Forecasting the Average Bulk Cooking Oil Prices in Indonesia Using the Chen Fuzzy Time Series Method

Cooking oil has a very important role for the community because it is used in everyday life. Indonesia has experienced a shortage of cooking oil stocks from the beginning of 2022 to March 2022, which has made cooking oil difficult to come by and its prices have skyrocketed. The occurrence of erratic fluctuations in cooking oil prices from time to time can affect the stability of cooking oil prices. This study aims to predict the price of bulk cooking oil in Indonesia by applying Chen's Fuzzy Time Series method. The data used in this study is the average price of bulk cooking oil in Indonesia for the period January 2018 to December 2022. Forecasting results obtained for the next period, namely January 2023, amounted to IDR 14,934. The measurement results of the prediction error using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) using data splitting with a ratio of 80:20 respectively 980.64 and 4.77%.