Research on the Coordinated Development of Water Resources-Economy-Ecology Coupling in Shanxi Province based on System Dynamics

Research on the Coordinated Development of Water Resources-Economy-Ecology Coupling in Shanxi Province based on System Dynamics | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Research on the Coordinated Development of Water Resources-Economy-Ecology Coupling in Shanxi Province based on System Dynamics Aili Wang, Shuaitao Liang, Shunsheng Wang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5126349/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Mar, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The interaction between water resources, economy, and ecology significantly influences regional security and stability. This study developed an index system for assessing the coupling of water resources, economy, and ecology in Shanxi Province. Subsequently, a coupling coordination degree model for water resources, economy, and ecology was established to assess and analyze the coupling coordination levels. Additionally, the study employed a grey correlation analysis to investigate the impact of 21 indicators on the system's coupling coordination. A system dynamics simulation model was then constructed to forecast various coupling coordination scenarios up to 2035. Key findings included: (1) An overall upward trend in the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources, economy, and ecology. (2) Significant developmental disparities among the eleven cities in Shanxi Province, with some cities showing a decline in 2015. (3) The economic subsystem indicators in the water resources–economy–ecology model had a 34.02% correlation, exerting a marginally greater impact on the system's coupling coordination than other subsystems, with GDP per capita being the most influential indicator. (4) Scenario simulations predict that the highest level of coupling coordination, reaching a coupling coordination degree of 0.94, will be achieved in 2035 under Scenario 5(pursuing comprehensive development). The findings offer theoretical backing for shaping the future developmental trajectory of Shanxi Province. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact coupling coordination degree grey correlation comprehensive evaluation index system dynamics Shanxi Province Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supplementarydocument.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Mar, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 05 Nov, 2024 Reviews received at journal 27 Oct, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Oct, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Oct, 2024 Reviews received at journal 15 Oct, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Oct, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 14 Oct, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 14 Oct, 2024 Editor invited by journal 08 Oct, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 08 Oct, 2024 First submitted to journal 20 Sep, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5126349","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":374170492,"identity":"f0641b81-4fca-4401-835e-a3d2d70a4eb8","order_by":0,"name":"Aili Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Aili","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":374170493,"identity":"7c98e011-c852-44c2-b868-19aa7916ed3d","order_by":1,"name":"Shuaitao Liang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shuaitao","middleName":"","lastName":"Liang","suffix":""},{"id":374170494,"identity":"dcbc6543-0e0b-4813-9551-048fbfad460b","order_by":2,"name":"Shunsheng Wang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABEElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLACxgYgIQFiVUjI8TMzH35AgpYzNsaS7WxpBsRrYWxJS9xwnkdBAp9qg+NnD7/8ueNwnvzs5mMPvzYcTtx8mIfBgKHGJhqnljN5ada8Zw4XG9w5lm4su+Ow8bbDvAceMBxLy23AocXsQI6ZMWPb4cQNEjlm0pJnDstuO8yXYMDYcBi3lvNvzAx/ArXMn5H/TVqy7TDj5mYeAwm8Wm7kGD/gBWppuJHDJvmxLU1xAzMBLfY33pgx87alJ264kWYmDQpkicPAQE7A4xfJ/hzjjz/brIEOS34m+QMUlf2HDz/4UGODUwsQsMFjgZkHxkrArRys8AOMxfgDv8pRMApGwSgYoQAAj4BktldsbZsAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shunsheng","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-09-21 03:08:38","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5126349/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5126349/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81796-y","type":"published","date":"2025-03-02T15:57:59+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":77622887,"identity":"1bfef812-00f1-40fb-b78b-4f6d911e0ad6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-03-03 16:10:50","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":865011,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"PaperShanxiProvince.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5126349/v1_covered_c2a40b67-bb17-4bea-8d63-4fcbb42961ae.pdf"},{"id":69332101,"identity":"edb0c39e-65db-4b1f-bc78-74dc98780962","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-11-19 09:22:42","extension":"xlsx","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":76187,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Supplementarydocument.xlsx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5126349/v1/641186763aa9daeb2adc83ba.xlsx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Research on the Coordinated Development of Water Resources-Economy-Ecology Coupling in Shanxi Province based on System Dynamics","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"coupling coordination degree, grey correlation, comprehensive evaluation index, system dynamics, Shanxi Province","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5126349/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5126349/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe interaction between water resources, economy, and ecology significantly influences regional security and stability. This study developed an index system for assessing the coupling of water resources, economy, and ecology in Shanxi Province. Subsequently, a coupling coordination degree model for water resources, economy, and ecology was established to assess and analyze the coupling coordination levels. Additionally, the study employed a grey correlation analysis to investigate the impact of 21 indicators on the system's coupling coordination. A system dynamics simulation model was then constructed to forecast various coupling coordination scenarios up to 2035. Key findings included: (1) An overall upward trend in the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources, economy, and ecology. (2) Significant developmental disparities among the eleven cities in Shanxi Province, with some cities showing a decline in 2015. 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