Desert Power for the AI Era

Desert Power for the AI Era | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Desert Power for the AI Era Da Zhang, Ziheng Zhu, Runxin Yu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7314232/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The surge in generative artificial intelligence (AI) may cause growing conflicts between securing electricity supplies and achieving sustainable development goals. Here, we propose off-grid hybrid wind-solar-storage (WSS) systems, which leverage the immense renewable resources in desert areas alongside relatively low-cost fiber-optic connectivity of data centers, to address this challenge. Using a global high-resolution techno-economic optimization model, we demonstrate that well-planned WSS systems can deliver cost-effective 24/7 uninterrupted power for AI operations, despite requiring additional investment in non-IT equipment and electricity for cooling. This untapped energy supply is capable of delivering 1 PWh globally in 2030 at levelized costs of around $35/MWh, meeting the forecasted electricity demand for AI by the International Energy Agency. Even if AI electricity demand increases 10-fold, reaching 10 PWh by 2030, the unit cost increment would be less than 10%. Further uncertainty analysis shows that under extreme investment (3.0×) and cooling (2.0×) cost assumptions for data centers operating with the desert WSS systems, this 10 PWh/yr demand could still be satisfied at competitive cost levels. As a solution that can simultaneously achieve decarbonization and ecological restoration, the WSS systems could align computational and clean energy infrastructure in the AI era. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling Artificial intelligence data center desert renewable energy Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files DesertAIDCSI.pdf Desert Power for the AI Era Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7314232","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":532493780,"identity":"712984ca-6ca8-48ca-b80f-2e620d2a8edc","order_by":0,"name":"Da Zhang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCRDBxiDHwMDYAEIgYECUFmMekrUk9oBoorTIz25+9vBLmV36fv7DbQ+/7jgsz8DevE2CoeYOTi2Mc46ZG8ucS87tkUhsN5Y9c9iwgedYmQTDsWc4tTBLJJhJS7YxA7UwtgEZhxkbJHLMJBgbDuPUwiaR/g2osj6dh/8gWIt9g/wb/Fp4gGZKfmw7nMDDkNgGYiQ2SPDg1yIhkVMmzXDuuGHPjcQ2aca29OQ2nrRii4RjuLXIz0jfJvmjrFqevf/4M8mfbda2/eyHN974UINbCzgIeJAZbCBWAl4NwID+gc4YBaNgFIyCUYAMAIMyUH6J4MdjAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0790-9298","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Da","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":532493781,"identity":"cca2376f-9e49-46d8-83d8-bb4bab7f8660","order_by":1,"name":"Ziheng Zhu","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0005-6671-9426","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ziheng","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhu","suffix":""},{"id":532493782,"identity":"37546195-c6ea-4e70-bd0f-736f908d75d4","order_by":2,"name":"Runxin Yu","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8440-922X","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Runxin","middleName":"","lastName":"Yu","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-07 03:30:14","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7314232/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7314232/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":95699803,"identity":"f0b0a0ee-d0dd-4e16-8780-7557c6105fbd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 04:54:37","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":9487022,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"DesertAIDCpaper.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7314232/v1/2ac62b14f5d0fe1f87739837.pdf"},{"id":95699798,"identity":"d12cad5d-e658-48ab-b0be-0afbcf900002","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 04:54:35","extension":"json","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":4784,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"NCOMMS2561834.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7314232/v1/22b3fe06a5f35a4a3bab1f95.json"},{"id":95699805,"identity":"2f9c01e9-4675-479e-8f26-c16a78c33aea","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 04:54:38","extension":"pdf","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":9780795,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"DesertAIDCSI.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7314232/v1/9e8f9c3a685190901f24259a.pdf"},{"id":99791353,"identity":"fe715304-95c0-4e7e-847e-8f770604756c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-08 12:59:31","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":9452695,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"DesertAIDCpaper.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7314232/v1_covered_32aad3a1-2c99-4c48-bac7-3574054a05e0.pdf"},{"id":95699802,"identity":"911792a5-5b17-45da-94f8-8ad96e058c45","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 04:54:37","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":9780795,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Desert Power for the AI Era","description":"","filename":"DesertAIDCSI.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7314232/v1/11b9fec91981f491ea0cc5c0.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Desert Power for the AI Era","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Artificial intelligence, data center, desert, renewable energy","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7314232/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7314232/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The surge in generative artificial intelligence (AI) may cause growing conflicts between securing electricity supplies and achieving sustainable development goals. Here, we propose off-grid hybrid wind-solar-storage (WSS) systems, which leverage the immense renewable resources in desert areas alongside relatively low-cost fiber-optic connectivity of data centers, to address this challenge. Using a global high-resolution techno-economic optimization model, we demonstrate that well-planned WSS systems can deliver cost-effective 24/7 uninterrupted power for AI operations, despite requiring additional investment in non-IT equipment and electricity for cooling. This untapped energy supply is capable of delivering 1 PWh globally in 2030 at levelized costs of around $35/MWh, meeting the forecasted electricity demand for AI by the International Energy Agency. Even if AI electricity demand increases 10-fold, reaching 10 PWh by 2030, the unit cost increment would be less than 10%. Further uncertainty analysis shows that under extreme investment (3.0×) and cooling (2.0×) cost assumptions for data centers operating with the desert WSS systems, this 10 PWh/yr demand could still be satisfied at competitive cost levels. As a solution that can simultaneously achieve decarbonization and ecological restoration, the WSS systems could align computational and clean energy infrastructure in the AI era.","manuscriptTitle":"Desert Power for the AI Era","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-11-12 04:54:13","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7314232/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"236fdd0e-5564-4517-9d20-e2b577ba58d0","owner":[],"postedDate":"November 12th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":56603898,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society"},{"id":56603899,"name":"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-05T16:50:58+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-11-12 04:54:13","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7314232","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7314232","identity":"rs-7314232","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}