Climate Suitability for Tourism in Romania based on HCI: Urban Climate Index in the Near-Future Climate

The study presents an assessment of climate suitability for outdoor leisure activities in Romania using the Holliday Climate Index (HCI) for the near future (2021-2040), focusing on unfavorable and good climate conditions. The analysis employs data from an ensemble model in the context of RCP45 and RCP85 climate change scenarios. The results indicate that the number of days with low weather suitability is decreasing in almost the entire country, especially during the warm season, while during the winter and spring extended regions may be characterized by a higher number of days favorable for outdoor activities than during the current climate. An estimation of the impact of climate changes on tourism flux in Romania is further carried out, suggesting that the increasing attractivity of climate conditions may lead to an increased number of tourist overnights in the near future, more pronounced in rural destinations.