Liquidity and Risk in OTC Markets: A Theory of Asset Pricing and Portfolio Flows

We develop an asset-pricing model with heterogeneous investors and search frictions. Trade is intermediated by risk-neutral dealers subject to capacity constraints. Risk-averse investors can direct their search towards dealers based on price and execution speed. Order flows affect the risk premium, volatility, and equilibrium interest rate. We propose a new solution method to characterize the equilibrium analytically. We assess the quantitative implications of the model in response to a large adverse shock. Consistent with the empirical evidence from the COVID-19 crisis, we find an increase in the risk premium and market illiquidity, and a decline in interest rates.