Modelling the effects of bioclimatic characteristics and climate change on the potential distribution of a monospecific speciesColophospermum mopane(Benth.) Léonard in southern Africa

Global climate change is gradually changing species distribution and their patterns of diversity. Yet, factors that influence the local distribution and habitat preferences for southern African species remain largely unexplored. Here, we computed the suitable habitats in the southern African region for Colophospermum mopane (Benth.) using the maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling approach. We utilized one Global Circulation Model (GCM) and three Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to determine the current and future distribution of C. mopane . The results showed that the distribution of C. mopane was mainly influenced by solar radiation, annual temperature range, and annual precipitation. According to the species response curves, this species preferred habitats with annual precipitation of 130-200 mm, an annual temperature range of 28° C, and elevations of about 500 m above sea level. The results highlight that the geographic range of C. mopane is likely to expand along the borders of Zambia and Zimbabwe in the future, particularly in the miombo plains. Conversely, suitable habitat areas reduce significantly in the eastern area of the southern African region, while the western areas expand. Overall, the appropriate habitat areas will likely decline in the 2050s under both RCPs and expand in the 2070s under the two scenarios. This knowledge is important for landscape planners and rangeland managers working to safeguard biodiversity from extinction. Highlights High reliability of models in habitat suitability modelling for C. mopane Solar radiation is the most significant variable for the current distribution of mopane. Climate change is and will reduce the habitat suitability of our target species.