Beyond production and consumption: Waste food recycling emerges as the systemic constraint in Iran’s circular food economy

Beyond production and consumption: Waste food recycling emerges as the systemic constraint in Iran’s circular food economy | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Beyond production and consumption: Waste food recycling emerges as the systemic constraint in Iran’s circular food economy Khadijeh Karimi, Mostafa Mardani Najafabadi, Abbas Mirzaei This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8258733/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Transitions toward a circular food economy (CFE) remain poorly understood in data-scarce developing contexts. This study presents the first subnational efficiency assessment of Iran’s CFE across 31 provinces (2017–2022), adapting the Modified Dynamic Three-Stage Circular DEA framework to provincial governance units. To address severe data limitations, key variables, including food waste, recycling rates, and GHG emissions, were reconstructed using proxy-based, literature-grounded allocation rules. Results reveal stark spatial disparities: while top-performing provinces (e.g., Khuzestan, Bushehr, Tehran) achieve full efficiency (1.0), over half score below the national mean (0.67), with northwestern and southeastern provinces lagging (< 0.5). Critically, the waste recycling stage is identified as the systemic bottleneck (mean efficiency = 0.40), driven primarily by excessive energy use and high CH₄/CO₂ emissions. Even provinces strong in production or consumption exhibit low recycling efficiency, underscoring its nationwide vulnerability. Governance entry points are highlighted, including the prioritization of decentralized composting and biogas systems, optimization of fertilizer use to reduce NH₃ leakage, and province-tailored interventions based on efficiency profiles. Beyond Iran, the methodological approach offers a transferable framework for circularity assessment under data constraints—providing actionable insights for sustainability planning in the Global South. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Circular food economy Subnational efficiency Food waste recycling Sanctions and sustainability Dynamic DEA Iran Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supplementarymaterial.rar Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8258733","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":561901795,"identity":"b22e554b-cfd4-4037-8f85-822a5d183852","order_by":0,"name":"Khadijeh Karimi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Khadijeh","middleName":"","lastName":"Karimi","suffix":""},{"id":561901801,"identity":"af4cdede-b65c-43ba-b2ad-89a9e5f05ac3","order_by":1,"name":"Mostafa Mardani 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economy","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Circular food economy, Subnational efficiency, Food waste recycling, Sanctions and sustainability, Dynamic DEA, Iran","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8258733/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8258733/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eTransitions toward a circular food economy (CFE) remain poorly understood in data-scarce developing contexts. This study presents the first subnational efficiency assessment of Iran\u0026rsquo;s CFE across 31 provinces (2017\u0026ndash;2022), adapting the Modified Dynamic Three-Stage Circular DEA framework to provincial governance units. To address severe data limitations, key variables, including food waste, recycling rates, and GHG emissions, were reconstructed using proxy-based, literature-grounded allocation rules. Results reveal stark spatial disparities: while top-performing provinces (e.g., Khuzestan, Bushehr, Tehran) achieve full efficiency (1.0), over half score below the national mean (0.67), with northwestern and southeastern provinces lagging (\u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;0.5). Critically, the waste recycling stage is identified as the systemic bottleneck (mean efficiency\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.40), driven primarily by excessive energy use and high CH₄/CO₂ emissions. Even provinces strong in production or consumption exhibit low recycling efficiency, underscoring its nationwide vulnerability. Governance entry points are highlighted, including the prioritization of decentralized composting and biogas systems, optimization of fertilizer use to reduce NH₃ leakage, and province-tailored interventions based on efficiency profiles. Beyond Iran, the methodological approach offers a transferable framework for circularity assessment under data constraints\u0026mdash;providing actionable insights for sustainability planning in the Global South.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Beyond production and consumption: Waste food recycling emerges as the systemic constraint in Iran’s circular food economy","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-19 12:37:36","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8258733/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"6da24b87-a549-400b-8a43-6cf3f6c6b9bd","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 19th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":59835315,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences"},{"id":59835316,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-13T09:39:45+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-19 12:37:36","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8258733","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8258733","identity":"rs-8258733","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}