Updated estimate of the breeding population of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) at Penguin Point, Marambio / Seymour Island within the proposed Weddell Sea Marine Protected Area

Updated estimate of the breeding population of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) at Penguin Point, Marambio / Seymour Island within the proposed Weddell Sea Marine Protected Area | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Updated estimate of the breeding population of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) at Penguin Point, Marambio / Seymour Island within the proposed Weddell Sea Marine Protected Area Pablo J. Perchivale, Mariana A. Juáres, Mercedes M. Santos, Lucas J. Marti, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2117503/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract The Adélie penguin ( Pygoscelis adeliae )is an indicator species of the state of the Antarctic marine environment and this is reflected in the size of its reproductive populations. The mean number of breeding pairs of the Adélie penguin on Penguin Point, Marambio / Seymour Island (64° 18'S, 56° 43'W) east of the Antarctic Peninsula, in the Weddell Sea, increased by 32.4% (λ = 1.01) from 1985/1986 to 2014/2015. Although in intermediate counts, there were fluctuations in the number of couples. Variations in Adélie penguin populations may be due to natural variables such as the extent of sea ice; quantity and quality of food; winter survival of adults and juveniles; predation; among others, or due to human activities such as commercial fishing. Our study attempts to contribute to the current estimates of the reproductive population of the Adélie penguin in the region and may also contribute to the negotiations for the implementation of the marine protected area proposed in the sector. Northeastern Antarctic Peninsula CCAMLR Sea ice Antarctica Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Introduction The population status of Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae ) varies among different sectors of Antarctica. While populations are declining in the west of the Antarctic Peninsula (e.g. Forcada et al. 2006; Lynch and Larue 2014; Juáres et al. 2015; Santos et al. 2018), in East Antarctica populations remain stable or increasing (Croxall et al. 2002; Ainley et al. 2003; Jenouvrier et al. 2006; Lynch and LaRue 2014; Lyver et al. 2014; Southwell et al. 2015; Che-Castaldo et al. 2017; Borowicz et al. 2018). Furthermore, large mega-colonies of Adélie penguins have even been described for the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula (Borowicz et al. 2018). Some of these sites have been intensely monitored over the last 30 years (Trivelpiece et al. 2011; Hinke et al. 2012; Juáres et al. 2015; Santos et al. 2018), while some colonies have only been recorded mainly through sporadic visits and high-resolution satellite images due to their remoteness or great difficulties to access them (Lynch and LaRue 2014). The effort to know the population status of the Adélie penguin lies in the fact that it is considered an indicator species of the health status of the Antarctic environment due to its role as a specific predator of species that are under commercial fishing pressure, such as Antarctic krill ( Euphausia superba , hereafter krill), and fish ( Pleuragramma spp .) (Lynch and LaRue 2014). This is why the Adélie penguin is monitored by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) as part of its Ecosystem Monitoring Program (CEMP), which seeks to detect significant changes in the ecosystem and distinguish between changes caused by the exploitation of commercial species from those that are the product of environmental variability. In addition, CCAMLR may contribute to the conservation and rational use of natural resources through the designation of marine protected areas (MPAs) (CCAMLR 2009; 2016; Brooks 2013; Sylvester and Brooks 2019; Handley et al. 2021). In that regard, CCAMLR defines MPAs as follows: “It is a marine area that protects all or part of the natural resources found in it”. Marine protected areas in Antarctica have been the subject of continuous discussion for the last decade. Despite some progress, such as the establishment of the world’s largest MPA over the Ross Sea in 2016, the designation of other proposed areas such as East Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula and the Weddell Sea is still pending approval. Whether approval remains elusive or not, more research is needed to assess and monitor MPAs, including but not limited to how designated species are protected. Here, we seek to update, by direct counts, the estimate of the size of the Adélie penguin reproductive population at Penguin Point, Marambio / Seymour Island. This data is needed to determine trends in the size of reproductive populations (CCAMLR 2014) also attempt to contribute to the baseline information required for the establishment of the Weddell Sea MPA. Materials And Methods Study area This study was conducted on Penguin Point, Marambio / Seymour Island (64° 18'S, 56° 43'W), located northwest