prolonged drought that typically lead to massive carbon emission via enhanced oxidation and large-scale fire events, especially when paired with periods of high temperature (Fig. 7 ). Considering the projected reduced precipitation and longer dry period for Borneo and Sumatra islands, where the majority of SE Asian peatlands are located (Tangang et al., 2020 ; Supari et al., 2020), SE Asian peatlands will be highly vulnerable to future climate change. Their vulnerability will be exacerbated by a higher likelihood for more frequent and extreme climate events such as El Niño and positive IOD in the future warmer temperature, which is rising ca. 0.2°C per decade (Tangang et al., 2020 ; Supari et al., 2018; Cai et al., 2014 ). Meanwhile, the geographical nature of SE Asian peatlands, where majority are located in low lying coastal elevation, also increase their vulnerability to climate change through sea level rise related risks, driven by rapidly warming global temperature (Hapsari et al., 2022 ; Henman and Poulter 2008 ). Based on our review, studies dealing with peatlands in South/Central America mention temperature as a stressor for carbon stocks, enhancing evapotranspiration and oxidation (Fig. 7 ). Though limited, some studies also mentioned their susceptibility to erosion due to their large distribution on the floodplain of large and very active rivers (e.g., Girkin et al., 2022 ; Lähteenoja et al., 2009 ). Considering climate change will increase the mean air temperature (1.8–5.1°C by the end of this century) and the occurrence of intense precipitation, thus flash flood and river erosion, in the South American region (Zili et al., 2025; Zulkafli et al., 2016 ), peatland carbon stocks in South America will be highly vulnerable to future climate change. However, such increase in precipitation might benefit peatland development in suitable areas and also peat carbon accumulation at millennial timescale (Hastie et al., 2024 ; Wang et al., 2018 ). Though only based on limited studies in our REA (Fig. 4 ), African peatland carbon stocks are highly sensitive to temperature increase and changes in precipitation (Fig. 7 ). It has been reported that the occurrence of extreme drought in the Mid- to Late Holocene led to a period of widespread intense peat decomposition in the Congo region (Garcin et al., 2022 ). Meanwhile extreme precipitation events can lead to peat erosion driven by flooding or high river flow events (Burgin et al., 2025 ). Considering the projection of more frequent occurrence of extreme climatic events, i.e. longer dry spell and intense rainfall, and rapidly rising temperature (ca. 0.4°C per decade) in the region (Ranasinghe et al., 2021 ; Kendon et al., 2019 ; Davis-Reddy and Vincent, 2017 ), peatland carbon stocks in Africa are also highly vulnerable to future climate change. 4.2. Topographical vulnerability Based on studies included in our review, montane peatlands’ carbon stocks are reportedly vulnerable to temperature warming (Fig. 8 ) (Tassinari et al., 2025 ; Barral et al., 2023 ; Sánchez et al., 2017 ). Their vulnerability to temperature warming is likely higher than those in the lowlands, possibly because montane areas typically experience significantly faster warming (Hribljan et al., 2024 ; Benavides 2014 ). Some studies also mentioned that montane peatlands are likely less susceptible to changes in precipitation than those located on lowland areas due water recharge mechanisms from the surrounding slope and typically higher precipitation rates in mountainous regions (Supari et al., 2020; Cooper et al., 2019 ). However, in some mountainous regions, such as the Andes, increased drought is predicted in the future (Potter et al., 2023 ). On the other hand, carbon stocks of lowland peatland, especially those that are ombrotrophic, are reportedly highly sensitive to changes in precipitation (Hirano et al., 2024 ; Swindles et al., 2018 ). Reduced rainfall, prolonged dry periods, and changes in seasonality can disrupt lowland peatland water balance that is crucial to preserve the existing carbon stock and accumulate more carbon in the ecosystems (Cobb et al., 2017; Mezbahuddin et al., 2015 ). Also, many lowland peatlands are reportedly located on floodplain areas (Girkin et al., 2022 ; Cole et al., 2022 ), which make them sensitive to intense precipitation that could lead to erosion or prolonged flooding (Hapsari et al., 2017 ; Lähteenoja et al., 2009 ; Anshari et al., 2001 ). Whilst erosion could result in removal of the peat deposits, increasing carbon flux and mineralization (Somers et al., 2023 ; Wit et al., 2018 ), flooding could result in vegetation mortality or changes that can disrupt the ecosystems’ carbon balance (Könönen et al., 2018 ; Wösten et al., 2008 ). Limited studies also mentioned that carbon stocks vulnerability of lowland peatlands located in coastal areas, especially those in low-lying coastal elevation, is likely further compounded by sea level rise related risks, i.e., prolonged flooding and salinization (e.g., Hapsari et al., 2022 ; Saputra 2019 ). However, compared to those of lowland inland peatlands, carbon stocks of lowland coastal peatlands are probably less vulnerable to drought in the future. A hydrological model shows that their water table can be compensated by increased hydrological boundaries (river water level) driven by sea level rise, regardless of other risks posed. Such “benefit” will not extend to lowland peatlands in inland areas for they tend to have or be located at a higher elevation (Cobb et al., 2017). 4.3. Vulnerability based on the ecosystem states Based on the majority of the studies considered, carbon stocks of peatlands with natural or near natural condition (good forest, undrained) are less vulnerable to the different impacts of climate changes (prolonged drought, rising temperature, intense precipitation, extreme climate events, sea level rise) compared to degraded peatlands. This is generally the case for peatlands in all regions, elevation (lowland and montane), and with various vegetation cover (forested and dominated with sedges, grass, or cushion plants) (Deshmukh et al., 2021 ; Sánchez et al., 2017 ; García Lino et al., 2024 ). Natural peatlands are even deemed as fire-resistant ecosystems owing to their high humidity under peat swamp forest canopy and water saturated peat soil, making them extremely hard to burn (Page et al., 2016; Cole et al., 2015 ). Although natural or near natural analogues in our review mostly come from palaeoecological studies, similar conclusions are also derived in present-day ecological studies (Deshmukh et al., 2021 ; Nikonovas et al., 2020 ; Sánchez et al., 2017 ). Based on the studies included in the REA, carbon stocks of degraded peatlands are highly vulnerable to various climate change expressions through several mechanisms. During periods of prolonged drought and higher temperatures, degraded peatlands are generally more susceptible to combustion and uncontrollable above- and belowground fire spread. This is mainly due to a significant drop in peat water table as water rapidly evaporates and limited fire barrier function (below canopy humidity) in degraded peatlands (Deshmukh et al., 2021 ; Sinclair et al., 2019; Hirano et al., 2015 ). The same mechanisms also promote tropical peat decomposition that are typically limited by water saturation (Evans et al., 2019; Mezbahuddin et al., 2015 ; Hooijer et al., 2012 ). Degraded peatland carbon stocks are also more prone to enhanced decomposition by nutrient inputs either from agricultural fertilizer or cattle manures (Chaddy et al., 2025 ; Sánchez et al., 2017 ). During periods of extreme precipitation, degraded peatlands are more prone to erosion for they are drier and have weaker peat structure, typically provided by plant roots, enhancing peat carbon export and mineralization (Barral et al., 2023 ; Somers et al., 2023 ; Wit et al., 2018 ). Although based on limited studies, degraded peatlands are likely more prone to seawater intrusion for they have lower water table and pore volume, thus lateral water flow (Katimon et al., 2013 ). The studies also reported that drained peatland carbon stocks are more sensitive to climate change impacts than those of degraded but undrained peatlands. This is likely because undrained peatlands (those with logged forest, have large canopy gaps, heavily grazed, or trampled by humans or cattles, but without intentional ditching to force the water out of the systems) typically have higher water holding capacity (Hirano et al., 2015 ). In Southeast Asian regions, most of the peatlands are reportedly already degraded and drained which is mainly driven by conversion to agricultural land (plantations) and settlements (Dadap et al., 2021 ; Hoyt et al., 2020 ). While degradation of peatlands in South American and African regions are not as severe as in Southeast Asia (Fig. 7 ), they are increasingly threatened by development related to resource extraction such as gold and oil and hydropower plant (e.g., road and pipeline constructions, river damming) (Lawson et al., 2022 ; Girkin et al., 2022 ). In the Niger Delta, for example, ca. 30% of oil and gas fields are located on peat soil, posing a huge risk for hydrological disturbance and contamination from crude spills (Lawson et al., 2022 ). Degradation of lowland peatlands is also more often reported than of montane peatlands, according to our review (Fig. 8 ). This is likely due to their higher suitability for human occupation and generally higher population density (Miettinen et al., 2011 ). However, despite experiencing human-driven degradation in much less intensity than those of lowlands, montane peatland carbon stocks have become increasingly vulnerable to land use such as drainage, grazing, construction, peat extraction and mining activities (García Lino et al., 2024 ; Sánchez et al., 2017 ). 