Daily precipitation variability in Antarctica causally dominated by large-scale atmospheric dynamics

Daily precipitation variability in Antarctica causally dominated by large-scale atmospheric dynamics | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Daily precipitation variability in Antarctica causally dominated by large-scale atmospheric dynamics Sebastian Berghald, Nicole P.M. van Lipzig, Hugues Goosse, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8397169/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Antarctica's climate system is undergoing rapid changes, but causal links between its components, such as sea ice, precipitation, and atmospheric dynamics remain poorly understood. While recent studies suggest that declining sea ice may enhance Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) through increased moisture availability for precipitation, these findings are mainly based on correlational evidence, and the underlying causal mechanisms are still debated. In this study, we combine correlation analysis with the PCMCI+ causal discovery algorithm, applied to reanalysis data, to study the relationships between sea ice concentration, evaporation, moisture convergence, and precipitation over Antarctica. Our results show that meridional wind variability and moisture convergence are the primary drivers of daily precipitation variability across the continent. Unlike some previous studies focusing on longer timescales (e.g. monthly or interannual), we do not find a direct causal influence of sea ice concentration on precipitation. Instead, large-scale atmospheric dynamics dominate day-to-day variability, mediating the connection between sea ice and precipitation. While longer-term feedbacks such as ice-albedo effects may still be relevant, our findings emphasise the critical role of synoptic-scale atmospheric processes in controlling Antarctic precipitation. These results have important implications for a better understanding of processes influencing the Antarctic mass balance, particularly in the context of ongoing and future global sea level rise. Antarctica Southern Ocean surface mass balance causal discovery sea ice atmospheric dynamics Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Feb, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 16 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 22 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 18 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8397169","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":575695639,"identity":"a865a5b6-5035-4f59-a364-4f52c57dcb82","order_by":0,"name":"Sebastian Berghald","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0005-4237-5155","institution":"KU Leuven Faculty of Science: Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Faculteit Wetenschappen","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sebastian","middleName":"","lastName":"Berghald","suffix":""},{"id":575695640,"identity":"878c77ca-beb6-4d5b-bd46-3459452acedc","order_by":1,"name":"Nicole P.M. van Lipzig","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"KU Leuven Faculty of Science: Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Faculteit Wetenschappen","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nicole","middleName":"P.M. van","lastName":"Lipzig","suffix":""},{"id":575695641,"identity":"ad2dc87c-541f-4d94-ac11-e9b4153d2203","order_by":2,"name":"Hugues Goosse","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Université catholique de Louvain: Universite Catholique de Louvain","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hugues","middleName":"","lastName":"Goosse","suffix":""},{"id":575695642,"identity":"3cb0ebc9-538c-4859-bec7-b196cae600b6","order_by":3,"name":"Irina V. 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