Adapting analogue forecasting to compare ENSO remote influences across different models and regions

Adapting analogue forecasting to compare ENSO remote influences across different models and regions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Adapting analogue forecasting to compare ENSO remote influences across different models and regions Jemma Jeffree, Nicola Maher, Dillon Amaya, Dietmar Dommenget This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8235167/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an tropical Pacific phenomenon influenced by climate anomalies in other regions of the world. We compare the relative impacts of regions external to the tropical Pacific on ENSO with a new unifying multi-model framework. This framework adapts analogue forecasting to identify the improvement in ENSO forecast skill when including information from regions outside the equatorial Pacific. We use this methodology to investigate the relative influence on ENSO of each of the tropical Atlantic, tropical Indian, and north and south tropical Pacific Oceans, as simulated by 12 state-of-the-art coupled climate models. In most models, ENSO forecast skill is improved by information from ocean regions external to the equatorial Pacific, implying that these regions contain independent variability that impacts ENSO evolution. Overall, the largest skill increases come from information in the Atlantic Ocean, followed by the Indian, south Pacific, then north Pacific Oceans. The influence on ENSO of these four ocean regions peaks between 6-18 months lead time. However, the magnitude of skill increase depends on the specific model, lead time and forecast initialisation month. We find almost no skill increase from information in any region poleward of 30°. Finally, we note that the GFDL-CM2.1 model used for many pacemaker studies exhibits the weakest remote influences on ENSO of any model we consider. Our results, and this method which may be applied to other models, lay the groundwork for contextualising and comparing studies of remote influences on ENSO in individual climate models. Full Text Supplementary Files supplementary.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Minor Revision 10 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 08 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 06 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 03 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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