5. Limitations Despite the growing body of literature, significant gaps remain. Most studies are concentrated in Southeast Asia, while tropical peatlands in South and Central America and especially in Africa are underrepresented (Fig. 4 ). Studies on montane peatlands are also underrepresented (Table 1 ) and concentrated in South America. Furthermore, studies on peatlands in ‘natural state’ are limited (Fig. 5 ), which could be due to the rarity of and limited accessibility to natural peatlands in the present day. Research has also focused mainly on CO₂ fluxes, with limited evidence on other greenhouse gases such as CH₄ and N₂O. Long-term monitoring is scarce, as most studies are short-term or site-specific, possibly due to limited funding. Additionally, few studies explicitly address socio-economic or policy dimensions, limiting the translation of scientific findings into effective management and restoration strategies. We need to reiterate that our review may not completely represent all available information as some may not be captured by our search string. For example, a study conducted by Garcin et al, ( 2022 ) on peatlands in the Congo basin, despite being highly relevant to our research question, was not found in the initial search result. On the other hand, several studies that have low relevancy to our research questions were captured in our initial search result (Gopal et al., 2013; Fujimoto et al., 2001). This cautions that whilst rapid evidence assessment is likely sufficient to provide policy recommendation, more case studies and primary research and systematic reviews will be required for a more targeted policy intervention and implementation. 6. Conclusion and implications Despite growing numbers of available studies in tropical peatlands, vulnerability of tropical peatland carbon stocks remains difficult to generalize. This is mainly due to variation of peatland types and climate change expressions across the tropics and further compounded by sparse information for some peatlands. African and montane peatlands and peatlands under natural or near natural states are still underrepresented in the literature. Based on our review, the vulnerability of tropical peatland carbon stocks to climate change varies depending on how climate change is manifested in the region and topographical locations. However, we can conclude that degraded peatlands are most vulnerable to climate change regardless of their location (regional and topography). In regards to this, Southeast Asian peatland carbon stocks are most vulnerable to climate change across the tropics. Southeast Asia peatlands are mostly degraded and drained, making them vulnerable to prolonged and extreme drought, rising temperature, and sea level rise, all of which are projected to occur in the region. This review shows that preserving the remaining relatively intact tropical peatlands in South America and Africa is a crucial step in maintaining peatland carbon stocks in the tropics. Meanwhile, efforts to improve resilience of other tropical peatlands to climate change also need to be taken into account and require strategies specific to or tailored for the regions, topography, and ecosystem states. For this, more studies and information on underrepresented peatland ecosystems and regions, namely Africa and South/Central America, are undoubtedly needed. More detailed and reliable climate projections for the regions are also required. Additionally, considering the ecosystem states of tropical peatlands nowadays depends highly on the socioeconomic and political landscape around the ecosystems and even beyond, multiple perspectives including academics, local stakeholders, policy makers, and donors, need to be bridged and integrated. Declarations Acknowledgement KAH receives funding from the ERC grant (SaLtedPeat, Grant number 101220531). Financial and in-kind support for this research was provided by the British Academy, the United Nations Environment Programme Global Peatlands Initiative, the Institute for Methods Innovation (IMI) and Scotland’s Rural College (SRUC). 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Journal of Mountain Science , 22 (3), pp.820-837. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-024-8973-5 Thompson, P.R., M. J. Widlansky, E. Leuliette, D. P. Chambers, W. Sweet, B. D. Hamlington, S. Jevrejeva, M. A. Merrifield, G. T. Mitchum, and R. S. Nerem, 2023. Sea level variability and change [in “State of the Climate in 2022”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 104 (9), S159-S162.https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0076.2 Wang, S., Zhuang, Q., Lähteenoja, O., Draper, F.C., Cadillo-Quiroz, H. (2018). Potential shift from a carbon sink to a source in Amazonian peatlands under a changing climate. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(49), 12407-12412. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1801317115 Warren, M., Hergoualc’h, K., Kauffman, J. B., Murdiyarso, D., & Kolka, R. (2017a). An appraisal of Indonesia’s immense peat carbon stock using national peatland maps: Uncertainties and potential losses from conversion . Carbon Balance and Management, 12(1), 12. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-017-0080-2 Warren, M., Frolking, S., Dai, Z., & Kurnianto, S. (2017b). Impacts of land use, restoration, and climate change on tropical peat carbon stocks in the twenty-first century: implications for climate mitigation. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change , 22 (7), 1041-1061. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-016-9712-1 Webb, J. A., Schofield, K., Cook, C., Fisher, J. R., et al. (2026). A Standardized Definition of Rapid Evidence Assessment for Environmental Applications. Conservation Letters, 19(1). https://doi.org/10.1111/con4.70005 Wit, F., Rixen, T., Baum, A., Pranowo, W.S. and Hutahaean, A.A., 2018. The Invisible Carbon Footprint as a hidden impact of peatland degradation inducing marine carbonate dissolution in Sumatra, Indonesia. Scientific Reports , 8 (1), p.17403. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-35769-7 Wösten, J.H.M., Clymans, E., Page, S.E., Rieley, J.O. and Limin, S.H., 2008. Peat–water interrelationships in a tropical peatland ecosystem in Southeast Asia. Catena , 73 (2), pp.212-224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2007.07.010 Xu, J., Morris, P. J., Liu, J., & Holden, J. (2018). PEATMAP: Refining estimates of global peatland distribution based on a meta-analysis . CATENA, 160, 134–140.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2017.09.010 Yu, Z., Beilman, D. W., Frolking, S., MacDonald, G. M., Roulet, N. T., Camill, P., & Charman, D. J. (2011). Peatlands and their role in the global carbon cycle . Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 92(12), 97. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011EO120001 Yule, C.M., 2010. Loss of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in Indo-Malayan peat swamp forests. Biodiversity and conservation, 19(2), pp.393-409. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011EO120001 Zhang, W., Clark, R., Zhou, T., Li, L., Li, C., Rivera, J., Zhang, L., Gui, K., Zhang, T., Li, L. and Pan, R. (2024). 2023: Weather and Climate Extremes Hitting the Globe with Emerging Features. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 41, 1001–1016 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4080-3 Zilli, M. T., Hart, N. C. G., Halladay, K., Kahana, R. (2025). Threefold increase in most intense South Atlantic convergence zone events by 2100 in convection-permitting simulation. Environmental Research Letters, 20, 074045. https://10.1088/1748-9326/ade16e Zulkafli, Z., Buytaert, W., Manz, B., Rosas, C. V., Willems, P., Lavado-Casimiro, W., Guyot, J., Santini, W. (2016). Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the Western Amazon. Environmental Research Letters, 11 014013. https://10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014013 Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8751727","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Systematic Review","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":583763962,"identity":"5bb0c612-33fc-4c55-9183-09f1a69d1d28","order_by":0,"name":"Sofyan Kurnianto","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8219-7534","institution":"Asia Pacific Resources International Ltd., Pelalawan Regency, Indonesia","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sofyan","middleName":"","lastName":"Kurnianto","suffix":""},{"id":583764010,"identity":"38a0de1a-3982-4343-892c-0d4f17d56beb","order_by":1,"name":"Clemens von Scheffer","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPCCAwzszQcYGD7A+DzEaOE5lsDAOINkLcxwlfi08M9IPvbwR80dOR425mOfbX7ZyOm2n33A8KYCtxaJG2npxjzHnhnzsLElz87tSzM2O5NuwDjnDG4tBjxnzKQZGw4n7pfvMWbO7TmcuO1AGgMzbxt+LZI/Gw7X97Dxf2a27PmfuO38M6CWf3i0sPeYSfA2HE7gYeNhZmb4cSBx2w2QLQ14/HK8LU2a59hhwx42NmPG3oZkY7MbzxgOzjmGWwt/M/MxyR81h+WBIfaY4ccfOzmz82mMD97U4NaCChihvj5ArAYg+EOC2lEwCkbBKBgxAABck1ClVtgf1gAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8211-0518","institution":"GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Wischhofstraße 1-3, 24148 Kiel, Germany","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Clemens","middleName":"","lastName":"von Scheffer","suffix":""},{"id":583764036,"identity":"1e746cba-6d3e-4418-8c53-75beaf339428","order_by":2,"name":"Mario Alaluna","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Instituto de Biologia del Suelo, Lima, Peru","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mario","middleName":"","lastName":"Alaluna","suffix":""},{"id":583764255,"identity":"85bc62f7-e2bf-4002-b6fd-a9e3667f5c84","order_by":3,"name":"Diwakar Kumar","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Science \u0026 Technology, Centre for Policy Research, National Institute of Science Education \u0026 Research- Bhubaneswar, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, PO- Bhimpur-Padanpur, PIN- 752050, Via- Jatni, District:- Khurda, Odisha, India","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Diwakar","middleName":"","lastName":"Kumar","suffix":""},{"id":583764256,"identity":"81f64aed-f764-4225-a45f-491db356d195","order_by":4,"name":"Frantz Zebaze","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Geography, University of Yaoundé I, Yaoundé, Cameroon","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Frantz","middleName":"","lastName":"Zebaze","suffix":""},{"id":583764257,"identity":"f5df9a47-4c66-4f87-8c89-7df7c827b7f4","order_by":5,"name":"K. Anggi Hapsari","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8328-4771","institution":"University of Göttingen, Albrecht-von-Haller Institute, Wetland Ecosystem Research Group, Göttingen Germany","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"K.","middleName":"Anggi","lastName":"Hapsari","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-31 17:49:31","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8751727/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8751727/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101759157,"identity":"70f1cb88-5d21-489b-a747-04b2686339b3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 11:09:58","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":6552099,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ea.