Deciphering the impact of AI on EU’s Net-Zero Ambition

Deciphering the impact of AI on EU’s Net-Zero Ambition | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Deciphering the impact of AI on EU’s Net-Zero Ambition Vassilis Charitopoulos, Mohammad Hemmati, Gbemi Oluleye This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7601216/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The unprecedented expansion of AI is adding unaccounted electricity demand to Europe’s power system. While incumbent plans pursue a net-zero future by 2050, they largely fail to consider the implications of large-scale AI facilities. In this study, a spatially explicit optimization model is developed to assess how AI may reshape energy infrastructure investment, emissions trajectories, and electricity prices across four AI demand growth scenarios. Results indicate that moderate AI growth can be accommodated with limited deviation from existing plans. However, in higher growth cases, emissions exceed the baseline by 49-79% between 2040-2050, leading to 3–7 year delays in meeting 2040 emissions targets. A decarbonized supply to AI demand, requires up to 2,000 GW of additional wind and solar capacity. With gas capacity projected to rise across all AI scenarios, especially in the final decade, the EU risks undermining its carbon-neutral goals unless policies adapt to its accelerating digital transformation. Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy infrastructure Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling Physical sciences/Engineering/Chemical engineering Artificial intelligence (AI) AI factories Net-zero Whole Systems Optimization Energy mix Cross-border energy exchange Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementalMaterial.pdf Supplemental information on Deciphering the Impact of AI on the EU’s Net-Zero Ambition Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7601216","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":517478401,"identity":"d1493f8a-cf51-4535-9f81-ed7d1829fc40","order_by":0,"name":"Vassilis Charitopoulos","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABAklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACNiCWgDAfMDDIMTAwN4A5EgS0QOQTGBiMGRgYidLCANeS2EBIi8EB5mcPfu6xqOOXbj4mkVBRl77h+MEGhh81DIkzG3BpYTM37HkmISE551iaRMKZw7kbziQ2MPYcY0icjcMWyQYeNgmeAxISBjdyzCQS2w7kbrgBdBhvA0PiPDxaJP8gtNSlGwC1MP7Fo4WfgYdNGskW5gSQFmaQLbgcxs/MZiYtc0BCcuacY8kWQL8YzgT65bDMMQljXN5nY29+JvnmQB0/MMQO3vhQUSfPd/zwwYdvamxkZxzAYQ0zjIEcDQfwRiQcEKNmFIyCUTAKRiYAAPfTVNitIArTAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9051-917X","institution":"University College London","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Vassilis","middleName":"","lastName":"Charitopoulos","suffix":""},{"id":517478402,"identity":"9f36f05f-31ab-4e33-aecb-7f4c38251cae","order_by":1,"name":"Mohammad Hemmati","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University College London","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mohammad","middleName":"","lastName":"Hemmati","suffix":""},{"id":517478403,"identity":"ac0c45f5-58eb-45ad-98ad-a3595abb7d99","order_by":2,"name":"Gbemi Oluleye","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Imperial College London","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gbemi","middleName":"","lastName":"Oluleye","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-09-12 13:46:52","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7601216/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7601216/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":92129414,"identity":"6df83948-334e-4456-879f-e0a57c62916f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 02:35:24","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1355614,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"Article.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7601216/v1_covered_b13b19f8-e8b5-4e0f-b5a3-2c2ea1a69596.pdf"},{"id":92129266,"identity":"87bdc8c9-23b1-491f-adc3-f2d9ae13456a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 02:27:22","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":4267994,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplemental information on Deciphering the Impact of AI on the EU\u0026#x2019;s Net-Zero Ambition","description":"","filename":"SupplementalMaterial.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7601216/v1/d7521a68e22f82e44f26b949.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Deciphering the impact of AI on EU’s Net-Zero Ambition","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Artificial intelligence (AI), AI factories, Net-zero, Whole Systems Optimization, Energy mix, Cross-border energy exchange","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7601216/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7601216/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The unprecedented expansion of AI is adding unaccounted electricity demand to Europe’s power system. 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