Multidecadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to Europe in early-winter and implications for seasonal forecasting

Multidecadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to Europe in early-winter and implications for seasonal forecasting | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Multidecadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to Europe in early-winter and implications for seasonal forecasting Pablo Fernández-Castillo, Teresa Losada, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5851282/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 18 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 2 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract The impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic and European sector (NAE) climate are season-dependent and, in some cases, not linear and/or not stationary. Previous studies have found multidecadal variability in ENSO teleconnections to NAE in certain seasons, relating it to changes in the background state. However, the stationarity of the teleconnection and its surface impacts in Europe during early winter remain largely unexplored, a gap intended to be addressed in this study. The observational analysis reveals changes in the teleconnection impacts and mechanisms over recent decades. These changes have strong implications for the assessment of seasonal predictability, hence the performance of the SEAS5 seasonal prediction model is analysed. While SEAS5 does not accurately capture the observed non-stationarity, it displays pronounced multidecadal changes in forecast skill. This implies the emergence of windows of opportunity for seasonal forecasting, where predictability may be higher than initially expected. ENSO teleconnection Europe early-winter North Atlantic seasonal predictability SEAS5 nonstationary PDO Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementarymaterialENSOearlywinterrev1.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 18 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 2 posted Editorial decision: Accepted 30 Jun, 2025 Reviews received at journal 30 Jun, 2025 Reviews received at journal 25 Jun, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 20 Jun, 2025 Reviews received at journal 19 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Jun, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 17 Jun, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 17 Jun, 2025 First submitted to journal 04 Jun, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5851282","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":476321847,"identity":"7320f955-51c2-11f0-91e4-06cc9d20a69f","order_by":0,"name":"Pablo 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