The Impact of COVID-19 Fiscal Stimulus on the U.S. Economic Recovery

We estimate the impact of fiscal stimulus measures enacted in response to COVID-19 on U.S. GDP, investment and exports. We apply a dynamic computable general equilibrium model adept at estimating total direct and indirect effects and their time-path. Initial stimulus bills, including the CARES Act, reduced the potential decline in GDP resulting from the pandemic by 7.1 percentage points in early 2020. Later rounds were not as beneficial, largely due to crowding out of investment. Unemployment benefits provided a larger increase in GDP than direct and indirect payments to individuals, and corporate tax relief had a positive impact on growth.