Storms regulate Southern Ocean summer warming

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Abstract

Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Southern Ocean is the fingerprint of ocean heat uptake 1,2 and critical for air-sea interactions. However, Southern Ocean SST is biased warm in climate models, reflecting our limited understanding of the mechanisms that set its magnitude and variability 3,4 . An important factor driving SST variability is synoptic-scale weather systems, such as storms 3,5 , yet their impacts are difficult to directly observe. Using in-situ observations from underwater and surface robotic vehicles in the subpolar Southern Ocean, we show evidence that storms regulate the summer evolution of SST through altering the mixed layer effective heat capacity and entraining colder water from below. Through these mechanisms, we determine that interannual variations in Southern Ocean SST reflect changes in storm intensity and prevalence, which, in turn, are driven by the Southern Annular Mode. Our results demonstrate a causal link between storm forcing and SST variability, which has implications for addressing warming biases in climate models.
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Storms regulate Southern Ocean summer warming | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Storms regulate Southern Ocean summer warming Marcel du Plessis, Sarah-Anne Nicholson, Isabelle Giddy, Pedro Monteiro, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4803659/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 03 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Geoscience → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Southern Ocean is the fingerprint of ocean heat uptake 1,2 and critical for air-sea interactions. However, Southern Ocean SST is biased warm in climate models, reflecting our limited understanding of the mechanisms that set its magnitude and variability 3,4 . An important factor driving SST variability is synoptic-scale weather systems, such as storms 3,5 , yet their impacts are difficult to directly observe. Using in-situ observations from underwater and surface robotic vehicles in the subpolar Southern Ocean, we show evidence that storms regulate the summer evolution of SST through altering the mixed layer effective heat capacity and entraining colder water from below. Through these mechanisms, we determine that interannual variations in Southern Ocean SST reflect changes in storm intensity and prevalence, which, in turn, are driven by the Southern Annular Mode. Our results demonstrate a causal link between storm forcing and SST variability, which has implications for addressing warming biases in climate models. Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files supplinfoduplessisstormsmanuscript.pdf Supplementary Information for ”Storms regulate Southern Ocean summer warming” Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 03 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Geoscience → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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