Spatio-Temporal Variability and Trend of Rainfall and Its Association with Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature in West Harerge Zone, Eastern Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Spatio-Temporal Variability and Trend of Rainfall and Its Association with Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature in West Harerge Zone, Eastern Ethiopia Getachew Bayable Tiruneh, Gedamu Amare, Getnet Alemu, Temesgen Gashaw This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-104059/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 20 Jan, 2021 Read the published version in Environmental Systems Research → Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background: Rainfall variability is a common characteristic in Ethiopia and it exceedingly affects agriculture particularly in the eastern parts of the country where rainfall is relatively scarce. Hence, understanding the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall is indispensable for planning mitigation measures during high and low rainfall seasons. This study examined the spatio-temporal variability and trends of rainfall in the West Harerge Zone, eastern Ethiopia. Method: The coefficient of variation (CV) and standardized anomaly index (SAI) was employed to analyze rainfall variability while Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slop estimator were employed to examine the trend and magnitude of the rainfall changes, respectively. The association between rainfall and Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was also evaluated by the Pearson correlation coefficient (r). Results: The annual rainfall CV ranges from 12-19.36% while the seasonal rainfall CV extends from 15-28.49%, 24-35.58%, and 38-75.9% for average Kiremt (June-September), Belg (February-May), and Bega (October-January) seasons, respectively (1983-2019). On the monthly basis, the trends of rainfall decreased in all months except in July, October, and November. However, the trends of rainfall were not statistically significant (α = 0.05), unlike November. The annual rainfall trends showed a non-significant decreasing trend. On a seasonal basis, the trend of mean Kiremt and Belg seasons rainfall was decreased. But, it increased in Bega season although it was not statistically significant. Moreover, the correlation between rainfall and Pacific Ocean SST was negative for Kiremt while positive for Belg and Bega seasons. Besides, the correlation between rainfall and Pacific Ocean SST was negative at annual time scales. Conclusions: High spatial and temporal rainfall variability on monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales was observed in the study area. Seasonal rainfall has high inter-annual variability in the dry season (Bega) than other seasons. The trends in rainfall were decreased in most of the months. Besides, the trend of rainfall was increased annually and in the Bega season rather than other seasons. Generally, the occurrence of droughts in the study area was associated with ENSO events like most other parts of Ethiopia and East Africa. Environmental Engineering Environmental Economics CHIRPS MK trend test Rainfall Variability SST West Harerge Zone Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 10 Figure 11 Figure 12 Full Text Due to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. However, the manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF. Tables Due to technical limitations, table 1, table 2, table 3, table 4, table 5, table 6 are only available as a download in the Supplemental Files section. Supplementary Files Tables.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 20 Jan, 2021 Read the published version in Environmental Systems Research → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major Revision 28 Nov, 2020 Review # 2 received at journal 18 Nov, 2020 Review # 3 received at journal 18 Nov, 2020 Review # 1 received at journal 10 Nov, 2020 Reviewer # 2 agreed at journal 03 Nov, 2020 Reviewer # 3 agreed at journal 03 Nov, 2020 Reviewers invited by journal 03 Nov, 2020 Reviewer # 1 agreed at journal 03 Nov, 2020 Editor assigned by journal 31 Oct, 2020 Submission checks completed at journal 31 Oct, 2020 Editor invited by journal 31 Oct, 2020 First submitted to journal 28 Oct, 2020 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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However, \nthe manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Tables","content":"\u003cp\u003eDue to technical limitations, table 1, table 2, table 3, table 4, table 5, table 6 are only available as a download in the Supplemental Files section.\u003c/p\u003e\n"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"
[email protected]","identity":"environmental-systems-research","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"ensr","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Systems Research](http://environmentalsystemsresearch.springeropen.com)","snPcode":"40068","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/40068/3","title":"Environmental Systems Research","twitterHandle":"@SpringerOpen","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"CHIRPS, MK trend test, Rainfall Variability, SST, West Harerge Zone ","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-104059/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-104059/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBackground:\u003c/strong\u003e Rainfall variability is a common characteristic in Ethiopia and it exceedingly affects agriculture particularly in the eastern parts of the country where rainfall is relatively scarce. Hence, understanding the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall is indispensable for planning mitigation measures during high and low rainfall seasons. This study examined the spatio-temporal variability and trends of rainfall in the West Harerge Zone, eastern Ethiopia.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethod:\u003c/strong\u003e The coefficient of variation (CV) and standardized anomaly index (SAI) was employed to analyze rainfall variability while Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slop estimator were employed to examine the trend and magnitude of the rainfall changes, respectively. The association between rainfall and Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was also evaluated by the Pearson correlation coefficient (r).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults:\u003c/strong\u003e The annual rainfall CV ranges from 12-19.36% while the seasonal rainfall CV extends from 15-28.49%, 24-35.58%, and 38-75.9% for average \u003cem\u003eKiremt \u003c/em\u003e(June-September), \u003cem\u003eBelg\u003c/em\u003e (February-May), and \u003cem\u003eBega \u003c/em\u003e(October-January) seasons, respectively (1983-2019). On the monthly basis, the trends of rainfall decreased in all months except in July, October, and November. However, the trends of rainfall were not statistically significant (α = 0.05), unlike November. The annual rainfall trends showed a non-significant decreasing trend. On a seasonal basis, the trend of mean \u003cem\u003eKiremt \u003c/em\u003eand \u003cem\u003eBelg\u003c/em\u003e seasons rainfall was decreased. But, it increased in \u003cem\u003eBega \u003c/em\u003eseason although it was not statistically significant. Moreover, the correlation between rainfall and Pacific Ocean SST was negative for \u003cem\u003eKiremt \u003c/em\u003ewhile positive for \u003cem\u003eBelg\u003c/em\u003e and \u003cem\u003eBega \u003c/em\u003eseasons. Besides, the correlation between rainfall and Pacific Ocean SST was negative at annual time scales.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusions:\u003c/strong\u003e High spatial and temporal rainfall variability on monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales was observed in the study area. Seasonal rainfall has high inter-annual variability in the dry season\u003cem\u003e (Bega) \u003c/em\u003ethan other seasons. The trends in rainfall were decreased in most of the months. Besides, the trend of rainfall was increased annually and in the \u003cem\u003eBega \u003c/em\u003eseason rather than other seasons. Generally, the occurrence of droughts in the study area was associated with ENSO events like most other parts of Ethiopia and East Africa.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Spatio-Temporal Variability and Trend of Rainfall and Its Association with Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature in West Harerge Zone, Eastern Ethiopia","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2020-11-11 22:09:27","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-104059/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Major Revision","date":"2020-11-29T00:00:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2020-11-19T00:00:00+00:00","index":2,"fulltext":"Recommendation: Reviewer's comments unavailable due to the journal's policy.\n"},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2020-11-19T00:00:00+00:00","index":3,"fulltext":"Recommendation: Reviewer's comments unavailable due to the journal's policy.\n"},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2020-11-11T00:00:00+00:00","index":1,"fulltext":"Recommendation: Reviewer's comments unavailable due to the journal's policy.\n"},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2020-11-04T01:00:00+00:00","index":2,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2020-11-04T01:00:00+00:00","index":3,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2020-11-04T00:00:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2020-11-04T00:00:00+00:00","index":1,"fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2020-11-01T00:00:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2020-10-31T23:00:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2020-10-31T23:00:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"","date":"2020-10-29T00:00:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"
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