Sub-Saharan Africa needs better agronomy to meet maize demand without massive cropland expansion and imports

Abstract Maize demand in sub-Saharan Africa will increase 2.3 times during the next 30 years driven by demographic and dietary changes. Over the past two decades, the area cropped with maize has expanded by 17 million hectares in the region, with little improvement in farmer yields. If these trends persist, massive increase in maize area and/or imports will be needed to meet domestic demand. Here we used data collected from 13,364 smallholder fields to identify agronomic practices that can promptly deliver large on-farm yield gains. We show that good agronomic practices regarding nutrient, crop management, and cultivar selection can more than double on-farm yields and provide an additional 93 million tons of maize within current cropland. Given the magnitude and urgency of the challenge ahead, agricultural research and development investments must be re-oriented towards agricultural practices with proven capacity to raise yields in farmer fields.