Stochastic Convergence of Coal Consumption – Fresh Evidence with Sharp and Smooth breaks

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This study employed panel unit root tests with sharp and smooth breaks to find stochastic convergence in coal consumption for 34 of 39 countries, with divergence observed in five specific nations.

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This preprint reexamines stochastic convergence in coal consumption across 39 countries using panel unit root tests that allow for both sharp and smooth structural breaks, building on Bahmani-Oskooee et al. (2014). The authors report convergence in 34 of 39 countries, while coal consumption for Ireland, China, South Africa, Indonesia, and Vietnam is divergence, meaning shocks have permanent effects on the consumption trajectory. They further state that time-varying fitted intercepts improve robustness compared with traditional unit root tests, and that conventional approaches have lower efficiency for detecting stationarity; they also argue that future work should model smooth breaks in addition to sharp breaks. The paper does not explicitly discuss endometriosis or adenomyosis; it was included in the corpus via a keyword match in the upstream search index.

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Abstract

This study attempts to revisit the stochastic convergence of coal consumption for 39 countries through panel unit root test with both sharp and smooth breaks proposed by Bahmani-Oskooee et al. (2014). The empirical findings support convergence for 34 of 39 countries. The coal consumption for Ireland, China, South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam is divergence. That is, shocks to coal consumption for these five countries would make permanent effects on the move path. The time-varying fitted intercepts indicate the more robust estimation of this study. The traditional unit root tests perform lower efficiency on testing the stationarity of coal consumption. Besides, not only sharp breaks should be considered in the future studies, but also smooth breaks should be also approximated. Policy conservation policy would make transitory impacts on coal consumption for converging group, but permanently affect coal consumption for diverging group. For Ireland, China, South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam, the policy conservation policy would indirectly affect aggregate economic sectors related to consume coal energy. However, to cut the increasing trend of coal consumption, other renewable energy should further be explored. Finally, some future research directions are recommended in the end.
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Stochastic Convergence of Coal Consumption – Fresh Evidence with Sharp and Smooth breaks | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Stochastic Convergence of Coal Consumption – Fresh Evidence with Sharp and Smooth breaks Yifei Cai, Yu-Cheng Chang, Tsangyao Chang, Mei-Chih Wang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2695727/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study attempts to revisit the stochastic convergence of coal consumption for 39 countries through panel unit root test with both sharp and smooth breaks proposed by Bahmani-Oskooee et al. ( 2014 ). The empirical findings support convergence for 34 of 39 countries. The coal consumption for Ireland, China, South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam is divergence. That is, shocks to coal consumption for these five countries would make permanent effects on the move path. The time-varying fitted intercepts indicate the more robust estimation of this study. The traditional unit root tests perform lower efficiency on testing the stationarity of coal consumption. Besides, not only sharp breaks should be considered in the future studies, but also smooth breaks should be also approximated. Policy conservation policy would make transitory impacts on coal consumption for converging group, but permanently affect coal consumption for diverging group. For Ireland, China, South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam, the policy conservation policy would indirectly affect aggregate economic sectors related to consume coal energy. However, to cut the increasing trend of coal consumption, other renewable energy should further be explored. Finally, some future research directions are recommended in the end. Coal Consumption Panel Unit Root Test Sharp Breaks Smooth Breaks Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-2695727","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":183683460,"identity":"c8913dd8-9dbe-4c5e-a078-b948b04a2063","order_by":0,"name":"Yifei Cai","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Teesside University Business School: Teesside University International Business School","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yifei","middleName":"","lastName":"Cai","suffix":""},{"id":183683461,"identity":"7d4ec98b-d54f-4d8f-8bfb-120b81c6800b","order_by":1,"name":"Yu-Cheng Chang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Asia University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yu-Cheng","middleName":"","lastName":"Chang","suffix":""},{"id":183683462,"identity":"367de036-5ed1-44c9-9ee5-60b5fd66cb40","order_by":2,"name":"Tsangyao Chang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Feng Chia University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tsangyao","middleName":"","lastName":"Chang","suffix":""},{"id":183683463,"identity":"36f66ab0-0bc3-4511-a41a-d96f9862cb70","order_by":3,"name":"Mei-Chih Wang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA0ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDADfhCRUECKFskGkBYDUrQYHACTxKg8fvbwyx8Vd+SNz69O/PDAgEGeX+wAAS1n8tKsec48M9x24+1mCaDDDGfOTsCvxexAjpkxY9thxm03zm4AaUkwuE1Iy/k3ZoY/2w7bb55xdvMP4rTcyDF+wNt2OHEDf+824myxv/HGjJnnzOHkGTd4t1kkGEgQ9otkf47xxx8Vh237+89uvvmjwkaeX5qAFiBgkwBTEmCVEgSVgwDzBzDFf4Ao1aNgFIyCUTACAQBxo0nlmHIwAAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"National Taichung University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mei-Chih","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2023-03-15 10:12:52","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-2695727/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2695727/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":34390798,"identity":"6f377581-d490-4809-a552-c05c646c99fd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2023-03-17 04:03:00","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":489927,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"EPCOAL20233.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2695727/v1_covered.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Stochastic Convergence of Coal Consumption – Fresh Evidence with Sharp and Smooth breaks","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Coal Consumption, Panel Unit Root Test, Sharp Breaks, Smooth Breaks","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-2695727/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2695727/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study attempts to revisit the stochastic convergence of coal consumption for 39 countries through panel unit root test with both sharp and smooth breaks proposed by Bahmani-Oskooee et al. 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