Spread and Seasonality of COVID-19 Pandemic Confirmed Cases in sub-Saharan Africa: Experience from Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda

Spread and Seasonality of COVID-19 Pandemic Confirmed Cases in sub-Saharan Africa: Experience from Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Spread and Seasonality of COVID-19 Pandemic Confirmed Cases in sub-Saharan Africa: Experience from Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda Ayo S. Adebowale, Rotimi F. Afolabi, Segun Bello, Mobolaji M. Salawu, and 19 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2310046/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 29 Mar, 2023 Read the published version in BMC Infectious Diseases → Version 1 posted 8 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the world negatively with huge health and socioeconomic consequences. This study estimated the seasonality, trajectory, and projection of COVID-19 cases to understand the dynamics of the disease spread and inform response interventions. Method: Descriptive analysis of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 2020 to 12th March 2022 was conducted in four purposefully selected sub-Saharan African countries (Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Senegal, and Uganda). We extrapolated the COVID-19 data from (2020 to 2022) to 2023 using trigonometric time series model. A decomposition time series method was used to examine the seasonality in the data. Results: Nigeria had the highest rate of spread (β) of COVID-19 (β=381.2) while DRC had the least rate (β=119.4). DRC, Uganda, and Senegal had a similar pattern of COVID-19 spread from the onset through December, 2020. The average doubling time in COVID-19 case-count was highest in Uganda (148 days) and least in Nigeria (83 days). A seasonal variation was found in the COVID-19 data for all the four countries but the timing of the cases showed some variations across countries. More cases are expected in the 1st (January-March) and 3rd (July-September) quarters of the year in Nigeria and Senegal, and in the 2nd (April-June) and 3rd (October-December) quarters in DRC and Uganda. Conclusion: Our findings show a seasonality which may warrant a consideration for COVID-19 periodic interventions in the peak seasons in the preparedness and response strategies. COVID-19 Trigonometric model Mathematical projection Sub-Saharan Africa Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Tables 1-5 is available in the Supplementary Files section. Supplementary Files 3.Table.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 29 Mar, 2023 Read the published version in BMC Infectious Diseases → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major revision 14 Feb, 2023 Reviews received at journal 12 Feb, 2023 Reviewers agreed at journal 08 Feb, 2023 Reviewers invited by journal 07 Feb, 2023 Editor assigned by journal 06 Feb, 2023 Editor invited by journal 12 Dec, 2022 Submission checks completed at journal 12 Dec, 2022 First submitted to journal 24 Nov, 2022 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-2310046","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":159323601,"identity":"c709805b-39b2-4667-99b1-23feccb52200","order_by":0,"name":"Ayo S. 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https://www.populationpyramid.net/uganda/2022/\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"F1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2310046/v1/9d4e9e8a1e3080954e5b6d36.png"},{"id":30325449,"identity":"034bf76d-6424-4e3b-9ece-2318b11f7b5c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-12-14 15:40:48","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":25774,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eCumulative daily Cases of COVID-19 in DRC, Nigeria, Senegal and Uganda\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"F2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2310046/v1/e1e9c4738fc0ab1313f6de4f.png"},{"id":30325451,"identity":"eb41c372-6f13-4347-9ccf-81bc585272d4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-12-14 15:40:48","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":73796,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eDistribution of Doubling Time against Doubled Case Counts in DRC, Nigeria, Senegal and Uganda\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"F3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2310046/v1/acbe0794aa4fd4d5eb7a9783.png"},{"id":30325454,"identity":"ff4f08fd-8bb7-4490-94c9-24ebca796fd1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-12-14 15:40:48","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":76360,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003ePeriodogram and spectra analysis of COVID-19 data in DRC, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"F4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2310046/v1/48a6068dcc188c25ffd488f9.png"},{"id":30326457,"identity":"2020043e-be60-4e49-90c5-e067be4513d5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-12-14 15:48:48","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":56808,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eTrend and Trigonometrical modeling of COVID-19 data in CDR, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"F5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2310046/v1/f2bd5aae833d1a2d9ddc545c.png"},{"id":44724104,"identity":"c59d0c65-4f47-4431-b856-1c34b63b7408","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2023-10-16 20:24:16","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":607964,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"1.COVID19SpreadandSeasonalitymanuscript231122bmcINFECTIOUSDXSUBMITTED.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2310046/v1_covered_d6ebe1a3-94bb-491e-bb50-0e53582dfc77.pdf"},{"id":30325452,"identity":"56b46b65-ae4d-42cc-a274-41f9c6910345","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-12-14 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Uganda","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bmc-infectious-diseases","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"infd","sideBox":"Learn more about [BMC Infectious Diseases](http://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/infd","title":"BMC Infectious Diseases","twitterHandle":"#bmcinfectdis","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"COVID-19, Trigonometric model, Mathematical projection, Sub-Saharan Africa","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-2310046/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2310046/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eBackground: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the world negatively with huge health and socioeconomic consequences. This study estimated the seasonality, trajectory, and projection of COVID-19 cases to understand the dynamics of the disease spread and inform response interventions.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMethod: Descriptive analysis of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 2020 to 12th March 2022 was conducted in four purposefully selected sub-Saharan African countries (Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Senegal, and Uganda). We extrapolated the COVID-19 data from (2020 to 2022) to 2023 using trigonometric time series model. A decomposition time series method was used to examine the seasonality in the data.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eResults: Nigeria had the highest rate of spread (β) of COVID-19 (β=381.2) while DRC had the least rate (β=119.4). DRC, Uganda, and Senegal had a similar pattern of COVID-19 spread from the onset through December, 2020. The average doubling time in COVID-19 case-count was highest in Uganda (148 days) and least in Nigeria (83 days). A seasonal variation was found in the COVID-19 data for all the four countries but the timing of the cases showed some variations across countries. More cases are expected in the 1st (January-March) and 3rd (July-September) quarters of the year in Nigeria and Senegal, and in the 2nd (April-June) and 3rd (October-December) quarters in DRC and Uganda.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eConclusion: Our findings show a seasonality which may warrant a consideration for COVID-19 periodic interventions in the peak seasons in the preparedness and response strategies.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Spread and Seasonality of COVID-19 Pandemic Confirmed Cases in sub-Saharan Africa: Experience from Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2022-12-14 15:40:43","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-2310046/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Major revision","date":"2023-02-14T11:32:18+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2023-02-12T11:07:00+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"01d61eac-033a-42d7-997f-9ef125884239","date":"2023-02-08T11:30:28+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2023-02-07T12:14:43+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2023-02-06T14:44:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2022-12-12T08:59:46+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2022-12-12T08:54:58+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"BMC Infectious Diseases","date":"2022-11-24T16:58:52+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bmc-infectious-diseases","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"infd","sideBox":"Learn more about [BMC Infectious Diseases](http://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/infd","title":"BMC Infectious Diseases","twitterHandle":"#bmcinfectdis","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"344bef7c-f0a2-478b-8278-edf05458431a","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 14th, 2022","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2023-10-16T20:21:41+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-2310046","link":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-023-08168-1","journal":{"identity":"bmc-infectious-diseases","isVorOnly":false,"title":"BMC Infectious Diseases"},"publishedOn":"2023-03-29 20:15:18","publishedOnDateReadable":"March 29th, 2023"},"versionCreatedAt":"2022-12-14 15:40:43","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1186/s12879-023-08168-1","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-023-08168-1","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-2310046","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-2310046","identity":"rs-2310046","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"_2-kVJe1T_tPrBINL-cwx","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}