Temporal trends and shifts of 24 notifiable infectious diseases in China before and during the COVID-19 epidemic

Abstract The COVID-19 epidemic and the subsequent implementation of public health and social measures (PHSMs) have markedly reshaped the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. In this study, we analyzed the impact of PHSMs on 24 notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs) in mainland China and utilized multiple time series models to forecast transmission trends under hypothetical scenarios without PHSMs or epidemic. Our findings revealed distinct seasonal patterns in the incidence of different NIDs categories. Among these categories, respiratory infectious diseases exhibited the most substantial response to PHSMs, while bloodborne and sexually transmitted diseases demonstrated more moderate effects. Furthermore, we identified 8 NIDs, including hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), dengue fever, malaria, pertussis, scarlet fever, mumps, and rubella, as being highly susceptible to the impact of PHSMs. PHSMs, such as travel restrictions, played a crucial role in mitigating the transmission of zoonotic diseases such as dengue fever and malaria. Interestingly, the easing of PHSMs did not lead to a notable resurgence in NIDs, likely due to the continued practice of self-isolation. Our findings highlight the varied impact of PHSMs on different infectious diseases and emphasize the need for developing sustainable, long-term strategies, such as vaccine development, for their prevention and control.