Extension of synthetic panels and the multilevel model to study the dynamics and factors of variation in primary learners performance

Abstract Recent studies show that the skills developed by learners are the result of many factors linked to the learner, the education system or external conditions. The approach generally used is macroeconomic, comparing the level of learners based on the characteristics of school systems and subtracting the temporal evaluation of performance. Thus, determining the elements contributing to changes in reading in mathematics is of public utility importance. In this study, we use the multilevel model and synthetic panel construction for hierarchical data to determine the explanatory factors for skills at the start and end of primary school. Using research data from the PASEC project conducted in 2014 and 2019 for the Grade 2 and Grade 6 levels of education, we use two-level hierarchical linear models and synthetic panel construction to study the temporal dynamics and explanatory factors impacting performance. We obtain from the synthetic panel model that learners' performance in reading increased slightly in 2019, from 62.44% and 63.33%. In math, on the other hand, performance subsequently balanced out, rising to 85.74% and 50.16% in math and reading respectively. In addition, factors such as Gender, Like to read and Understand your teacher had a negative impact on performance in French, while the variables Electricity available, Eat lunch and Country area had a positive impact on performance. The impact of these results on the challenges of improving the education system is discussed. This study clearly shows that performance has not improved significantly, and that mathematics performance has regressed. It therefore suggests that training needs to be reviewed, starting with the factors that have a negative impact on competence, such as the gender effect and the availability of resources at home. It also calls for parents to be involved in early childhood education.