Global wind stilling and the role of sub-monthly variability in explaining deficiencies in atmospheric reanalyses

Global wind stilling and the role of sub-monthly variability in explaining deficiencies in atmospheric reanalyses | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Global wind stilling and the role of sub-monthly variability in explaining deficiencies in atmospheric reanalyses Paul-Arthur Monerie, Reinhard Schiemann, David J Brayshaw, Jon I Robson This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8095208/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Terrestrial near-surface (10-m) wind speed decreased over the Northern Hemisphere between 1980 and 2010. We revisit this ‘global stilling’ by comparing station-based observations and multiple atmospheric reanalysis products and assessing their ability to capture the past changes in near-surface wind. We show, using a station-based wind speed dataset from the Met Office (HadISD3), that global stilling is robust and not an artefact of analysis method or observational network characteristics. In contrast to a previous study, we find that atmospheric reanalyses fail to reproduce the observed changes in wind speed over the Northern Hemisphere land, Europe and China. By decomposing wind speed variability into contributions from sub-monthly and monthly timescales, we show that the error in capturing the global stilling trend is primarily due to trends in the sub-monthly component. The exception is the products from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JRA55 and JRA55C), which reproduce global stilling over the Northern Hemisphere and Europe with high skill, though this appears to be attributable to correction when producing the dataset rather than being a fundamental property of the forecast systems used to produce the reanalysis. Our results highlight the importance of resolving sub-monthly wind variability in reanalyses and raise critical questions about the drivers of global stilling and the reliability of reanalysis-based prediction systems for understanding past and future variations of the near-surface wind speed. Near-surface wind speed global stilling HadISD3 Reanalyses Full Text Supplementary Files FigureSuppMat.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major Revision 06 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 08 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 07 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 15 Nov, 2025 First submitted to journal 12 Nov, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8095208","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":556494800,"identity":"0b903335-dea4-49f2-a8a8-0e2bdc4133f0","order_by":0,"name":"Paul-Arthur 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We revisit this \u0026lsquo;global stilling\u0026rsquo; by comparing station-based observations and multiple atmospheric reanalysis products and assessing their ability to capture the past changes in near-surface wind. We show, using a station-based wind speed dataset from the Met Office (HadISD3), that global stilling is robust and not an artefact of analysis method or observational network characteristics. In contrast to a previous study, we find that atmospheric reanalyses fail to reproduce the observed changes in wind speed over the Northern Hemisphere land, Europe and China. By decomposing wind speed variability into contributions from sub-monthly and monthly timescales, we show that the error in capturing the global stilling trend is primarily due to trends in the sub-monthly component. The exception is the products from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JRA55 and JRA55C), which reproduce global stilling over the Northern Hemisphere and Europe with high skill, though this appears to be attributable to correction when producing the dataset rather than being a fundamental property of the forecast systems used to produce the reanalysis. Our results highlight the importance of resolving sub-monthly wind variability in reanalyses and raise critical questions about the drivers of global stilling and the reliability of reanalysis-based prediction systems for understanding past and future variations of the near-surface wind speed.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Global wind stilling and the role of sub-monthly variability in explaining deficiencies in atmospheric reanalyses","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-11 06:51:36","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8095208/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Major Revision","date":"2026-01-06T23:07:51+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2025-12-08T10:39:29+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-12-07T14:33:54+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-11-15T09:47:13+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Climate Dynamics","date":"2025-11-12T05:30:43+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"climate-dynamics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"cldy","sideBox":"Learn more about [Climate Dynamics](https://www.springer.com/journal/382)","snPcode":"382","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/382/3","title":"Climate Dynamics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"44234e26-dff1-43b9-838a-7eecf991dd31","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 11th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-07T16:05:21+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-8095208","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08163-7","journal":{"identity":"climate-dynamics","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Climate Dynamics"},"publishedOn":"2026-04-01 15:58:48","publishedOnDateReadable":"April 1st, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-11 06:51:36","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s00382-026-08163-7","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08163-7","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8095208","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8095208","identity":"rs-8095208","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}