of the Weddell Sea, approximately 100 km SE of the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (Fig. 1) and is part of a long-term monitoring of pygoscelid penguins carried out by the Ecosystem Monitoring Program of the Argentine Antarctic Institute (Instituto Antártico Argentino). The distribution of nests in the colony is mainly determined by the geomorphological structure of the terrain (Myrcha et al. 1987; Montalti and Seoave 2002). Nest groups in a delimited area were defined as breeding groups, with the sum of all breeding groups forming a colony (Carlini et al. 2007; Santos et al. 2018). Reproductive population census The census of the reproductive population of Adélie penguins was carried out between November 14 and December 2 of the 2014/2015 breeding season. All breeding groups were mapped with a Garmin Etrex H® GPS (accuracy of ± 3 m). In order to estimate the number of breeding pairs in each reproductive group, we conducted three separate counts according to standard methods of the Ecosystem Monitoring Program (CCAMLR 2014). During each count, the number of nests with eggs (i.e . active nests, defined as those nests with eggs or with birds lying in a nest) and the number of occupied nests (i.e. reproductive pairs standing on an empty nest) were recorded. The sum of the average values of the active and occupied nests was taken as the total number of breeding pairs. It is worth noting that Adélie penguins have great fidelity to nesting sites, therefore making it unlikely for birds counted once to relocate to other breeding groups not counted later, thus minimizing any possible double counts. Population growth rate The annual population growth rate (λ) was estimated as : λ= (Ns2/Ns1)^T -1 , where N represents the size of the reproductive population for season s (in this study, s1 : 1985/1986 and s2 : 2014/2015), and T is the number of seasons comprised between two counting efforts (e.g., in the previous case T = 29). The parameter lambda (λ) indicates whether a population is increasing (λ > 1), decreasing (λ < 1), or if it remains stable (λ = 1) over time (Caswell 1989; Santos et al. 2018). The 95 % confidence intervals (± 2 SD) were used, as proposed by Lynch and LaRue (2014). Results The total size of the reproductive population was estimated at 29,069 (CI 27,616-30,522) breeding pairs for the 2014/2015 season. A total of 21,954 breeding pairs were estimated for the 1985/1986 season, distributed in 280 reproductive groups. This means that in the 29-year interval, 7,115 new breeding pairs were added to the colony, which represents an increase of 32.4 % (λ = 1.01) in the mean number of breeding pairs. We defined 32 reproductive groups. The reason why there are fewer groups than those reported by Myrcha et al. (1987) is that there is a greater number of breeding pairs nesting in the same area into which several groups merged. In other cases, the boundaries between these groups appeared to be too diffuse. None of the reproductive groups had less than 70 breeding pairs, while 23 breeding groups (59.4 %) comprised more than 500 breeding pairs. In addition, 12 groups had more than 1,000 pairs and four of them had more than 2,000 breeding pairs. The largest breeding group consisted of 2,908 breeding pairs. While the colony grew from the first census, in intermediate counts, (Table 1) evidenced fluctuations in the number of reproductive pairs. Broadly speaking, the reproductive population increased by 28.7% (λ = 1.02) between 1985/1986 and 1999/2000, and then decreased by 6.6% (λ = 0.99) between 1999/2000 and 2006/2007. From 2006/2007 to 2007/2009 the breeding population suffered its greatest decrease on record, which was 39.3% (λ = 0.85). From 2007/2009 to 2014/2015, the number of breeding pairs of Adélie penguins increased by 81.5% (λ =1.13) (Fig 2). Discussion The number of reproductive pairs of Adélie penguins at Penguin Point increased from 1985/1986 to 2014/2015, in contrast to the reported for colonies in the west of the Antarctic Peninsula where populations are in evident decline (Forcada et al. 2006; Carlini et al. 2007, 2009; Hinke et al. 2007; Schofeld et al. 2010; Trivelpiece et al. 2011; Lynch et al. 2012a; Korzak-Abshire et al. 2013; Lynch and LaRue 2014; Juáres et al. 2015; Santos et al. 2018). Adélie colonies located to the east closer to the Antarctic Peninsula have also reported a decline, but those further away remain relatively stable (Lynch et al. 2013; Lynch and LaRue 2014; Borowicz et al. 2018) or, as in our case, seem to be experiencing growth. Although this population growth in Penguin Point has fluctuated, with this last census a recovery of the reproductive population was verified. The lowest number of breeding pairs was published by Lynch et al. (2013) for the 2009/2010 season, which could be due to the abnormally cold summer of that season (Costa & Agosta 2012), where there was also a large accumulation of snow on the island (Marinsek personal communication 2010). Accumulation and persistence of snow can lead to loss of nesting sites early in the season, as well as reduced reproductive output due to loss of