\u003c/strong\u003e Palm swamp \u003cem\u003e(aguajal) \u003c/em\u003edominated by \u003cem\u003eMauritia flexuosa \u003c/em\u003ein the province of Tahuamanu, Madre de Dios, Peru.; \u003cstrong\u003eb.\u003c/strong\u003eConverted forested peatland in Yantaló (San Martín, Peru), currently used as pasture.; \u003cstrong\u003ec.\u003c/strong\u003e Forested tropical peatland environment in Yantaló (San Martín, Peru); \u003cstrong\u003ed.\u003c/strong\u003e Trees growing on \u003cem\u003eaguajal\u003c/em\u003e in the Los Amigos Private Conservation Area, Madre de Dios, Peru.;\u003cstrong\u003e e.\u003c/strong\u003e Peat soil in a forested tropical peatland in the Los Amigos Private Conservation Area, Madre de Dios, Peru.; \u003cstrong\u003ef.\u003c/strong\u003e Black water (humic acid rich) river draining a forested tropical peatland in Sumatra, Indonesia\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8751727/v1/d7f6748c69cd0f8b8c0daf3f.png"},{"id":101758559,"identity":"6648bd5b-ae1a-42d7-80b4-d6447e62c0a1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 11:07:46","extension":"jpg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":438422,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003ePRISMA flow diagram illustrating the identification, screening, eligibility assessment, and inclusion of studies in the rapid evidence assessment\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure2.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8751727/v1/14858b5adeaaf586ab57d1f1.jpg"},{"id":101758466,"identity":"37968362-232e-4744-a9c5-6e40b72ea846","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 11:07:23","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":206508,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eTemporal scope and numbers of the studies.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8751727/v1/a80431ca750dd307facc8d2f.png"},{"id":101758683,"identity":"381185e8-e9bc-454e-9f90-03c1705e524f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 11:08:06","extension":"jpg","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":219213,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;Distribution of regions considered in the studies included in the REA South-East Asia (blue), South America (green), Central America (orange), Africa (purple) and ‘Other’ (red). The percentages are not mutually exclusive, since several studies investigate multiple regions (e.g. reviews).\u003c/strong\u003eDistribution of regions considered in the studies included in the REA South-East Asia (blue), South America (green), Central America (orange), Africa (purple) and ‘Other’ (red). The percentages are not mutually exclusive, since several studies investigate multiple regions (e.g. reviews).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure4.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8751727/v1/34d063f7536c4fd4c5b56511.jpg"},{"id":101758562,"identity":"16cef05c-e3c9-4f9b-8755-ac855e4f7922","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 11:07:47","extension":"jpg","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":209014,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eNumbers of peatland types considered in the final selection of studies in the REA, based on their state.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure5.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8751727/v1/7689fff6614b1253fd0006d6.jpg"},{"id":101758483,"identity":"bda6c1f3-7ec2-4f7b-ad48-4e0c98ce9316","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 11:07:32","extension":"jpg","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":346704,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFrequency of climate and anthropogenic stressors reported across the studies included in the Rapid Evidence Assessment. Bars indicate the number of studies reporting each stressor. Counts are not mutually exclusive because individual studies may address multiple stressors, with the total of included studies in Rapid Evidence Assessment was 117.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure6.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8751727/v1/b38c08a1b95bffb030ba9f66.jpg"},{"id":101758561,"identity":"9059739a-74a6-4241-80f7-d8e68ec7e8c4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 11:07:46","extension":"jpg","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":312505,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eRegional focus of climate-related and anthropogenic stressors affecting tropical peatland carbon stocks. Cell values indicate the percentage of studies within each region reporting a given stressor, normalised by the total number of studies conducted in that region. Darker shading indicates a higher proportional research focus. Values are not mutually exclusive.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure7.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8751727/v1/8d59c1b4bd06f38188f89e6d.jpg"},{"id":101758419,"identity":"4a2d7ce8-4aee-4e82-9d2e-6236116e12c1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 11:07:09","extension":"jpg","order_by":8,"title":"Figure 8","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":247320,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eProportional occurrence of climate and anthropogenic stressors across lowland and montane tropical peatlands. Values represent the percentage of studies within each topographic setting reporting a given stressor, normalised by setting. Darker shading indicates a higher proportional research focus. Values are not mutually exclusive.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure8.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8751727/v1/3f5838a3992d9957253dda92.jpg"},{"id":101760404,"identity":"7a4fd2b0-067c-47d0-b8f8-8e16bb26ee33","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 11:14:38","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":12545638,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8751727/v1/27f1f36c-3de2-44ad-8c63-5b38b25d1f18.pdf"},{"id":101758480,"identity":"088041ea-20b2-44d7-bd3d-3b031bbf5d13","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 11:07:32","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":31156,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSupplementary Information\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Supplementaryinformation.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8751727/v1/dd16119dc556e9707edf49d2.docx"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTropical peatlands carbon stocks’ vulnerability to climate change: A rapid evidence assessment\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[{"header":"1. Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003ePeatlands are important ecosystems that provide many services and functions, including water regulation, pollution retention, and habitat provisioning for biodiversity (Husson et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR38\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e; Rieley et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR58\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e). Peatlands also play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle (Ribeiro et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR57\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; Yu et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR77\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e). They store around 30\u0026ndash;40% of global soil C pool within only 3% of the Earth\u0026rsquo;s land surface, placing them as the most C dense ecosystem on earth (Page et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR53\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e; Xu et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR76\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). While peatlands are distributed mainly in the boreal and temperate zones, large peatland areas are also found in the tropics, storing around 15% of global peat C stocks or between 50 and 105 Gt C (Dargie et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e; Page et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR53\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eApproximately 33.4 to 57.8 Mha of peatlands are distributed across the tropical regions, mainly in Southeast Asia, South America, and the Central Congo Basin (Warren et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR71\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017a\u003c/span\u003e; Xu et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR76\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e), storing over 2100 t C per ha (Kauffman et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR42\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e). Tropical peatlands are typically covered in dense swamp trees or palms, although some are also grown with sedges, herbaceous or cushion plants (Chimner and Karberg, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e; Cole et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e) (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). Tropical peatlands are also typically located on lowland area, ranging from coastal plains, floodplains along rivers or lakes, and depression with poor drainage (Cole et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e; Girkin et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e), but some can also be found on highland and mountain areas but in much smaller extent (e.g. Chimner and Karberg, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e; Hope, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR36\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). Nowadays, the heterogeneity of tropical peatlands are further enhanced by anthropogenic impacts (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePeatlands store their C mainly in their belowground peat substrate that formed from accumulation of partially decomposed organic matter (OM) (Page et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR53\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e). Unlike the high latitude peatlands where their preservation is mainly promoted by low-temperature, tropical peatland relies heavily on their rainfall-induced waterlogged environment to prevent rapid OM decomposition under high temperature (Hodgkins et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). This makes them highly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWith a continuously large amount of anthropogenic emission over the past few decades, global temperature has been rising, reaching more than 1.5\u0026deg;C above the pre-industrial level in 2024 (Copernicus, 2025). This has led to changes in precipitation regimes and occurrence of extreme weather events (Zhang et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR79\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). Worldwide, heatwaves, prolonged drought, floods, and hurricanes are observed more frequently and become more intense, including the tropical regions (Redlin and Gries, 2021). Furthermore, melting ice sheets and seawater thermal expansion have been contributing to an increase in global sea level (Thompson et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR69\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e), posing threats to small islands and low-lying coastal areas.