Predicting the habitat suitability for endangered tree species Pterocarpus marsupium in Nepal, using ensemble species distribution models

Predicting the habitat suitability for endangered tree species Pterocarpus marsupium in Nepal, using ensemble species distribution models | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 7 April 2026 V1 Latest version Share on Predicting the habitat suitability for endangered tree species Pterocarpus marsupium in Nepal, using ensemble species distribution models Authors : Ripu Kunwar 0000-0002-9303-0932 , Satyam Chaudhari 0000-0002-4450-9445 [email protected] , Shreehari Bhattarai 0000-0002-7926-4011 , Binaya Adhikari 0000-0002-1777-5879 , Babita Khadka , Gokarna Thapa , Ananta Bhandari , and Man Bhatt Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.177554214.43558193/v1 162 views 78 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Pterocarpus marsupium Roxb., locally known as Bijaysal, is a high-value tropical deciduous tree with a restricted and fragmented distribution in Nepal. We integrated 129 spatially occurring records with climatic, anthropogenic, edaphic, and topographic variables in an ensemble species distribution modelling framework (biomod2) to project current and future (2050s and 2090s) habitat suitability under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios. Minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality were the dominant climatic drivers, followed by soil organic carbon, bulk density, and human footprint. The current suitable habitat is limited (11,154 km²; 7.6 % of Nepal) and confined to the western and central lowlands. Future projections indicate habitat expansion ranging from 40 % (SSP1-2.6 2090s) to 313 % (SSP2-4.5 2050s) with consistent southeastward centroid shifts (46–127 km), reflecting both northward expansion into the mid‑hills and eastward reorganization within the lowlands. However, these projections should be interpreted with caution, as actual migration may be limited by seed dispersal mechanisms and soil suitability in high-elevation zones. The unimodal response to human footprint challenges the conventional protected-area paradigm and indicates that well-managed community forests can serve as critical climate refugia. These findings suggest that well‑managed community forests can complement protected areas by maintaining intermediate disturbance and provide a spatially explicit roadmap for assisted colonization into the mid‑elevation zones. Supplementary Material File (kunwar_2026.docx) Download 62.20 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 07 April 2026 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords ecological experiment ecosystem plants population ecology terrestrial Authors Affiliations Ripu Kunwar 0000-0002-9303-0932 Gandaki University View all articles by this author Satyam Chaudhari 0000-0002-4450-9445 [email protected] Tribhuvan University View all articles by this author Shreehari Bhattarai 0000-0002-7926-4011 Agriculture and Forestry University View all articles by this author Binaya Adhikari 0000-0002-1777-5879 IOF View all articles by this author Babita Khadka Tribhuvan University View all articles by this author Gokarna Thapa WWF Nepal View all articles by this author Ananta Bhandari WWF Nepal View all articles by this author Man Bhatt Tribhuvan University View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 162 views 78 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Ripu Kunwar, Satyam Chaudhari, Shreehari Bhattarai, et al. Predicting the habitat suitability for endangered tree species Pterocarpus marsupium in Nepal, using ensemble species distribution models. Authorea . 07 April 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.177554214.43558193/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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