nests with eggs and chicks (Lynch et al. 2009, 2010; Hinke et al. 2012; Frazer et al. 2013; Juáres et al. 2013, 2015 among others). The Weddell Sea has lower water and air temperatures and a higher abundance of sea ice than the Bellingshausen Sea to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula (Cook and Vaughan 2010; Vernet and Cape 2019), providing a feeding area more stable for the Adélie penguin (Borowicz et al. 2018). On the other hand, it is also worth mentioning that although commercial krill fishing takes place in the eastern Antarctic Peninsula, it is less developed than in other sectors of Antarctica (CCAMLR krill fishery report 2020). These are perhaps some of the reasons why the Adélie penguin colony at Penguin Point has not experienced as and population changes as those reported west of the Antarctic Peninsula. Variations in Adélie penguin populations may be due to variables such as decreased sea ice extent; winter survival of adults and chicks; decreased availability of krill, high snow deposition in nesting areas or due to human activities (e.g. Stammerjhon et al. 2008; Barbosa 2011; Juáres et al.2013; 2015, 2020). In turn, these variables may or may not operate together (Carlini et al. 2009; Juáres et al. 2015). Our work updates the estimate of the abundance of Adélie penguin populations in the eastern Antarctic Peninsula and seeks to support discussions on the need and importance of implementing the proposed MPA in the Weddell Sea (WSMPA) (Teschke et al.2020, 2021; Handley et al. 2021) as it reinforces the importance of this area for the conservation of the Adélie penguin. It is essential to continue conducting long-term studies to better understand the factors or variables that operate on their reproductive populations, determine their trends taking into account interannual fluctuations (Carlini et al. 2007) and highlight the importance of marine protected areas as a tool for the conservation of biodiversity and the normal functioning of the ecosystem. Declarations Acknowledgements We thank all the field workers involved in penguin monitoring. The permit for this work was granted by the National Antarctic Directorate (Environmental office) and The Argentine Antarctic Institute—National Antarctic Directorate (PINST-05) provided financial and logistical support. We are very grateful to Ana Gentile for her review and suggestions to improve the English of the manuscript . Authors contribution All authors contributed to the study conception and design. PP, LM and MS participated in the field work. AS participated in the general development of the manuscript and in the development and interpretation of the figures. Data collection and analysis were performed by MJ, MS and PP. The first draft of the manuscript was written by MS and PP. NC, was director of the Ecosystem Monitoring program from 1995 to 2013 (MJ is the current director) he reviewed the manuscript and provided suggestions for for the development of this work. The authors declare that they received no funds or grants during the preparation of this manuscript. Funding The Instituto Antártico Argentino – Dirección Nacional del Antártico (PINST-05) provided financial and logistical support. Availability of data and materials The relevant data are included in this text. Code availability Not applicable. Compliance with ethical standards Conflict of interests The authors declare that they have no conflict of interests. Ethical approval All research involving Adélie penguins was conducted under appropriate international, national and/or institutional guidelines for the care and use of animals. Consent to participate Not applicable. Consent for publication Not applicable. References Ainley DG, Ballard G, Emslie SD, Fraser WR, Wilson PR, Woehler EJ (2003) Adélie penguins and environmental change. Science 300: 429-430 Barbosa A (2011) Efectos del cambio climático sobre pingüinos antárticos. 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Science 328: 1520-1523 Stammerjohn SE, Martinson DG, Smith RC, Iannuzzi RA (2008a) Sea ice in the Western Antarctic Peninsula region: spatio-temporal variability from ecological and climate change perspectives. Deep Sea Res Part II Top Stud Oceanogr 55:2041–2058 Southwell C, Emmerson L, McKinlay J, Newbery K, Takahashi A, Kato A, Weimerskirch H (2015) Spatially extensive standardized surveys reveal widespread, multi-decadal increase in East Antarctic Adélie penguin populations. PloS ONE 10:e0139877 Sylvester ZT, Brooks CM (2019) Protecting Antarctica through co-production of actionable science: Lessons from the CCAMLR marine protected area process. Marine Policy 111:103720. Taylor RH, Wilson PR (1990) Recent increase and southern expansion of Adélie Penguin populations in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, related to climatic warming. New Zealand Journal of Ecology 14:25–29 Teschke K, Brtnik P, Hain S, Herata H, Liebschner A, Pehlke H, Brey T (2021) Planning marine protected areas under the CCAMLR regime. The case of the Weddell Sea (Antarctica). Marine Policy 124:104370 Teschke K, Pehlke H, Siegel V, Bornemann H, Knust R, Brey T (2020) An integrated compilation of data sources for the development of a marine protected area in the Weddell Sea. Earth System Science Data 12:1003-1023 Trivelpiece ZW, Hinke JT, Miller AK, Reiss CS, Trivelpiece SG (2011) Variability in krill biomass links harvesting and climate warming to penguin population changes in Antarctica. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108:7625–7628 Vernet M, Cape MR (2019) Ecosistemas marinos antárticos después del rompimiento de barreras de hielo. Cuadernos de Investigación UNED 11:36-43 Table Table 1 Summary of the Adélie penguin breeding pairs registered at Marambio/Seymour Island from 1986. Breeding population size = number of pairs occupying nest (according to the CCAMLR Ecosistem Monitoring Program Methods. Season Nº Breeding pairs References 1985/1986 21954 Myrcha et al (1987) 1999/2000 28255 Montalti & Soave (2002) 2006/2007 26400 Naveen & Lynch (2011) Lynch et al (2013) 2009/2010 16015 2014/2015 29069 This study Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-2117503","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":167283422,"identity":"1ad71050-ba42-4001-8d58-a822820e3689","order_by":0,"name":"Pablo J. 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The nodes represent the results of previous counts summarized in table 1\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2117503/v2/77122701c03cf205fd93ec43.png"},{"id":32543551,"identity":"3806b7df-7d1d-4e06-8973-529c374c9441","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2023-02-06 17:29:39","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":590752,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2117503/v2/3a4823bf-b5e8-4737-b81a-e986c5224d82.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Updated estimate of the breeding population of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) at Penguin Point, Marambio / Seymour Island within the proposed Weddell Sea Marine Protected Area","fulltext":[{"header":"Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe population status of Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguins (\u003cem\u003ePygoscelis adeliae\u003c/em\u003e) varies among different sectors of Antarctica. While populations are declining in the west of the Antarctic Peninsula (e.g. Forcada et al. 2006; Lynch and Larue 2014; Ju\u0026aacute;res et al. 2015; Santos et al. 2018), in East Antarctica populations remain stable or increasing (Croxall et al. 2002; Ainley et al. 2003; Jenouvrier et al. 2006; Lynch and LaRue 2014; Lyver et al. 2014; Southwell et al. 2015; Che-Castaldo et al. 2017; Borowicz et al. 2018). Furthermore, large mega-colonies of Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguins have even been described for the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula (Borowicz et al. 2018). Some of these sites have been intensely monitored over the last 30 years (Trivelpiece et al. 2011; Hinke et al. 2012; Ju\u0026aacute;res et al. 2015; Santos et al. 2018), while some colonies have only been recorded mainly through sporadic visits and high-resolution satellite images due to their remoteness or great difficulties to access them (Lynch and LaRue 2014).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe effort to know the population status of the Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguin lies in the fact that it is considered an indicator species of the health status of the Antarctic environment due to its role as a specific predator of species that are under commercial fishing pressure, such as Antarctic krill (\u003cem\u003eEuphausia superba\u003c/em\u003e, hereafter krill), and fish (\u003cem\u003ePleuragramma spp\u003c/em\u003e.) (Lynch and LaRue 2014). This is why the Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguin is monitored by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) as part of its Ecosystem Monitoring Program (CEMP), which seeks to detect significant changes in the ecosystem and distinguish between changes caused by the exploitation of commercial species from those that are the product of environmental variability.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn addition, CCAMLR\u0026nbsp;may contribute to the conservation and rational use of natural resources through the designation of marine protected areas (MPAs) (CCAMLR 2009; 2016; Brooks 2013; Sylvester and Brooks 2019; Handley et al. 2021). In that regard, CCAMLR defines MPAs as follows: \u0026ldquo;It is a marine area that protects all or part of the natural resources found in it\u0026rdquo;. Marine protected areas in Antarctica have been the subject of continuous discussion for the last decade. Despite some progress, such as the establishment of the world\u0026rsquo;s largest MPA over the Ross Sea in 2016, the designation of other proposed areas such as East Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula and the Weddell Sea is still pending approval. Whether approval remains elusive or not, more research is needed to assess and monitor MPAs, including but not limited to how designated species are protected.