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll of these will undoubtedly impact peatlands\u0026rsquo; ecosystems across the tropics, especially their functions to store C (Cobb et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e; Warren et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR72\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017b\u003c/span\u003e). However, due to wide variation of topography, geomorphological process and vegetation cover of tropical peatlands, the impact of climate change on peatland C stocks is likely to vary. This is particularly true considering changes in peatland ecosystem states due to widespread and extensive anthropogenic modification across the tropics (Girkin et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e; Mishra et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR50\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; Roucoux et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR59\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). Also, climate change expressions and manifestations are not uniform across the tropical region and geographic settings (Sa\u0026rsquo;adi et al., 2023; IPCC \u003cspan citationid=\"CR40\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhile hundreds of studies have been conducted on tropical peatlands all over the globe on carbon cycling, ecosystem changes or dynamics, environmental drivers, etc. (e.g., Garcia Lino et al., 2024; Hawthorne et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR29\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e; Deshmukh et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e), there is a lack of overview to understand the vulnerability of tropical peatland carbon stocks to climate change in various ecosystem settings. Such understanding is important for the decision making process in, for example, setting urgent intervention, allocating limited resources, or prioritizing measures. Considering that the impacts of climate change manifest faster and more severely than previously projected (IFoA and University of Exeter \u003cspan citationid=\"CR39\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2026\u003c/span\u003e; Hansen et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR25\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e), immediate policy-led actions become critical to minimize the consequence of climate change induced peat C loss in the tropics. This rapid evidence assessment (REA) identifies the existing studies and knowledge gaps on tropical peatlands, specifically those most vulnerable to the loss of carbon stocks due to climate change.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2.\tMethod","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.1. Study Design and Literature Search\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe conducted an REA (Webb et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR73\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2026\u003c/span\u003e) to systematically identify and synthesise peer-reviewed studies examining tropical peatlands and their carbon vulnerability under climate and anthropogenic stressors. The REA approach was selected to enable a transparent and reproducible synthesis of a heterogeneous literature, while allowing quantitative identification of patterns and gaps in the existing evidence base rather than estimation of effect sizes or mechanistic responses.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe literature search was performed using two major bibliographic databases, Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus. Search strings combined terms related to tropical peatlands with terms describing carbon stocks and climate-related and anthropogenic drivers, including carbon dynamics, climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, land-use change, drainage, fire, and sea-level rise. The full search string and database query details are provided in the Supplementary Information. Searches were restricted to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll retrieved records were imported into a reference management system, where duplicate records were removed prior to screening. The screening process was conducted in three sequential stages: title screening, abstract screening, and full-text assessment. Studies were included if they addressed tropical peatlands and reported empirical data, model outputs, or syntheses relevant to peatland carbon stocks, greenhouse gas emissions, degradation, or restoration in the context of climatic or anthropogenic drivers. Studies were excluded if they focused exclusively on non-tropical regions, did not report carbon- or climate-related variables, consisted of non-peer-reviewed literature (including reports, theses, conference proceedings, or book chapters), were published in languages other than English, or were inaccessible due to paywalls or lack of availability. The full list of included studies is provided in the Supplementary Information.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.2. Data Extraction and Analysis\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eFor each included study, bibliographic information and key study characteristics were systematically extracted and coded into a structured spreadsheet. Extracted variables included publication year, study type (primary research or review), geographic region, peatland land-cover type, topographic setting, and reported climate-related and anthropogenic stressors. Regions were coded using binary indicators, allowing studies to be assigned to more than one region where applicable. Peatland land-cover types were classified as intact peatlands, degraded or converted peatlands, and natural non-forested peatlands, with studies permitted to be assigned to multiple categories. Topographic settings were coded as lowland or montane peatlands, with coastal and inland settings coded separately where reported.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eClimate-related and anthropogenic stressors were coded using binary variable for precipitation or drought, temperature, ENSO-related variability, fire, sea-level rise, peat subsidence, land-use change, deforestation, drainage, livestock, plantation or agricultural development, and other reported stressors. A single study could be associated with multiple stressors and multiple peatland contexts.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative synthesis was conducted using the coded binary variables only. Descriptive statistics were used to summarise the composition of the evidence base by region, peatland type, topographic setting, and stressor. Cross-tabulations were performed to examine the distribution of stressors across regions, topographic settings, and peatland land-cover types. Because individual studies could address multiple regions, peatland types, or stressors, counts were not mutually exclusive, and proportions could exceed 100 percent when summed across categories. To assess regional and peatland types emphasis, stressor-specific proportions were normalised by the total number of studies conducted in each region or peatland types rather than by the global study total.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eResults are reported as counts and proportions of studies addressing specific stressors within defined regional, topographic, and land-cover contexts. The Results section focuses on identifying spatial clustering and systematic absences in the evidence base, while interpretation of these patterns in relation to peatland carbon vulnerability and implications for research and policy is reserved for the Discussion.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3. Results","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec6\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.1. Overview of Included Studies\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eA total of 651 records were identified through database searches in Web of Science and Scopus. After removing 18 duplicate records, 633 records were screened based on title and abstract, of which 366 records were excluded because they did not address tropical peatlands, were available only as abstracts, or were not relevant to the research objectives. Subsequently, 266 studies were sought for retrieval and another 70 studies were sorted out because they were book chapters or conference proceedings or could not be accessed due to paywall restrictions or unavailability. The remaining 196 studies were assessed for eligibility, leading to exclusion of 79 studies that did not meet the inclusion criteria, mainly due to the absence of carbon stock data, lack of relevance to peatland ecosystems, or methodological limitations. In total, 117 studies met all eligibility criteria and were included in the Rapid Evidence Assessment. Figure\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e illustrates the PRISMA flow diagram detailing the number of records identified, screened, excluded, and ultimately included in the Rapid Evidence Assessment, along with the main reasons for exclusion at each stage.