Disparity-aware energy system modelling resolves potential transition injustices

Disparity-aware energy system modelling resolves potential transition injustices | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Disparity-aware energy system modelling resolves potential transition injustices Meijun Chen, Francesco Sanvito, Jan Kwakkel, Stefan Pfenninger This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6578401/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Justice is a central pillar for a successful energy transition. Large-scale energy system models, as important tools to assist policy-making, rarely reflect justice concerns such as economic disparity. Disparity-unaware energy systems models can even reproduce existing disparity, such as systematically higher household heating transition burdens for lower-income countries. Here, we explicitly include national GDP and household income disparity in a model for net-zero European energy system designs. We find that disparity-compatible systems are possible with only 1.5% total cost increase compared to cost-minimal ones. Unlike in disparity-unaware system designs, where energy infrastructure investment can reach over 100% of national GDP for some countries, disparity-compatible designs ensure that it stays below 5% for each country. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that less affluent countries need substantial household-level financing to support the heating transition. Our method can inform concrete policy-making, such as the EU Social Climate Fund, to address economic fairness. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy justice Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy policy Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change mitigation Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Datasourcesdisparityaware.xlsx External data sources Supplementarymaterialdisparityaware.pdf Supplementary graphs Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6578401","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":455404092,"identity":"6fa4153d-ac16-495e-80e7-e292dacd50de","order_by":0,"name":"Meijun 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