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHere, we seek to update, by direct counts, the estimate of the size of the Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguin reproductive population at Penguin Point, Marambio / Seymour Island. This data is needed to determine trends in the size of reproductive populations (CCAMLR 2014) also attempt to contribute to the baseline information required for the establishment of the Weddell Sea MPA.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Materials And Methods","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eStudy area\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis study was conducted on Penguin Point, Marambio / Seymour Island (64\u0026deg; 18\u0026apos;S, 56\u0026deg; 43\u0026apos;W), located northwest of the Weddell Sea, approximately 100 km SE of the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (Fig. 1) and is part of a long-term monitoring of pygoscelid penguins carried out by the Ecosystem Monitoring Program of the Argentine Antarctic Institute (Instituto Ant\u0026aacute;rtico Argentino).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe distribution of nests in the colony is mainly determined by the geomorphological structure of the terrain (Myrcha et al. 1987; Montalti and Seoave 2002). Nest groups in a delimited area were defined as breeding groups, with the sum of all breeding groups forming a colony (Carlini et al. 2007; Santos et al. 2018).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eReproductive population census\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe census of the reproductive population of Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguins was carried out between November 14 and December 2 of the 2014/2015 breeding season. All breeding groups were mapped with a Garmin Etrex H\u0026reg; GPS (accuracy of \u0026plusmn; 3 m). In order to estimate the number of breeding pairs in each reproductive group, we conducted three separate counts according to standard methods of the Ecosystem Monitoring Program (CCAMLR 2014). During each count, the number of nests with eggs (i.e\u003cem\u003e.\u003c/em\u003e active nests, defined as those nests with eggs or with birds lying in a nest) and the number of occupied nests (i.e. reproductive pairs standing on an empty nest) were recorded. The sum of the average values of the active and occupied nests was taken as the total number of breeding pairs. It is worth noting that Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguins have great fidelity to nesting sites, therefore making it unlikely for birds counted once to relocate to other breeding groups not counted later, thus minimizing any possible double counts. \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ePopulation growth rate\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe annual\u0026nbsp;population growth rate (\u0026lambda;) was estimated as\u003cem\u003e:\u003c/em\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u0026lambda;= (Ns2/Ns1)^T\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/em\u003e, where \u003cem\u003eN\u003c/em\u003e represents the size of the reproductive population for season \u003cem\u003es\u003c/em\u003e (in this study, \u003cem\u003es1\u003c/em\u003e: 1985/1986 and \u003cem\u003es2\u003c/em\u003e: 2014/2015), and \u003cem\u003eT\u003c/em\u003e is the number of seasons comprised between two counting efforts (e.g., in the previous case \u003cem\u003eT\u003c/em\u003e = 29). The parameter lambda (\u0026lambda;) indicates whether a population is increasing (\u0026lambda; \u0026gt; 1), decreasing (\u0026lambda; \u0026lt; 1), or if it remains stable (\u0026lambda; = 1) over time (Caswell 1989; Santos et al. 2018). The 95 % confidence intervals (\u0026plusmn; 2 SD) were used, as proposed by Lynch and LaRue (2014).\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Results","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe total size of the reproductive population was estimated at 29,069 (CI 27,616-30,522) breeding pairs for the 2014/2015 season. A total of 21,954 breeding pairs were estimated for the 1985/1986 season, distributed in 280 reproductive groups. This means that in the 29-year interval, 7,115 new breeding pairs were added to the colony, which represents an increase of 32.4 % (\u0026lambda; = 1.01) in the mean number of breeding pairs.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe defined 32 reproductive groups. The reason why there are fewer groups than those reported by Myrcha et al. (1987) is that there is a greater number of breeding pairs nesting in the same area into which several groups merged. In other cases, the boundaries between these groups appeared to be too diffuse. None of the reproductive groups had less than 70 breeding pairs, while 23 breeding groups (59.4 %) comprised more than 500 breeding pairs. In addition, 12 groups had more than 1,000 pairs and four of them had more than 2,000 breeding pairs. The largest breeding group consisted of 2,908 breeding pairs.