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary of studies included in the Rapid Evidence Assessment by region, land cover types, topographic setting, natural and anthropogenic stressors\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"4\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCategory\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSub-category\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNumber of studies\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePercentage of total studies\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"4\" rowspan=\"5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eRegion\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSoutheast Asia\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e78\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e66.7\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSouth\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAmerica\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e26\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e22.2\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCentral\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAmerica\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e13\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAfrica\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e10\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eOther\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eregions\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e10\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"3\" rowspan=\"4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePeatland land-cover type\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntact peatlands\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e18\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDegraded\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e/ converted peatlands\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e87\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e74.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNatural\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003enon-forested peatlands\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eUnclassified\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e/ unclear\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e29\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e24.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"3\" rowspan=\"4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTopsetting\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLowland peatlands\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e104\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e88.9\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMontane\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003epeatlands\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e22\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCoastal\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003epeatlands\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e59\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e50.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eInland\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003epeatlands\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e78\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e66.7\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"1\" rowspan=\"2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eStudy type\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrimary research\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e94\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e80.3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eReview\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003estudies\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e23\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e19.7\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcross the Results section, individual studies may report multiple peatland types, stressors, or environmental conditions. Counts are therefore not mutually exclusive, and percentages are calculated as the number of studies reporting a given characteristic divided by the total number of included studies. As a result, percentages reported across categories may exceed one hundred percent.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe publication years of the included studies range from 2004 to 2025, with a median publication year of 2020 and an interquartile range of 2017 to 2022. Most studies were published in the last decade, with approximately 84% of the evidence base appearing from 2015 onward, with no publications identified for 2013 (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe included literature was dominated by primary research articles, which accounted for 95 studies (80.5%), while review studies accounted for 24 studies (20.3%). Primary studies were largely based on field measurements, experimental observations, or empirical dataset and most investigations employed field based measurements in combination with peat or vegetation sampling, laboratory analyses, remote sensing, and modelling approaches. Methods were frequently reported using heterogeneous terminology, and multiple approaches were often applied within individual studies. Review studies synthesised findings from previously published empirical work across sites, regions, or peatland types.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe geographic distribution of studies was highly uneven, with Southeast Asia accounting for approximately 67% of the included studies, followed by South America (21%) and Central America (11%), while Africa and Pacific or other regions each contributed approximately 8%. Although the regional counts sum to 136, percentages were calculated based on the number of unique studies included in the analysis (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;117), as some studies investigated more than one region.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec7\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.2. Representation of Peatland Types\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe included studies represented multiple peatland types, reflecting variation in land cover condition, topographic setting, and coastal influence across the evidence base. Individual studies frequently addressed more than one peatland type. Counts are, therefore, not mutually exclusive, and percentages are calculated as the number of studies reporting a given peatland type divided by the total number of included studies, such that percentages may exceed one hundred percent.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBased on land cover conditions, studies solely investigating natural forest peatlands account for only 26% (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;18) of total studies included in REA. Deforested, degraded, or converted peatlands, including drained, logged, or plantation systems, were reported on in 87 studies (73%). Natural non-forested peatlands, defined as peatlands not covered by forest vegetation, were reported in 5 studies (4%).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWith respect to topographic setting, lowland peatlands were addressed in 104 out of 117 studies included in the REA (89%), representing the dominant topographic context within the evidence base. In contrast, montane or higher-elevation peatlands were reported in 22 studies (19%), showing limited representation of montane peatland systems. Only 10 studies addressed both lowland and montane peatland settings, of which 2 studies are primary and field measurement based study.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCoastal peatlands (lowland within 50 km of the coast) were explicitly reported in 58 studies (50%), typically in studies where peatland systems were influenced by proximity to the coast or marine processes. Inland peatlands were reported in 78 studies (67%). Where studies included both coastal and inland peatland settings, they were counted in both categories, consistent with the multi-category classification applied throughout this section.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.3. Climate and Anthropogenic Stressors Reported across Regions\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe included studies reported a range of climate-related stressors (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig6\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e.) associated with peatland carbon stocks. Individual studies frequently addressed more than one climate stressor. Counts are therefore not mutually exclusive, and percentages are calculated as the number of studies reporting a given stressor divided by the total number of included studies in REA, such that percentages may exceed 100%.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChanges in precipitation regimes and drought were the most frequently reported climate stressors, identified in 72 studies (61% of studies included in REA; Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e). Among these studies, 43 studies explicitly report an association with climate extremes linked to El Ni\u0026ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation. Furthermore, these stressors were commonly reported in studies examining interannual variability, prolonged dry periods, or shift in rainfall seasonality. Temperature-related stressors, including warming trends or increased air and soil temperatures, were reported in 44 studies (37%). Although fire can be attributed to both climate and anthropogenic causes, it was reported in 50 studies (42% of the included studies in REA), often in the context of dry conditions or drought periods. Sea-level rise and peat subsidence each represents a smaller proportion of the evidence base, both reported with \u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;10 of the 117 studies.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLand-cover change was widely reported across the included studies, reflecting transitions from natural peatland conditions to altered land uses. Deforestation and conversion, including agricultural development and plantation establishment, were reported in 63 studies (53.4%, Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e). Drainage and hydrological modification were reported in 52 studies (44%), commonly in studies that also addressed land-use change, deforestation, agriculture or plantation. These stressors were documented together within the same studies (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;48 studies), showing that multiple, co-occurring stressors were often examined within individual investigations. Only 13 studies investigated the impact of the livestock on the peatland carbon stock changes.