Incorporating Ocean Waves Improves Forecasts of Strong Tropical Cyclones

Incorporating Ocean Waves Improves Forecasts of Strong Tropical Cyclones | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Incorporating Ocean Waves Improves Forecasts of Strong Tropical Cyclones Ka-Kit Tung, Songlin Li, Biao Zhao, Qi Shu, Vladimir Ryabinin, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7048480/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs), called typhoons or hurricanes depending on the ocean basin, pose grave threats to lives and property1,2,3. With remote sensing and increasing computing power, more accurate prediction of their stormtracks has been achieved4. However, the destructive power of a TC is related to its intensity. Yet operational forecasts severely underestimate both the rapid intensification (RI) and the peak intensity of strong TCs5,6,7, while overestimate the intensity of weak TCs8,9,10. Here we show that this twin problem can be solved by incorporating the effects of ocean waves at the air-sea interface, which are absent in most forecasting models: Sea sprays generated by wave breaking significantly increase the heat flux to the atmosphere, enhancing both RI and TC peak intensity. For strong winds, reduction of surface drag is observed over foamed ocean surface. These two enhancing effects are balanced for weak TCs by surface-wave mixing, which deepens the ocean mixed layer and decreases sea surface temperature. Post-verification shows that the new model does not suffer the underprediction of RI intensity. The probability of detection increased to 90% when applied for typhoons in the Northwest Pacific. Similar improvements in the quality of prediction can be expected for hurricanes in the Atlantic. Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Extendeddatafiguresandtables.docx Extended Data figures and tables Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7048480","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":483687372,"identity":"e84ec513-a95e-4e55-b3b6-0de27950f27d","order_by":0,"name":"Ka-Kit 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With remote sensing and increasing computing power, more accurate prediction of their stormtracks has been achieved4. However, the destructive power of a TC is related to its intensity. Yet operational forecasts severely underestimate both the rapid intensification (RI) and the peak intensity of strong TCs5,6,7, while overestimate the intensity of weak TCs8,9,10. Here we show that this twin problem can be solved by incorporating the effects of ocean waves at the air-sea interface, which are absent in most forecasting models: Sea sprays generated by wave breaking significantly increase the heat flux to the atmosphere, enhancing both RI and TC peak intensity. For strong winds, reduction of surface drag is observed over foamed ocean surface. These two enhancing effects are balanced for weak TCs by surface-wave mixing, which deepens the ocean mixed layer and decreases sea surface temperature. Post-verification shows that the new model does not suffer the underprediction of RI intensity. The probability of detection increased to 90% when applied for typhoons in the Northwest Pacific. Similar improvements in the quality of prediction can be expected for hurricanes in the Atlantic.","manuscriptTitle":"Incorporating Ocean Waves Improves Forecasts of Strong Tropical Cyclones","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-07-16 11:24:16","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7048480/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"communications-earth-and-environment","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"commsenv","sideBox":"Learn more about [Communications Earth and Environment](https://www.nature.com/commsenv/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Communications Earth \u0026 Environment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Communications Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"9b823ea1-1efc-47ac-8515-288c3a22edf4","owner":[],"postedDate":"July 16th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":51359097,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards"},{"id":51359098,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics"},{"id":51359099,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-12-17T03:25:35+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-07-16 11:24:16","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7048480","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7048480","identity":"rs-7048480","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}