The Response of Tropical Cyclone Hazard to Natural and Forced Warming Patterns

Abstract This study quantifies the influence of the pattern of sea surface temperature change in the tropical Pacific on tropical cyclone hazard. After applying a tropical cyclone downscaling model to downscale a climate model with an ''El Niño-like" forced response, it is found that the warming pattern induces an ''El Niño-like" change to tropical cyclone hazard. The magnitude of hazard change owing to this warming pattern is estimated to be around the same order of magnitude as that owing to the forced response that does not project onto the same warming pattern. Given the uncertainty around the future pattern of Pacific warming, a storyline with a ''La Niña-like" warming pattern, of similar magnitude to the observations, is created. In this scenario, near-term tropical cyclone hazard over coastal Asia and the Atlantic basin increases significantly, highlighting the sensitivity of local tropical cyclone hazard to the pattern of warming.