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.4 Land-cover Types and Topographical Patterns of Stressor Occurrence\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrecipitation- and drought-related stressors were widely examined across regions, but their relative emphasis varied when normalized by the total number of studies conducted in each region (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e). In Southeast Asia, these stressors were reported in 46 of 78 studies (59%). A higher proportional focus was observed in South America, where precipitation- and drought-related stressors were addressed in 21 of 26 studies (80.8%), and in Central America, where they were reported in 9 of 13 studies (69.2%). African peatland studies showed a comparable pattern, with 7 of 10 studies (70%) examining precipitation- and drought-related stressors. In contrast, temperature-related stressors exhibited a different regional focus. In South America, temperature-related stressors were reported in 16 of 26 studies (61.5%), while in Central America they were addressed in 9 of 13 studies (69.2%). Southeast Asia showed a substantially lower proportional focus on temperature-related stressors, with only 22 of 78 studies (28.2%) reporting temperature effects on peatland carbon stocks. Across all regions, subsidence-related stressors received comparatively limited attention, being reported in no more than approximately 15% of studies within any regional evidence base.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLand-use change and drainage-related stressors were proportionally most prominent in Southeast Asia, where land-use change was reported in 48 of 78 studies (62%) and drainage in 43 studies (55%), showing a dominant emphasis on managed and hydrologically modified peatland systems within the regional evidence base. A similarly high proportional focus on these stressors was observed in Central America, with land-use change and drainage reported in 8 of 13 studies (62%) and 7 studies (54%), respectively, whereas South America exhibited a lower proportional emphasis on both stressors, with each reported in 8 of 26 studies (31%). In contrast, livestock-related stressors followed a distinctly different regional pattern, receiving the greatest proportional attention in South America (7 of 26 studies, 27%), followed by Central America (2 of 13 studies, 15%). Livestock-related stressors were comparatively rare in Southeast Asia and Africa, where they were reported in fewer than 10% of regional studies, showing limited representation of grazing-related pressures within the peatland carbon stock literature for these regions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhen stressor occurrence was examined across topographic settings, contrasting patterns emerged between lowland and montane peatlands (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e). Precipitation- and drought-related stressors showed broadly comparable representation in both settings, being reported in 63 studies (61%) of lowland peatlands and in 15 studies (68%) of montane peatlands. In contrast, temperature-related stressors exhibited a strong topographic differentiation, with a substantially higher proportional focus in montane peatlands (16 studies, 73%) compared with lowland systems (37 studies, 36%). Anthropogenic stressors displayed similarly divergent patterns. Deforestation-related stressors were more frequently reported in lowland peatlands (46 studies, 44%) than in montane peatlands (5 studies, 23%), whereas livestock-related stressors showed the opposite pattern, being rarely reported in lowland peatlands (2 studies, 2%) but constituting a major focus of montane peatland studies (11 studies, 50%).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhen stressor occurrence was examined across peatland land-cover types, distinct patterns emerged between intact, degraded or converted, and natural non-forested peatlands. Of the 18 studies that included intact peatlands, only one study focused exclusively on intact systems, while the remaining studies examined intact peatlands in combination with degraded or converted peatlands, showing substantial land cover comparison in the included studies. Precipitation- and drought-related stressors were reported across all land-cover types, accounting for 14 studies (78%) in intact peatlands, 53 studies (61%) in degraded or converted peatlands, and 3 studies (60%) in natural non-forested peatlands. Temperature-related stressors were less prominent overall, being reported in 6 studies (33%) of intact peatland studies and 27 studies (31%) of degraded or converted peatland studies. ENSO-related stressors showed a strong association with intact peatlands, where they were reported in 13 studies (72%), compared with 34 studies (39%) in degraded or converted peatlands. Within the larger evidence base on degraded or converted peatlands (87%), drainage-related stressors were more prominent, reported in 47 studies (54%) than livestock-related stressors (11 studies, 13%).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"4. Discussion ","content":"\u003cp\u003eOur REA shows the recent growth of research interest in tropical peatlands from 2015 onwards (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e). This may reflect the critical turning point in tropical peatland research following the catastrophic fire-induced carbon emission and haze events during severe El Ni\u0026ntilde;o drought in 2015. The event reportedly resulted in an estimation of 1.5\u0026nbsp;billion metric tons CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e equivalent greenhouse gas emission and around USD 28\u0026nbsp;billion economic loss (Field et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e; Kiely et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR44\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe available studies show various distributions of tropical peatlands across distinct regions and topographies, and even ecosystem states, making it difficult to generalize their vulnerability to climate change. Furthermore, climate change is also expressed differently across regions and highly modulated by topographies. Because of that, we divided our review of peatland carbon stocks vulnerability into three separate groups:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec11\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.1. Regional vulnerability\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eBased on studies included in our review, peatland carbon stocks of SE Asia are highly sensitive to prolonged drought that typically lead to massive carbon emission via enhanced oxidation and large-scale fire events, especially when paired with periods of high temperature (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e). Considering the projected reduced precipitation and longer dry period for Borneo and Sumatra islands, where the majority of SE Asian peatlands are located (Tangang et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR67\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e; Supari et al., 2020), SE Asian peatlands will be highly vulnerable to future climate change. Their vulnerability will be exacerbated by a higher likelihood for more frequent and extreme climate events such as El Ni\u0026ntilde;o and positive IOD in the future warmer temperature, which is rising ca. 0.2\u0026deg;C per decade (Tangang et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR67\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e; Supari et al., 2018; Cai et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR5\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e). Meanwhile, the geographical nature of SE Asian peatlands, where majority are located in low lying coastal elevation, also increase their vulnerability to climate change through sea level rise related risks, driven by rapidly warming global temperature (Hapsari et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e; Henman and Poulter \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBased on our review, studies dealing with peatlands in South/Central America mention temperature as a stressor for carbon stocks, enhancing evapotranspiration and oxidation (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e). Though limited, some studies also mentioned their susceptibility to erosion due to their large distribution on the floodplain of large and very active rivers (e.g., Girkin et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e; L\u0026auml;hteenoja et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR46\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2009\u003c/span\u003e). Considering climate change will increase the mean air temperature (1.8\u0026ndash;5.1\u0026deg;C by the end of this century) and the occurrence of intense precipitation, thus flash flood and river erosion, in the South American region (Zili et al., 2025; Zulkafli et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR81\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e), peatland carbon stocks in South America will be highly vulnerable to future climate change. However, such increase in precipitation might benefit peatland development in suitable areas and also peat carbon accumulation at millennial timescale (Hastie et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e; Wang et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR70\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThough only based on limited studies in our REA (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e), African peatland carbon stocks are highly sensitive to temperature increase and changes in precipitation (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e). It has been reported that the occurrence of extreme drought in the Mid- to Late Holocene led to a period of widespread intense peat decomposition in the Congo region (Garcin et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). Meanwhile extreme precipitation events can lead to peat erosion driven by flooding or high river flow events (Burgin et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e). Considering the projection of more frequent occurrence of extreme climatic events, i.e. longer dry spell and intense rainfall, and rapidly rising temperature (ca. 0.4\u0026deg;C per decade) in the region (Ranasinghe et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR55\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; Kendon et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR43\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e; Davis-Reddy and Vincent, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR15\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e), peatland carbon stocks in Africa are also highly vulnerable to future climate change.