A prediction of the paths to equalization of basic public health services based on Gragh Neural Network(GNN)

The contradiction between supply and demand of China's health resources has become increasingly prominent under the strategic requirement of “High-quality public health development”. Especially in the context of accelerated population aging and changes in the disease spectrum, chronic diseases and other health issues are increasingly concerned. The government, as the main supplier, have to solve the outstanding conflicts of imbalance in resource allocation in the region. Our study aims to analyze inequalities in the utilization behavior of basic public health services for chronic diseases, to explore the influence of both supply and demand elements, and to assess whether the balanced allocation of resources at different levels within a region can contribute to equalization of basic public health services. This study collected the health insurance swipe records of diabetic patients in S city, and visualizes the supply and demand of medical resources on a map. Secondly, we construct a heterogeneous graph neural network(GNN) of hospital-patient medical resource utilization to explore the combinatorial effects of unequal utilization. Finally, we predict the changes in patients' behavior after two supply optimization means of improving the service quality of primary care institutions and sinking of high-quality medical resources. The analysis shows that the utilization of regional healthcare resources is also influenced by the center-edge supply structure, and the concentration of high-quality resources in urban centers not only squeezes the utilization space of primary hospitals, but also causes difficulties in access to high-quality resources for patients in shortage areas, which results in an unreasonable trend of patient mobility. We predict that a balanced allocation of medical resources at all levels in the region will significantly reduce the need for chronic disease patients to seek high-quality medical resources over long distances, but the siphoning effect of regional medical centers still remains. The policy should further continue to increase the investment in primary health institutions while improving the radiation range of regional medical centers, and establish “close medical associations” to achieve equalization of basic public health services.