When good mutations go bad: how population size can change the direction of natural selection

ABSTRACT Classical evolutionary theory holds that the efficiency, but not the direction, of natural selection depends on population size. In small populations, drift overwhelms selection, rendering all fitness-affecting mutations selectively neutral. Yet, beneficial mutations never become deleterious and deleterious mutations never become beneficial. Remarkably, several mutations, including in modifiers of recombination and mutation rate, have now been shown to be favored at some population sizes but disfavored at others, challenging established theory. Previously, we have designated this phenomenon sign inversion. Here we show that, unlike selected mutations in the classical framework, mutations susceptible to sign inversion confer both fitness costs and fitness benefits, that vary among their carriers. Furthermore, all such mutations can be classified based on whether their effects differ between or within mutant lineages. Using computer simulations, we demonstrate that both between-lineage and within-lineage variability can cause sign inversion and elucidate the common underlying mechanism. Our results confirm that variability in the sign of selective effects is necessary for sign inversion, which occurs because drift overwhelms selection on carriers bearing the cost and carriers enjoying the benefit at different population sizes.