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhile the colony grew from the first census, in intermediate counts, (Table 1) evidenced fluctuations in the number of reproductive pairs. Broadly speaking, the reproductive population increased by 28.7% (\u0026lambda; = 1.02) between 1985/1986 and 1999/2000, and then decreased by 6.6% (\u0026lambda; = 0.99) between 1999/2000 and 2006/2007. From 2006/2007 to 2007/2009 the breeding population suffered its greatest decrease on record, which was 39.3% (\u0026lambda; = 0.85). From 2007/2009 to 2014/2015, the number of breeding pairs of Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguins increased by 81.5% (\u0026lambda; =1.13) (Fig 2).\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Discussion ","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe number of reproductive pairs of Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguins at Penguin Point increased from 1985/1986 to 2014/2015, in contrast to the reported for colonies in the west of the Antarctic Peninsula where populations are in evident decline (Forcada et al. 2006; Carlini et al. 2007, 2009; Hinke et al. 2007; Schofeld et al. 2010; Trivelpiece et al. 2011; Lynch et al. 2012a; Korzak-Abshire et al. 2013; Lynch and LaRue 2014; Ju\u0026aacute;res et al. 2015; Santos et al. 2018). Ad\u0026eacute;lie colonies located to the east closer to the Antarctic Peninsula have also reported a decline, but those further away remain relatively stable (Lynch et al. 2013; Lynch and LaRue 2014; Borowicz et al. 2018) or, as in our case, seem to be experiencing growth.\u0026nbsp;Although this population growth in Penguin Point has fluctuated, with this last census a recovery of the reproductive population was verified. The lowest number of breeding pairs was published by Lynch et al. (2013) for the 2009/2010 season, which could be due to the abnormally cold summer of that season (Costa \u0026amp; Agosta 2012), where there was also a large accumulation of snow on the island (Marinsek personal communication 2010). Accumulation and persistence of snow can lead to loss of nesting sites early in the season, as well as reduced reproductive output due to loss of nests with eggs and chicks (Lynch et al. 2009, 2010; Hinke et al. 2012; Frazer et al. 2013; Ju\u0026aacute;res et al. 2013, 2015 among others).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe Weddell Sea has lower water and air temperatures and a higher abundance of sea ice than the Bellingshausen Sea to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula (Cook and Vaughan 2010; Vernet and Cape 2019), providing a feeding area more stable for the Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguin (Borowicz et al. 2018).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOn the other hand, it is also worth mentioning that although commercial krill fishing takes place in the eastern Antarctic Peninsula, it is less developed than in other sectors of Antarctica (CCAMLR krill fishery report 2020).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThese are perhaps some of the reasons why the Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguin colony at Penguin Point has not experienced as and population changes as those reported west of the Antarctic Peninsula. Variations in Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguin populations may be due to variables such as decreased sea ice extent; winter survival of adults and chicks; decreased availability of krill, high snow deposition in nesting areas or due to human activities (e.g. Stammerjhon et al. 2008; Barbosa 2011; Ju\u0026aacute;res et al.2013; 2015, 2020). In turn, these variables may or may not operate together (Carlini et al. 2009; Ju\u0026aacute;res et al. 2015).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOur work updates the estimate of the abundance of Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguin populations in the eastern Antarctic Peninsula and seeks to support discussions on the need and importance of implementing the proposed MPA in the Weddell Sea (WSMPA) (Teschke et al.2020, 2021; Handley et al. 2021) as it reinforces the importance of this area for the conservation of the Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguin. It is essential to continue conducting long-term studies to better understand the factors or variables that operate on their reproductive populations, determine their trends taking into account interannual fluctuations (Carlini et al. 2007) and highlight the importance of marine protected areas as a tool for the conservation of biodiversity and the normal functioning of the ecosystem.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAcknowledgements\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe thank all the field workers involved in penguin monitoring. The permit for this work was granted by the National Antarctic Directorate (Environmental office) and The Argentine Antarctic Institute\u0026mdash;National Antarctic Directorate (PINST-05) provided financial and logistical support. We are very grateful to Ana Gentile for her review and suggestions to improve the English of the manuscript\u003cstrong\u003e.