Stochastic Transitions in African Entrepreneurship: A Markov Chain Analysis of Ecosystem Dynamics and Policy Levers

Stochastic Transitions in African Entrepreneurship: A Markov Chain Analysis of Ecosystem Dynamics and Policy Levers | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Stochastic Transitions in African Entrepreneurship: A Markov Chain Analysis of Ecosystem Dynamics and Policy Levers Mohamed Yasser BOUNNITE This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7490947/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In the context of the rapidly evolving innovation ecosystems across Africa, this study investigates the advanced application of Markov chains as a robust analytical framework for modeling probabilistic transitions between various stages of entrepreneurial development. By integrating empirical data enriched with contextual variables, such as technological adoption, access to financing, and the influence of public policies, the research offers a dynamic and systemic perspective on the trajectories of African startups . The proposed approach identifies critical stages within the entrepreneurial lifecycle and outlines strategic levers aimed at guiding both institutional and private actors in enhancing support mechanisms for innovation. Applied Statistics Entrepreneurship Development Economics Markov chains African entrepreneurship Innovation ecosystems Stochastic modeling Entrepreneurial transitions Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7490947","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":507599688,"identity":"65c31c0d-3d00-4968-b26a-792c1522d289","order_by":0,"name":"Mohamed Yasser BOUNNITE","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAvUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHhAhwcDA3gBiHCBeiwQDzwHStACtkUggUotuA+/Bx7w7LOr4JZ8/ky7cc4eBv707Aa8WswN8yca8ZyQkJGfnmEnPePaMQeLM2Q0EtPCYSfO2SUgY3M5hk+Y5cJjBQCKXSC32N48/I1GLgQSDGZFaDvMlG85tk5CccSbH2HrGgcM8hP1yvPfgg7dtdfz87ccf3i44cFiOv70XvxYGZjQ2D37l+LSPglEwCkbBKIADAMvfQP3/+rz1AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-6221-9270","institution":"SUP'RH Business School \u0026 AI","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mohamed","middleName":"Yasser","lastName":"BOUNNITE","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-29 18:29:40","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7490947/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7490947/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":90476625,"identity":"65703028-659c-4c61-83b7-69e00853edb2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-03 07:09:35","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":549843,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"PreprintJAB.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7490947/v1_covered_56c0147e-9a17-442f-89a5-b668d448fcb0.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eStochastic Transitions in African Entrepreneurship: A Markov Chain Analysis of Ecosystem Dynamics and Policy Lever\u003cstrong\u003es\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"SUP'RH Business School \u0026 AI","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Markov chains, African entrepreneurship, Innovation ecosystems, Stochastic modeling, Entrepreneurial transitions","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7490947/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7490947/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIn the context of the rapidly evolving innovation ecosystems across Africa, this study investigates the advanced application of Markov chains as a robust analytical framework for \u003cu\u003emodeling\u003c/u\u003e probabilistic transitions between various stages of entrepreneurial development. 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