Simulation of climate changes in Northern Eurasia by two versions of the INM RAS Earth system model

Simulation of climate changes in Northern Eurasia by two versions of the INM RAS Earth system model | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Simulation of climate changes in Northern Eurasia by two versions of the INM RAS Earth system model Vasilisa Vorobyeva, Evgeny Volodin, Alexey Chernenkov, Maria Tarasevich This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4288899/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The study presents a simulation of climate change across Northern Eurasia during the 20th and 21st centuries using two different versions of the Earth system model developed by the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics at the Russian Academy of Sciences. Model version INMCM5 participates in CMIP6 and has the lowest equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) among the CMIP6 models. In the next model version, INMCM6, changes in the physical parameterisations lead to an increase in ECS by a factor of 2. Changes in near-surface temperature, precipitation, snow cover area and sea ice extent simulated by both model versions are compared with available observational and reanalysis data. Climate change predictions for the middle and end of the 21st century are provided by two model versions. Both model versions simulate similar climate changes for the upcoming two decades. After the middle of 21st century, the model version with high equilibrium climate sensitivity simulates stronger climate changes over Northern Eurasia than the model version with low sensitivity. But, in general, the ratio of predicted warming is much less than the ratio of ECS. model climate change Northern Eurasia temperature precipitation sea ice area Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Minor Revision 20 May, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Apr, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 20 Apr, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 20 Apr, 2024 First submitted to journal 18 Apr, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4288899","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":293427927,"identity":"488a2469-f4b7-4279-ac86-299d2be4a50c","order_by":0,"name":"Vasilisa Vorobyeva","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA1klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACgxsJDAyMDSAm8wEQQZIWtgSStfAYEKdFsufwsQ8fdxyWMzh+5pvEzx3WcgYHeJ9J4NdyLHnmzDOHjQ3O5G6T7D2TbizZwG5GQMsZY2betsOJMxtyt0mAGP0MbGx4tfCz94C11M/sf/NM8i+Q0UaslgR+iRw2aTCDkBY2ZrZkxpln0g37JZ4ZW8u2pRvObGZjtsCvhfkww8cd1vJs/MkPb75ts5Y3ON7GeAOfFihoBhEsEPcQETUgUAdW+4E4xaNgFIyCUTDSAAB22kY2meGPrAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4979-1977","institution":"INM RAS: Institut vycislitel'noj matematiki imeni G I Marcuka Rossijskoj akademii nauk","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Vasilisa","middleName":"","lastName":"Vorobyeva","suffix":""},{"id":293427928,"identity":"c419a10b-7f14-4aa0-a11c-b60a347cca35","order_by":1,"name":"Evgeny Volodin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"INM RAS: Institut vycislitel'noj matematiki imeni G I Marcuka Rossijskoj akademii nauk","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Evgeny","middleName":"","lastName":"Volodin","suffix":""},{"id":293427929,"identity":"72873668-96fe-4834-903b-7a5e2656d93b","order_by":2,"name":"Alexey Chernenkov","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"INM RAS: Institut vycislitel'noj matematiki imeni G I Marcuka Rossijskoj akademii nauk","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alexey","middleName":"","lastName":"Chernenkov","suffix":""},{"id":293427930,"identity":"ba18f866-6336-4caf-a059-c47d6644f83b","order_by":3,"name":"Maria Tarasevich","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"INM RAS: Institut vycislitel'noj matematiki imeni G I Marcuka Rossijskoj akademii nauk","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Maria","middleName":"","lastName":"Tarasevich","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-04-18 15:55:51","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4288899/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4288899/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":55211669,"identity":"6dee0359-e5cb-4ae2-ae2b-2534d23ab9ac","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-04-24 06:46:31","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2340377,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"snarticle.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4288899/v1_covered_8cb9db15-beac-439a-a3e9-67b8bb0705fd.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Simulation of climate changes in Northern Eurasia by two versions of the INM RAS Earth system model","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"climate-dynamics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"cldy","sideBox":"Learn more about [Climate Dynamics](https://www.springer.com/journal/382)","snPcode":"382","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/382/3","title":"Climate Dynamics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"model, climate change, Northern Eurasia, temperature, precipitation, sea ice area","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4288899/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4288899/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe study presents a simulation of climate change across Northern Eurasia during the 20th and 21st centuries using two different versions of the Earth system model developed by the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics at the Russian Academy of Sciences. 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