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAuthors contribution\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAll authors contributed to the study conception and design. PP, LM and MS participated in the field work.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAS participated in the general development of the manuscript and in the development and interpretation of the figures. Data collection and analysis were performed by MJ, MS and PP. The first draft of the manuscript was written by MS and PP. NC, was director of the Ecosystem Monitoring program from 1995 to 2013 (MJ is the current director) he reviewed the manuscript and provided suggestions for for the development of this work.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors declare that they received no funds or grants during the preparation of this manuscript.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFunding\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe Instituto Ant\u0026aacute;rtico Argentino \u0026ndash; Direcci\u0026oacute;n Nacional del Ant\u0026aacute;rtico (PINST-05) provided financial and logistical support.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAvailability of data and materials\u003c/strong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe relevant data are included in this text.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCode availability\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNot applicable.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCompliance with ethical standards\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConflict of interests\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors declare that they have no conflict of interests.\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEthical approval\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eAll research involving Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguins was conducted under appropriate international, national and/or institutional guidelines for the care and use of animals.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConsent to participate\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNot applicable.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConsent for publication\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNot applicable.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAinley DG, Ballard G, Emslie SD, Fraser WR, Wilson PR, Woehler EJ (2003) Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguins and environmental change. 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Deep Sea \u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"text-align: inherit;\"\u003eRes Part II Top Stud Oceanogr 55:2041\u0026ndash;2058\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eSouthwell C, Emmerson L, McKinlay J, Newbery K, Takahashi A, Kato A, Weimerskirch H (2015) Spatially extensive standardized surveys reveal widespread, multi-decadal increase in East Antarctic Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguin populations. PloS ONE 10:e0139877\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eSylvester ZT, Brooks CM (2019) Protecting Antarctica through co-production of actionable science: Lessons from the CCAMLR marine protected area process. Marine Policy 111:103720. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTaylor RH, Wilson PR (1990) Recent increase and southern expansion of Ad\u0026eacute;lie Penguin populations in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, related to climatic warming. New Zealand Journal of Ecology 14:25\u0026ndash;29\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTeschke K, Brtnik P, Hain S, Herata H, Liebschner A, Pehlke H, Brey T (2021) Planning marine protected areas under the CCAMLR regime. The case of the Weddell Sea (Antarctica). Marine Policy 124:104370\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTeschke K, Pehlke H, Siegel V, Bornemann H, Knust R, Brey T (2020) An integrated compilation of data sources for the development of a marine protected area in the Weddell Sea. Earth System Science Data 12:1003-1023 \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTrivelpiece ZW, Hinke JT, Miller AK, Reiss CS, Trivelpiece SG (2011) Variability in krill biomass links \u003cspan style=\"text-align: inherit;\"\u003eharvesting and climate warming to penguin population changes in Antarctica. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA \u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"text-align: inherit;\"\u003e108:7625\u0026ndash;7628\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eVernet M, Cape MR (2019) Ecosistemas marinos ant\u0026aacute;rticos despu\u0026eacute;s del rompimiento de barreras de hielo. Cuadernos de Investigaci\u0026oacute;n UNED 11:36-43\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},{"header":"Table","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTable 1\u003c/strong\u003e Summary of the Ad\u0026eacute;lie penguin breeding pairs registered at Marambio/Seymour Island from 1986. Breeding population size = number of pairs occupying nest (according to the CCAMLR Ecosistem Monitoring Program Methods.