Measuring the Coherency of Turning Points and Amplitudes in Long Cycles Across the Advanced Capitalist Economies Since 1801

Measuring the Coherency of Turning Points and Amplitudes in Long Cycles Across the Advanced Capitalist Economies Since 1801 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Measuring the Coherency of Turning Points and Amplitudes in Long Cycles Across the Advanced Capitalist Economies Since 1801 Nicholas Underwood, Jason Hecht This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8628217/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Long-duration economic and financial cycles of about fifty years were identified by Nikolai D. Kondratiev in 1926, for eight English and five French time series that spanned the late eighteenth, nineteenth, and early twentieth centuries. Joseph Schumpeter endorsed and promoted Kondratiev’s work on long cycles which also corresponded to periodicities derived from his trigonometric specifications and supported by numerous graphs and charts published in Business Cycles (1939). Recent studies using advanced time series econometric techniques including wavelet and spectral analysis, as well as unobserved component models continue to support Kondratiev’s long cycle estimate. The lacuna explored in this paper is the coherence in the timing of long cycle turning points (“synchronicity”) and amplitude (“similarity) across the advanced capitalist economies since 1801. Using the methodology employed by Mink et. al. (2012), and real per capita income time series from the online Maddison Data Project, we find support for a coherent amplitude of long cycles, but less evidence for the common timing of the expansionary and contractionary phases across advanced economies. JEL Classifications: E 37, F 02, F 42, N1 Long wave cycles periodicity synchronicity similarity Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8628217","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":585121613,"identity":"1fbf7bf9-5fdd-41d5-a6f9-235b325dccb1","order_by":0,"name":"Nicholas Underwood","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nicholas","middleName":"","lastName":"Underwood","suffix":""},{"id":585121614,"identity":"4497617f-d67e-4dcf-8721-d2211b0a8571","order_by":1,"name":"Jason Hecht","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAy0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxhkMDMwMDDYIgQbitCSkkaCFQQKs5TAJWphnNx/8XPjjfD7/tMPPHnxgsJHdcICQw+YcS5aekXDbcsbtNHPDGQxpxoS1zMgxY+ZJuG3AcDvBTJqH4XAiEVryvwG1nDOQv53+DajlPzFactiAWg4YGNzOAdlygBgtacbSPGnJBoa3c8oNZxgkG88kpMVwRvLDzzw2dgZyt9O3PfhQYSfbR1BLA4LNxsBgQEA5CMgjsdmIUD8KRsEoGAUjEQAAcmtBiVViea8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Ramapo College","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jason","middleName":"","lastName":"Hecht","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-17 20:53:18","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8628217/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8628217/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106404424,"identity":"4655b1e4-c54c-4ed8-acbb-d7bf6508e198","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-08 09:15:59","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":819350,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"UnderwoodandHecht.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8628217/v1_covered_3ef069e3-e563-4c8c-bf28-be6459b3bbdd.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Measuring the Coherency of Turning Points and Amplitudes in Long Cycles Across the Advanced Capitalist Economies Since 1801","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Long wave cycles, periodicity, synchronicity, similarity","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8628217/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8628217/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eLong-duration economic and financial cycles of about fifty years were identified by Nikolai D. 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