“A timely assistance” or “An additional burden”? Study on the impact of digital technology on grain production resilience

“A timely assistance” or “An additional burden”? Study on the impact of digital technology on grain production resilience | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article “A timely assistance” or “An additional burden”? Study on the impact of digital technology on grain production resilience Jiabin Xu, Yufan Mu, Yaru Qin, Haoyang Wen, Cuixia Li This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8883859/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Grain security is cornerstone of national stability. In light of increasingly severe challenges in grain supply, digital technology, a new driving force for reshaping the agricultural production paradigm, is becoming a critical path to strengthening grain production resilience and ensuring stable supply. This paper, takes 30 provinces in China spanning from 2011 to 2023 as research samples. And adopting the two-way fixed effects model, it constructs a theoretical framework—“Digital Technology-Three Factors of Productivity-Grain Production Resilience”. to empirically analyze the direct impact and mediating mechanism of digital technology on grain production resilience. Research results show that digital technology exerts a significant promotional impact on grain production resilience—a conclusion that remains robust after a series of reliability tests, including replacing explanatory variables, excluding specific year samples, winsorization, changing to the Tobit model, and excluding regional samples. Meanwhile, this impact shows significant regional heterogeneity. Specifically, the promotional effect of digital technology is most prominent in major grain-producing areas, economically underdeveloped regions, and non-humid areas. Mechanism analysis reveals that this impact is primarily achieved through three transmission pathways: enhancing farmers’ digital application capabilities, improving the level of agricultural socialization services, and promoting land scale management. Finally, this impact presents a significant single threshold effect regarding the level of fiscal support for agriculture: once this level exceeds the threshold value of 0.0759, the positive nonlinear empowering effect of digital technology becomes more significant. The research conclusions contribute to a deeper understanding of the driving effect of digital technology and provide theoretical support and policy recommendations for increasing investment in agricultural digitalization, stimulating the potential of productivity factors, addressing regional differences, and strengthening fiscal support for agriculture. Social science/Development studies Business and commerce/Economics Social science/Economics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Grain Production Resilience Digital Technology Productivity Leap Digital Drive Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 05 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 16 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Mar, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 20 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 20 Mar, 2026 Editor invited by journal 04 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 28 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 28 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8883859","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":610789013,"identity":"3d3a7d5c-2440-4305-b5b6-816ed24451eb","order_by":0,"name":"Jiabin Xu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Northeast Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jiabin","middleName":"","lastName":"Xu","suffix":""},{"id":610789014,"identity":"d085b7d8-9767-404d-854d-177c8d048a1b","order_by":1,"name":"Yufan Mu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Northeast Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yufan","middleName":"","lastName":"Mu","suffix":""},{"id":610789015,"identity":"f7d494be-692d-4c19-baf8-7e35fd96665a","order_by":2,"name":"Yaru Qin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Northeast Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yaru","middleName":"","lastName":"Qin","suffix":""},{"id":610789016,"identity":"aec761ac-eeb7-4c58-9b58-d27298c3d45c","order_by":3,"name":"Haoyang Wen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Northeast Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Haoyang","middleName":"","lastName":"Wen","suffix":""},{"id":610789017,"identity":"66835f5e-429e-4add-88b3-f49ad30bcea9","order_by":4,"name":"Cuixia Li","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAz0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACPmYgkcAgwcDA3nz4wQcDGzuCWtjgWniOpRnOKEhLJqwFzpLIMZDm+XCIsYGgFnbmZxIP2yzkgbYkGNsYHGBmYD98dAN+h7GZSSSckTBsYG8+8DjH4A4fA09a2g38WnjYJBIqJBgbQLbkGDxjZpDgMSNCi4GEfQPILxYGhxkbiNNSIZEI1sJAnBY2YwugX5LbQIHcY5CWzEbIL/z8hx/e/NlWZ9sPisoff2zs+NkPH8OrBWEdBmMUjIJRMApGAfkAAK9GPsEH0Tk2AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Northeast Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Cuixia","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-15 05:38:20","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8883859/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8883859/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105564713,"identity":"ee624fca-a9ed-4382-b8c9-01b7c8b15e93","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-27 12:50:36","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":777268,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"AtimelyassistanceorAnadditionalburdenStudyontheimpactofdigitaltechnologyongrainproductionresilience.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8883859/v1_covered_62f1c13e-230e-4dec-b10a-48708fe6b907.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e“A timely assistance” or “An additional burden”? 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In light of increasingly severe challenges in grain supply, digital technology, a new driving force for reshaping the agricultural production paradigm, is becoming a critical path to strengthening grain production resilience and ensuring stable supply. This paper, takes 30 provinces in China spanning from 2011 to 2023 as research samples. And adopting the two-way fixed effects model, it constructs a theoretical framework\u0026mdash;\u0026ldquo;Digital Technology-Three Factors of Productivity-Grain Production Resilience\u0026rdquo;. to empirically analyze the direct impact and mediating mechanism of digital technology on grain production resilience. 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