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"55%\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"24.489795918367346%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSeason\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"29.591836734693878%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eN\u0026ordm; Breeding pairs\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"45.91836734693877%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eReferences\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"24.489795918367346%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1985/1986\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"29.591836734693878%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e21954\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"45.91836734693877%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMyrcha et al (1987)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"24.489795918367346%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1999/2000\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"29.591836734693878%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e28255\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"45.91836734693877%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMontalti \u0026amp; Soave (2002)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"24.489795918367346%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2006/2007\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"29.591836734693878%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e26400\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd rowspan=\"2\" valign=\"top\" width=\"45.91836734693877%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eNaveen \u0026amp; Lynch (2011)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLynch et al (2013)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"45.283018867924525%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2009/2010\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"54.716981132075475%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e16015\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"24.489795918367346%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2014/2015\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"29.591836734693878%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e29069\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" width=\"45.91836734693877%\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThis study\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Northeastern Antarctic Peninsula, CCAMLR, Sea ice, Antarctica","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-2117503/v2","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2117503/v2","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe Adélie penguin (\u003cem\u003ePygoscelis adeliae\u003c/em\u003e)is an indicator species of the state of the Antarctic marine environment and this is reflected in the size of its reproductive populations. The mean number of breeding pairs of the Adélie penguin on Penguin Point, Marambio / Seymour Island (64° 18'S, 56° 43'W) east of the Antarctic Peninsula, in the Weddell Sea, increased by 32.4% (λ = 1.01) from 1985/1986 to 2014/2015. Although in intermediate counts, there were fluctuations in the number of couples.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eVariations in Adélie penguin populations may be due to natural variables such as the extent of sea ice; quantity and quality of food; winter survival of adults and juveniles; predation; among others, or due to human activities such as commercial fishing. Our study attempts to contribute to the current estimates of the reproductive population of the Adélie penguin in the region and may also contribute to the negotiations for the implementation of the marine protected area proposed in the sector.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Updated estimate of the breeding population of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) at Penguin Point, Marambio / Seymour Island within the proposed Weddell Sea Marine Protected Area","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":2,"date":"2023-01-13 22:42:55","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-2117503/v2","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}},{"code":1,"date":"2022-10-10 18:56:24","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-2117503/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":2}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"65735c56-aff3-4c0b-b470-a349c7ef8ab3","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 13th, 2023","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2023-02-06T17:29:30+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2023-01-13 22:42:55","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v2","identity":"rs-2117503","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-2117503","identity":"rs-2117503","version":["v2"]},"buildId":"7rjqhiLT3MXkJMwkYKINL","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}