A novel predictive mathematical model for COVID-19 pandemic with quarantine, contagion dynamics, and environmentally mediated transmission

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Abstract

ABSTRACT This work presents an ODE model for COVID-19 named SINDROME that incorporates quarantine, contagion dynamics, and environmentally mediated transmission based on the compartments. The SINDROME model introduces a new parameter that allows environmentally mediated transmission, moving quarantined individuals to the infected compartment. We developed a gray box model with the SINDROME, and fit over 169 regions.

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europepmc
last seen: 2026-05-19T01:45:01.086888+00:00
unpaywall
last seen: 2026-05-21T05:10:58.409756+00:00
License: CC-BY-NC-ND-4.0