Monsoon Hysteresis reveals Atmospheric Memory

Monsoon Hysteresis reveals Atmospheric Memory | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Monsoon Hysteresis reveals Atmospheric Memory Anja Katzenberger, Anders Levermann This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4151424/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Within Earth’s climate system the ocean, cryosphere and vegetation exhibit hysteresis behaviour such that their state depends on their past and not merely on their current boundary conditions. The atmosphere’s fast mixing time scales were thought to inhibit the necessary memory effect for such multistability. Here we show that moisture accumulation within the atmospheric column generates hysteresis in monsoon circulation independent of oceanic heat storage and yields two stable atmospheric states for the same boundary conditions. Hysteresis is shown in observational data, reproduced in a general circulation model where it increases with decreasing oceanic memory and then reproduced in a mathematical formulation of the moisture-advection feedback. Thus moisture accumulation can generate bistability through an atmospheric memory that carries information across time scales much longer than those typical for mixing. This has implications for the future evolution of monsoon rainfall that is crucial for the agricultural productivity currently feeding more than two billion people. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4151424","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":284720636,"identity":"d451a953-1f9c-4450-a38c-36433a16b344","order_by":0,"name":"Anja Katzenberger","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4187-2377","institution":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anja","middleName":"","lastName":"Katzenberger","suffix":""},{"id":284720635,"identity":"aee44eca-bc10-4e62-a58e-fcff4b735249","order_by":1,"name":"Anders Levermann","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4432-4704","institution":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anders","middleName":"","lastName":"Levermann","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-03-22 18:05:29","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4151424/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4151424/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":60937256,"identity":"027ac394-01c4-4c8a-8c4a-e88b8ba824e2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-07-23 19:38:51","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2976253,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"MonsoonHysteresisrevealsSeasonalAtmosphericMemory1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4151424/v1_covered_bccf1070-f6fa-45f3-abad-308bb71b4656.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Monsoon Hysteresis reveals Atmospheric Memory","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4151424/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4151424/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Within Earth’s climate system the ocean, cryosphere and vegetation exhibit hysteresis behaviour such that their state depends on their past and not merely on their current boundary conditions. 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