Satellite-driven synthesis of fish production dynamics and carrying capacity mechanisms in a high-altitude lake ecosystem

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Understanding energy limitations on fish populations in fragile high-altitude lake ecosystems is critical for sustainable fisheries management. This study develops a satellite-based framework integrating MODIS-derived chlorophyll-a with Vertically Generalized Production Model (VGPM) to map Fish Potential Production (FPP) and establish a novel Fish Carrying Capacity Index (FCCI) for the endemic naked carp ( Gymnocypris przewalskii) in Qinghai Lake, China (2002-2024). Results showed that seasonal FPP peaked in summer (July-August: 30-50 g/m 2) and declined in spring (May-June: 0-30 g/m 2), with annual gross monthly FPP ranging from 42,000 to 176,000 tonnes. Long-term trends revealed a 23-year increase in FPP, punctuated by cyclical fluctuations (2-4 year cycles), peaking in 2019. Spatial heterogeneity was prominent, with higher FPP near tributary estuaries (e.g., Buha River: 40-50 g/m 2 in 2019) and lower values in the central lake. The derived FCCI demonstrated spatial imbalances, with higher pressure in north-western regions (FCCI >0.6) and underutilized resources in the southeast (FCCI <0.3). Despite a 50-fold increase of fish production (FP) from 2,592 tonnes (2002) to 12,7500 tonnes (2024), FCCI remained below 0.6, indicating sufficient primary productivity to sustain current fish populations and substantial potential for strategic restocking. This study underscores the utility of remote sensing in large-scale ecological monitoring, offering actionable insights for balancing conservation and fisheries productivity in sensitive plateau ecosystems.
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Satellite-driven synthesis of fish production dynamics and carrying capacity mechanisms in a high-altitude lake ecosystem | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 18 April 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Satellite-driven synthesis of fish production dynamics and carrying capacity mechanisms in a high-altitude lake ecosystem Authors : Ban Xuan 0000-0002-8873-2585 [email protected] , Qi Hongfang , Shu Peng , Luo Ying , Ling Feng , Xiao Fei , Li Pengchen , and Du Hao Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174497424.43318761/v1 Published Ecology and Evolution Version of record Peer review timeline 194 views 122 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Understanding energy limitations on fish populations in fragile high-altitude lake ecosystems is critical for sustainable fisheries management. This study develops a satellite-based framework integrating MODIS-derived chlorophyll-a with Vertically Generalized Production Model (VGPM) to map Fish Potential Production (FPP) and establish a novel Fish Carrying Capacity Index (FCCI) for the endemic naked carp ( Gymnocypris przewalskii) in Qinghai Lake, China (2002-2024). Results showed that seasonal FPP peaked in summer (July-August: 30-50 g/m 2) and declined in spring (May-June: 0-30 g/m 2), with annual gross monthly FPP ranging from 42,000 to 176,000 tonnes. Long-term trends revealed a 23-year increase in FPP, punctuated by cyclical fluctuations (2-4 year cycles), peaking in 2019. Spatial heterogeneity was prominent, with higher FPP near tributary estuaries (e.g., Buha River: 40-50 g/m 2 in 2019) and lower values in the central lake. The derived FCCI demonstrated spatial imbalances, with higher pressure in north-western regions (FCCI >0.6) and underutilized resources in the southeast (FCCI <0.3). Despite a 50-fold increase of fish production (FP) from 2,592 tonnes (2002) to 12,7500 tonnes (2024), FCCI remained below 0.6, indicating sufficient primary productivity to sustain current fish populations and substantial potential for strategic restocking. This study underscores the utility of remote sensing in large-scale ecological monitoring, offering actionable insights for balancing conservation and fisheries productivity in sensitive plateau ecosystems. Supplementary Material File (oik-11601-file001.docx) Download 6.55 MB File (oik-11601-file010.pdf) Download 20.64 MB File (oik-11601-file013.docx) Download 17.06 KB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 18 April 2025 Peer review timeline Published Ecology and Evolution Version of Record 17 Feb 2026 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords fish carrying capacity index fish potential production primary production qinghai lake vertically generalized production model Authors Affiliations Ban Xuan 0000-0002-8873-2585 [email protected] Chinese Academy of Sciences Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology View all articles by this author Qi Hongfang Qinghai Lake Naked Carp Rescue Center View all articles by this author Shu Peng Wuhan University State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management View all articles by this author Luo Ying Qinghai Lake Naked Carp Rescue Center View all articles by this author Ling Feng Chinese Academy of Sciences Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology View all articles by this author Xiao Fei Chinese Academy of Sciences Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology View all articles by this author Li Pengchen Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences Yangtze River Fisheries Research Institute View all articles by this author Du Hao Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences Yangtze River Fisheries Research Institute View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 194 views 122 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Ban Xuan, Qi Hongfang, Shu Peng, et al. Satellite-driven synthesis of fish production dynamics and carrying capacity mechanisms in a high-altitude lake ecosystem. Authorea . 18 April 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174497424.43318761/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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