Climate change mitigation benefits for labor exceed mitigation costs

Abstract Rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions is critical to limit global warming below 2°C. However, the magnitude and timing of beneficial effects of emissions reductions on labor productivity and the size of those effects relative to the costs of emissions reductions remain understudied. Here we use reanalysis data and climate model simulations to estimate current and future potential global labor losses associated with heat and air pollution exposure. We also examine the timing of benefits for avoided air pollution and heat exposure under a mitigation scenario consistent with limiting warming to around 2°C. Under the 2°C scenario compared to a higher emissions scenario representative of current mitigation policies, we find large, near-term benefits for countries with relatively poor air quality, such as China, India, and Nigeria. Avoided global labor productivity losses associated with air pollution exceed $600 billion/year within a decade, and peak by mid-century at about $860 billion/year. By contrast, avoided productivity losses associated with heat exposure do not exceed $500 billion/year until mid-century, but continue to grow for the remainder of the century. Over all time horizons, the avoided global labor productivity losses from aggressive emissions reductions exceed estimated additional energy investments needed to limit warming to ~2°C.