Supply Chain Disruptions: Firm-level evidence from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

Supply Chain Disruptions: Firm-level evidence from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Supply Chain Disruptions: Firm-level evidence from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake lucas zimmer This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3964866/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 07 Feb, 2025 Read the published version in Review of World Economics → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In this article, we employed firm-level data from France and a difference-in-differences approach to examine how input shortages propagate through global value chains, using the Tohoku earthquake as a natural experiment. Our findings reveal an 8% relative decrease in imports for French firms sourcing inputs from Japan, with more substantial declines for those highly reliant on Japanese suppliers. This is coupled with a 12.8% relative increase in imports from China for these exposed firms. Additionally, we discover that this transition is primarily driven by the top 5% of large firms and is prominently observed within the automotive sector. Regarding the transmission of input shortages through the global supply chain, we find that this shock only affects the exports of firms with the lowest levels of inventory, exhibiting variations across sectors and a time-dependent pattern. Surprisingly, these affected firms have not adjusted their inventory strategies from just-in-time practices to safety stocks. Classification JEL F1, F6. Tohoku earthquake Global Value Chain Resilience Import reallocation Inventories Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 07 Feb, 2025 Read the published version in Review of World Economics → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revisions needed 03 May, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Feb, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 24 Feb, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 18 Feb, 2024 First submitted to journal 16 Feb, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3964866","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":274758562,"identity":"64da206c-bcba-464b-aeae-f0b2f75cee90","order_by":0,"name":"lucas zimmer","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABBElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACPijNAyY/MDAkACkDMIe9AbsWNmQtjDOQtfAcwK8FDJh5iNIikfzw4w+GOhndaYePfbZtY8jjlz688cHPtsMMPNLY9bBJpBlL8zCw8ZjdTkuendvGUCzZl1Zs2NuWxsDDl4BDSw6DNNARQC05xsy5bf8TN5zhMZPgbbNhsOfB5bAc5p8/GCSAWvI/M1u2MYC0mP/82yYBNAanFjYJHgYDkC3MzIwQLWbMIFtwauF5ZmbNY5AA8osxY885oF962IqlZc6l8eDSws+e/Pjmj4o6e7PbyY8ZfpQBQ4yHeePHN2WH5XBpgQADLGJ4NYyCUTAKRsEowA8A7ppJgLCi5rUAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1170-8560","institution":"Universite de Bordeaux College Droit Science Politique Economie et Gestion","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"lucas","middleName":"","lastName":"zimmer","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-02-17 19:17:09","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3964866/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3964866/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-024-00580-2","type":"published","date":"2025-02-07T15:58:21+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":75930563,"identity":"22a9a57d-e180-4289-b04f-2d42b67092db","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-10 16:13:15","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":913549,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplyChainDisruptionsFirmlevelevidence.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3964866/v1_covered_3fb0397f-47e7-423e-b0b7-08828cc38c49.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Supply Chain Disruptions: Firm-level evidence from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"review-of-world-economics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"rowe","sideBox":"Learn more about [Review of World Economics](http://link.springer.com/journal/10290)","snPcode":"10290","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/rowe/default2.aspx","title":"Review of World Economics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Tohoku earthquake, Global Value Chain, Resilience, Import reallocation, Inventories","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3964866/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3964866/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIn this article, we employed firm-level data from France and a difference-in-differences approach to examine how input shortages propagate through global value chains, using the Tohoku earthquake as a natural experiment. 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