Multi-Scenario Simulation of the Impact of Landscape Patterns on Ecosystem Services in Alpine Meadow Regions

Multi-Scenario Simulation of the Impact of Landscape Patterns on Ecosystem Services in Alpine Meadow Regions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Multi-Scenario Simulation of the Impact of Landscape Patterns on Ecosystem Services in Alpine Meadow Regions Yu-chen ZHAO, Yan-xia WU, Yuan TIAN, Qi-peng ZHANG, Qian WANG This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7591375/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Aims The alpine meadow regions are mainly located in mountainous and plateau areas, exhibiting high sensitivity to climate change and human activities. Landscape pattern changes caused by human activities have a significant impact on ecosystem services. In this paper, the Upper Yellow River of Gannan (UYRG) were taken as an example. We aimed to evaluate the impact of landscape pattern changes on ecosystem service value (ESV) in alpine meadow regions, strengthening environmental protection and formulating ecosystem management strategies. Methods We utilized the PLUS model and landscape data from 1990 to 2020 to simulate and forecast landscape pattern indices and ESV for 2030 under multiple scenarios. Results In UYRG, the primary landscape types are woodland and grassland. There are decreasing trends in the PD and AI indices, indicating a more complex and fragmented landscape structure with weakened patch aggregation. In the 2030 simulations, the landscape aggregation level is higher in the ecological protection (EP) scenario and lower in the nature development scenario. The total ESV of UYRG shows an increasing trend, rising from 34.859 million USD to 34.878 million USD. In the EP scenario, the ESV in 2030 is the highest. Additionally, a positive correlation between UYRG's ESV and COHESION is observed; as the landscape pattern becomes more dispersed, the ESV decreases, while higher aggregation leads to higher ESV within the region. Conclusions These findings reveal the impact of landscape pattern changes on ecosystem services. It can provide a theoretical foundation for formulating ecosystem management strategies in alpine meadow regions. Landscape pattern indices Ecosystem services value PLUS model Alpine meadows Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7591375","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":515760384,"identity":"7cdd13a9-c4e6-41f3-913a-2b3c32ee4904","order_by":0,"name":"Yu-chen ZHAO","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yu-chen","middleName":"","lastName":"ZHAO","suffix":""},{"id":515760385,"identity":"cac03f7b-c4fd-43ae-bae8-8bf3a05cbc2f","order_by":1,"name":"Yan-xia 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Regions","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Landscape pattern indices, Ecosystem services value, PLUS model, Alpine meadows","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7591375/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7591375/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eAims\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe alpine meadow regions are mainly located in mountainous and plateau areas, exhibiting high sensitivity to climate change and human activities. Landscape pattern changes caused by human activities have a significant impact on ecosystem services. In this paper, the Upper Yellow River of Gannan (UYRG) were taken as an example. We aimed to evaluate the impact of landscape pattern changes on ecosystem service value (ESV) in alpine meadow regions, strengthening environmental protection and formulating ecosystem management strategies.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethods\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eWe utilized the PLUS model and landscape data from 1990 to 2020 to simulate and forecast landscape pattern indices and ESV for 2030 under multiple scenarios.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn UYRG, the primary landscape types are woodland and grassland. There are decreasing trends in the PD and AI indices, indicating a more complex and fragmented landscape structure with weakened patch aggregation. In the 2030 simulations, the landscape aggregation level is higher in the ecological protection (EP) scenario and lower in the nature development scenario. The total ESV of UYRG shows an increasing trend, rising from 34.859\u0026nbsp;million USD to 34.878\u0026nbsp;million USD. In the EP scenario, the ESV in 2030 is the highest. Additionally, a positive correlation between UYRG's ESV and COHESION is observed; as the landscape pattern becomes more dispersed, the ESV decreases, while higher aggregation leads to higher ESV within the region.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusions\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThese findings reveal the impact of landscape pattern changes on ecosystem services. It can provide a theoretical foundation for formulating ecosystem management strategies in alpine meadow regions.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Multi-Scenario Simulation of the Impact of Landscape Patterns on Ecosystem Services in Alpine Meadow Regions","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-24 21:32:26","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7591375/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"1b79a9f5-6a6b-4eac-9da2-80b7e910e8df","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 24th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-12-01T07:30:42+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-24 21:32:26","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7591375","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7591375","identity":"rs-7591375","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}