Indonesia's land use dilemma: Balancing food security, bioenergy expansion, and deforestation risks

Indonesia's land use dilemma: Balancing food security, bioenergy expansion, and deforestation risks | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Indonesia's land use dilemma: Balancing food security, bioenergy expansion, and deforestation risks Jiehong Lou, Claire Squire, Thomas Hilde, Kyle Parker, Molly Schreier, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6378393/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In 2024, President Prabowo Subianto identified energy and food security as top policy priorities for Indonesia, targeting a biodiesel fuel blending ratio of 50% (B50) and rice production self-sufficiency through development of nationally planned food estates. However, these initiatives pose significant challenges, including the threats of mass deforestation, land conversion, and emissions, as well as competition between food and energy crops. This study assesses the potential land use and emissions implications of meeting Indonesia’s ambitious biodiesel blending targets and rice production goals. Using an improved high-resolution land cover map, multi-criteria evaluation, and production scenario modeling, we analyze the spatial trade-offs between forest conservation, food security, and biofuel expansion. Our findings indicate that achieving the biodiesel B50 target by 2030 will require extensive land conversion, including 4.85–8.55 million hectares of land, while efforts to achieve rice self-sufficiency could convert up to 2.3 million hectares, with significant overlap between food and energy production zones. Emissions associated with land clearing, peatland degradation, and deforestation could surpass historic emissions events, undermining Indonesia’s climate commitments. This research underscores the need for more integrated land-use planning to balance economic development with environmental sustainability and calls for enhanced policy frameworks that mitigate trade-offs between food and energy production. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Forestry Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SI44.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6378393","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":452120795,"identity":"fe6c6843-14a5-44ee-a8d7-c355c0f9e55e","order_by":0,"name":"Jiehong 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However, these initiatives pose significant challenges, including the threats of mass deforestation, land conversion, and emissions, as well as competition between food and energy crops. This study assesses the potential land use and emissions implications of meeting Indonesia\u0026rsquo;s ambitious biodiesel blending targets and rice production goals. Using an improved high-resolution land cover map, multi-criteria evaluation, and production scenario modeling, we analyze the spatial trade-offs between forest conservation, food security, and biofuel expansion. Our findings indicate that achieving the biodiesel B50 target by 2030 will require extensive land conversion, including 4.85\u0026ndash;8.55\u0026nbsp;million hectares of land, while efforts to achieve rice self-sufficiency could convert up to 2.3\u0026nbsp;million hectares, with significant overlap between food and energy production zones. 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