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec12\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.2. Topographical vulnerability\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eBased on studies included in our review, montane peatlands\u0026rsquo; carbon stocks are reportedly vulnerable to temperature warming (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e) (Tassinari et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR68\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e; Barral et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e; S\u0026aacute;nchez et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR61\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). Their vulnerability to temperature warming is likely higher than those in the lowlands, possibly because montane areas typically experience significantly faster warming (Hribljan et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e; Benavides \u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e). Some studies also mentioned that montane peatlands are likely less susceptible to changes in precipitation than those located on lowland areas due water recharge mechanisms from the surrounding slope and typically higher precipitation rates in mountainous regions (Supari et al., 2020; Cooper et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). However, in some mountainous regions, such as the Andes, increased drought is predicted in the future (Potter et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR54\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOn the other hand, carbon stocks of lowland peatland, especially those that are ombrotrophic, are reportedly highly sensitive to changes in precipitation (Hirano et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e; Swindles et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR65\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). Reduced rainfall, prolonged dry periods, and changes in seasonality can disrupt lowland peatland water balance that is crucial to preserve the existing carbon stock and accumulate more carbon in the ecosystems (Cobb et al., 2017; Mezbahuddin et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR48\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). Also, many lowland peatlands are reportedly located on floodplain areas (Girkin et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e; Cole et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e), which make them sensitive to intense precipitation that could lead to erosion or prolonged flooding (Hapsari et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR26\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e; L\u0026auml;hteenoja et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR46\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2009\u003c/span\u003e; Anshari et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2001\u003c/span\u003e). Whilst erosion could result in removal of the peat deposits, increasing carbon flux and mineralization (Somers et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR64\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e; Wit et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR74\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e), flooding could result in vegetation mortality or changes that can disrupt the ecosystems\u0026rsquo; carbon balance (K\u0026ouml;n\u0026ouml;nen et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR45\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e; W\u0026ouml;sten et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR75\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLimited studies also mentioned that carbon stocks vulnerability of lowland peatlands located in coastal areas, especially those in low-lying coastal elevation, is likely further compounded by sea level rise related risks, i.e., prolonged flooding and salinization (e.g., Hapsari et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e; Saputra \u003cspan citationid=\"CR62\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). However, compared to those of lowland inland peatlands, carbon stocks of lowland coastal peatlands are probably less vulnerable to drought in the future. A hydrological model shows that their water table can be compensated by increased hydrological boundaries (river water level) driven by sea level rise, regardless of other risks posed. Such \u0026ldquo;benefit\u0026rdquo; will not extend to lowland peatlands in inland areas for they tend to have or be located at a higher elevation (Cobb et al., 2017).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec13\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.3. Vulnerability based on the ecosystem states\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eBased on the majority of the studies considered, carbon stocks of peatlands with natural or near natural condition (good forest, undrained) are less vulnerable to the different impacts of climate changes (prolonged drought, rising temperature, intense precipitation, extreme climate events, sea level rise) compared to degraded peatlands. This is generally the case for peatlands in all regions, elevation (lowland and montane), and with various vegetation cover (forested and dominated with sedges, grass, or cushion plants) (Deshmukh et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; S\u0026aacute;nchez et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR61\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e; Garc\u0026iacute;a Lino et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). Natural peatlands are even deemed as fire-resistant ecosystems owing to their high humidity under peat swamp forest canopy and water saturated peat soil, making them extremely hard to burn (Page et al., 2016; Cole et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). Although natural or near natural analogues in our review mostly come from palaeoecological studies, similar conclusions are also derived in present-day ecological studies (Deshmukh et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; Nikonovas et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR51\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e; S\u0026aacute;nchez et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR61\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBased on the studies included in the REA, carbon stocks of degraded peatlands are highly vulnerable to various climate change expressions through several mechanisms. During periods of prolonged drought and higher temperatures, degraded peatlands are generally more susceptible to combustion and uncontrollable above- and belowground fire spread. This is mainly due to a significant drop in peat water table as water rapidly evaporates and limited fire barrier function (below canopy humidity) in degraded peatlands (Deshmukh et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; Sinclair et al., 2019; Hirano et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). The same mechanisms also promote tropical peat decomposition that are typically limited by water saturation (Evans et al., 2019; Mezbahuddin et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR48\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e; Hooijer et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR35\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e). Degraded peatland carbon stocks are also more prone to enhanced decomposition by nutrient inputs either from agricultural fertilizer or cattle manures (Chaddy et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e; S\u0026aacute;nchez et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR61\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). During periods of extreme precipitation, degraded peatlands are more prone to erosion for they are drier and have weaker peat structure, typically provided by plant roots, enhancing peat carbon export and mineralization (Barral et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e; Somers et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR64\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e; Wit et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR74\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). Although based on limited studies, degraded peatlands are likely more prone to seawater intrusion for they have lower water table and pore volume, thus lateral water flow (Katimon et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR41\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). The studies also reported that drained peatland carbon stocks are more sensitive to climate change impacts than those of degraded but undrained peatlands. This is likely because undrained peatlands (those with logged forest, have large canopy gaps, heavily grazed, or trampled by humans or cattles, but without intentional ditching to force the water out of the systems) typically have higher water holding capacity (Hirano et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn Southeast Asian regions, most of the peatlands are reportedly already degraded and drained which is mainly driven by conversion to agricultural land (plantations) and settlements (Dadap et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; Hoyt et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR37\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). While degradation of peatlands in South American and African regions are not as severe as in Southeast Asia (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e), they are increasingly threatened by development related to resource extraction such as gold and oil and hydropower plant (e.g., road and pipeline constructions, river damming) (Lawson et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR47\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e; Girkin et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). In the Niger Delta, for example, ca. 30% of oil and gas fields are located on peat soil, posing a huge risk for hydrological disturbance and contamination from crude spills (Lawson et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR47\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDegradation of lowland peatlands is also more often reported than of montane peatlands, according to our review (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e). This is likely due to their higher suitability for human occupation and generally higher population density (Miettinen et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR49\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e). However, despite experiencing human-driven degradation in much less intensity than those of lowlands, montane peatland carbon stocks have become increasingly vulnerable to land use such as drainage, grazing, construction, peat extraction and mining activities (Garc\u0026iacute;a Lino et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e; S\u0026aacute;nchez et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR61\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"5. Limitations","content":"\u003cp\u003eDespite the growing body of literature, significant gaps remain. Most studies are concentrated in Southeast Asia, while tropical peatlands in South and Central America and especially in Africa are underrepresented (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e). Studies on montane peatlands are also underrepresented (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e) and concentrated in South America. Furthermore, studies on peatlands in \u0026lsquo;natural state\u0026rsquo; are limited (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e), which could be due to the rarity of and limited accessibility to natural peatlands in the present day. Research has also focused mainly on CO₂ fluxes, with limited evidence on other greenhouse gases such as CH₄ and N₂O. Long-term monitoring is scarce, as most studies are short-term or site-specific, possibly due to limited funding. Additionally, few studies explicitly address socio-economic or policy dimensions, limiting the translation of scientific findings into effective management and restoration strategies.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe need to reiterate that our review may not completely represent all available information as some may not be captured by our search string. For example, a study conducted by Garcin et al, (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e) on peatlands in the Congo basin, despite being highly relevant to our research question, was not found in the initial search result. On the other hand, several studies that have low relevancy to our research questions were captured in our initial search result (Gopal et al., 2013; Fujimoto et al., 2001). This cautions that whilst rapid evidence assessment is likely sufficient to provide policy recommendation, more case studies and primary research and systematic reviews will be required for a more targeted policy intervention and implementation.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"6. Conclusion and implications","content":"\u003cp\u003eDespite growing numbers of available studies in tropical peatlands, vulnerability of tropical peatland carbon stocks remains difficult to generalize. This is mainly due to variation of peatland types and climate change expressions across the tropics and further compounded by sparse information for some peatlands. African and montane peatlands and peatlands under natural or near natural states are still underrepresented in the literature.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBased on our review, the vulnerability of tropical peatland carbon stocks to climate change varies depending on how climate change is manifested in the region and topographical locations. However, we can conclude that degraded peatlands are most vulnerable to climate change regardless of their location (regional and topography). In regards to this, Southeast Asian peatland carbon stocks are most vulnerable to climate change across the tropics. Southeast Asia peatlands are mostly degraded and drained, making them vulnerable to prolonged and extreme drought, rising temperature, and sea level rise, all of which are projected to occur in the region.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis review shows that preserving the remaining relatively intact tropical peatlands in South America and Africa is a crucial step in maintaining peatland carbon stocks in the tropics. Meanwhile, efforts to improve resilience of other tropical peatlands to climate change also need to be taken into account and require strategies specific to or tailored for the regions, topography, and ecosystem states. For this, more studies and information on underrepresented peatland ecosystems and regions, namely Africa and South/Central America, are undoubtedly needed. More detailed and reliable climate projections for the regions are also required. Additionally, considering the ecosystem states of tropical peatlands nowadays depends highly on the socioeconomic and political landscape around the ecosystems and even beyond, multiple perspectives including academics, local stakeholders, policy makers, and donors, need to be bridged and integrated.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAcknowledgement\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eKAH receives funding from the ERC grant (SaLtedPeat, Grant number 101220531). Financial and in-kind support for this research was provided by the British Academy, the United Nations Environment Programme Global Peatlands Initiative, the Institute for Methods Innovation (IMI) and Scotland’s Rural College (SRUC). In particular, the authors thank Prof. Mark Reed (SRUC), Prof. Eric Jensen (IMI), Dr. Rosie Gearey (IMI/SRUC) and Dr. Lydia Cole (St Andrews University) for their input into this research as part of the Evidence Synthesis and Policy Engagement Training Programme delivered by IMI.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAuthor contributions\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCvS, SK, KAH conceptualization. SK, CvS, MA, DK, FZ, KAH methodology and investigation. SK, CvS, MA formal analysis. KAH interpretation and discussion. SK, MA, KAH, CvS initial draft. KAH, SK, CvS content review and revision. CvS, SK, MA, KAH manuscript editing.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAnshari, G., Kershaw, A.P. and van der Kaars, S., 2001. 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(2016). \u003cem\u003eProjected increases in the annual flood pulse of the Western Amazon. \u003c/em\u003eEnvironmental Research Letters, 11 014013. https://10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014013 \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"United Nations Environment Programme","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Tropical peatlands, carbon stocks, climate change vulnerability, Rapid Evidence Assessment, anthropogenic stressors, climatic stressors, land-use change, carbon loss","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8751727/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8751727/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eTropical peatlands store large carbon stocks and play a critical role in the global carbon cycle. Yet, their vulnerability to carbon loss under climate change remains unevenly understood. Here, we address the question of which types of tropical peatlands are most vulnerable to carbon stock loss under climate-related stressors by synthesising the existing evidence base through a Rapid Evidence Assessment of 117 peer-reviewed studies published between 2004 and 2025. Studies were systematically coded for region, land-cover types, topographic setting, and reported climate and anthropogenic stressors, allowing a quantitative assessment of how peatland vulnerability has been examined across tropical contexts.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe evidence base is geographically and topographically uneven, with a strong concentration of studies in Southeast Asia and lowland peatlands, and substantially fewer studies addressing peatlands in Africa and South America and in montane areas. Across regions, precipitation and drought were the most frequently examined stressors, although their relative emphasis varied when normalised by regional study coverage. Temperature-related stressors were proportionally more prominent in studies from South and Central America and in montane peatlands, whereas precipitation-related stressors were similarly represented across lowland and montane systems. Fire-related stressors were predominantly assessed in Southeast Asia, with limited representation in South and Central America. Sea-level rise and peat subsidence were reported in only a small subset of studies and mostly conducted in Southeast Asia. Land-use change, deforestation, and drainage were primarily examined in Southeast Asia, while livestock-related stressors were concentrated in studies from South and Central America and in montane peatlands.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverall, the distribution of stressors across regions, land-cover types, and topographic settings reveals substantial knowledge gaps that constrain robust assessments of tropical peatland carbon vulnerability, particularly in South America, Central America, and Africa, and in montane peatland systems. Evidence related to sea-level rise and peat subsidence remains especially limited, highlighting the need for greater empirical coverage of these stressors. The combined evidence suggests that degraded, converted, and, especially, drained tropical peatlands are most vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change across the regions and geographical settings. By identifying where evidence is concentrated and where it is lacking, this synthesis also provides a transparent foundation for prioritising future research and strengthening the scientific basis for climate and land-use policies aimed at safeguarding tropical peatland carbon stocks.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Tropical peatlands carbon stocks’ vulnerability to climate change: A rapid evidence assessment","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-03 10:45:28","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8751727/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"38531b8b-6cfa-4d0f-921c-924cf7d1ea83","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 3rd, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-03T10:45:29+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-03 10:45:28","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8751727","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8751727","identity":"rs-8751727","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}