Spatiotemporal Variation of Condensed Water Path over Africa

Spatiotemporal Variation of Condensed Water Path over Africa | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Spatiotemporal Variation of Condensed Water Path over Africa Kwame Karikari Yamoah, Radka Penčevová, Patrik Benáček, Aleš Farda, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6312938/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study examines how condensed water paths (CWP) change with the seasons over Africa. This is done by comparing outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6), the CORDEX-Africa models (AFR-22 and AFR-44), and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1970 to 2005. All datasets captured the seasonal variations in condensed water paths over Africa, with some variations in magnitude among models. Datasets were also bimodal for West Africa (June-July-August and September-October-November) and Central and East Africa (March-AprilMay and September-October-November). This corresponds with the seasonal variations of precipitation, meaning more cloud condensate leaves the atmosphere as precipitation. A comparison of model outputs with the ERA5 reanalysis indicated that CMIP5 overestimated CWP while CMIP6 performed better, reproducing spatial patterns with a correlation of 0.9 - 0.94 in all seasons. The Taylor skill score further confirmed CMIP6's improved skills (greater than 0.75) in simulating the multiyear mean and condensed water path for all seasons. The CORDEX-Africa models, however, showed a lower correlation for the AFR-44 models, with a slight improvement for the AFR-22 models in representing spatial patterns. The models also showed the worst skill in simulating condensed water paths in all cases. The contrasting magnitude of CWP between GCMs and RCMs and the better consistency of GCMs with observational data raises concerns about the representativeness of this key parameter in RCMs and the widespread adoption of RCM-based scenarios for impact studies. Condensed water path CMIP5 CMIP6 AFR-22 AFR-44 seasonal variations Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6312938","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":435463466,"identity":"8e4e3383-32d3-45b5-8eaa-fcf9f5907f71","order_by":0,"name":"Kwame Karikari 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This is done by comparing outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6), the CORDEX-Africa models (AFR-22 and AFR-44), and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1970 to 2005. All datasets captured the seasonal variations in condensed water paths over Africa, with some variations in magnitude among models. Datasets were also bimodal for West Africa (June-July-August and September-October-November) and Central and East Africa (March-AprilMay and September-October-November). This corresponds with the seasonal variations of precipitation, meaning more cloud condensate leaves the atmosphere as precipitation. A comparison of model outputs with the ERA5 reanalysis indicated that CMIP5 overestimated CWP while CMIP6 performed better, reproducing spatial patterns with a correlation of 0.9 - 0.94 in all seasons. The Taylor skill score further confirmed CMIP6's improved skills (greater than 0.75) in simulating the multiyear mean and condensed water path for all seasons. The CORDEX-Africa models, however, showed a lower correlation for the AFR-44 models, with a slight improvement for the AFR-22 models in representing spatial patterns. The models also showed the worst skill in simulating condensed water paths in all cases. 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