Impact of Lumpy Skin Disease in India: Socio-behavioural Analysis, Epidemiology and Economics

Abstract The outbreak of animal diseases has both explicit and implicit economic repercussions. In the present study, a simple mathematical model has been developed to estimate the economic impact of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) in India along with socio-behavioral factors and epidemiological metrics. The econometrics is based on all the direct and indirect losses and expenditures incurred during the entire course of disease in a dairy farm specifically considering production losses, reproduction losses, treatment costs, preventive costs and other costs. Primary data were collected from 100 dairy farms located in Indian state of Punjab in which LSD outbreak occurred. Based on the results, the economic impact of the disease was extrapolated for the total bovines effected due to the disease in the LSD outbreak occurred in India from July, 2022 to October, 2022. Results revealed 45.25 percent morbidity in cattle, 0.19 percent in buffaloes and 27.04 in pooled sample of bovines with 12.40 percent mortality in cattle. A net economic loss of INR 1135.26 crores (USD 137.26 million) in Punjab and INR 18337.76 crores (USD 2217.26 million) in India was estimated due to LSD outbreak in bovines. The modelling approach along with socio-behavioural analysis and epidemiology provided an evidence of coherence among the prevailing factors and aided to estimate economic impact precisely.