Past, present, and future heat-related mortality in Germany

Past, present, and future heat-related mortality in Germany | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Biological Sciences - Article Past, present, and future heat-related mortality in Germany Junyu Wang, Nikolaos Nikolaou, Matthias an der Heiden, Christopher Irrgang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3920808/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Oct, 2024 Read the published version in Communications Medicine → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Heat has become a leading cause of preventable deaths during summer. Understanding the link between high temperatures and excess mortality is crucial for designing effective prevention and adaptation plans. Yet, data analyses are challenging due to non-linear heat-mortality dynamics and oftentimes fragmented data archives over different agglomeration levels. We introduced a multi-scale machine learning model to estimate heat-related mortality with variable temporal and spatial resolution. This approach allows to estimate heat-related mortality at different scales, such as regional heat risk during a specific heatwave, annual and nation-wide heat risk, or future heat risk under climate change. Using Germany as a case study, we calculated heat-related excess mortality rates at the district level and visualized local health risks during a selected heatwave. Overall, we estimated 48,000 heat-related deaths in Germany during the last decade (2014-2023), whereof most cases can be attributed to individual heatwaves. In 2023, the heatwave of July 7--14 contributed approximately 1,100 cases (28%) to a total of approximately 3,900 heat-related deaths of the whole year. Combining our model with shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) of future climate change provides evidence that heat-related mortality in Germany could further increase by a factor of 2.5 (SSP245) to 9 (SSP370) without adaptation to the extreme heat. Our approach is a valuable tool for climate-driven public health strategies, aiding in the identification of local risks during heatwaves and long-term resilience planning. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health Health sciences/Health care/Public health Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementaryheatmortality.pdf Supplementary Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Oct, 2024 Read the published version in Communications Medicine → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3920808","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Biological Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":270702216,"identity":"15b090da-0479-4ab1-b17a-e8b929c9523c","order_by":0,"name":"Junyu Wang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAp0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLACiQoGAzYGBgNStJwhWQtjG1g5kVoMjp89/MJy3j1jPgbmjQ+I03ImL81CcluxGRsDWzFx1pgdyDEzkNyWYMPGwGMmQZyW82+AWuaAtZj/IE7LjRzjB5INCWYgW4jSwWB/440Zg8SxBGM2ZrZi4hwm2Z9j/FmiJsFwfnvzxg/EWcPAwCYNNp2ZWPUgtR+JNn0UjIJRMApGJgAANEwn3aeh5HYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9525-5281","institution":"Robert Koch Institute","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Junyu","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":270702217,"identity":"11300294-a12a-4c61-b214-9ba84256c9a7","order_by":1,"name":"Nikolaos Nikolaou","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Helmholtz Zentrum Munich","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nikolaos","middleName":"","lastName":"Nikolaou","suffix":""},{"id":270702218,"identity":"ef0a9ce3-533c-48ed-afde-753f9831a4ea","order_by":2,"name":"Matthias an der Heiden","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Robert Koch Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Matthias","middleName":"an der","lastName":"Heiden","suffix":""},{"id":270702219,"identity":"77575ad1-76e7-4cf7-90d9-c9fdb899496e","order_by":3,"name":"Christopher Irrgang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Robert Koch Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Christopher","middleName":"","lastName":"Irrgang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-02-02 12:15:56","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3920808/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3920808/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-024-00643-3","type":"published","date":"2024-10-21T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":67184746,"identity":"58df04a3-307f-40b4-b39f-e0d8117b10c3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-22 07:08:24","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2404456,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"HeatMortalitywangsubmission.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3920808/v1_covered_030ad153-7d28-4b6e-ac20-2ef35eacf4c6.pdf"},{"id":50892941,"identity":"9a8c727b-4d9f-4b0c-909b-8f0b4799b24f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-02-09 05:22:34","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":671935,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary","description":"","filename":"Supplementaryheatmortality.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3920808/v1/775bb49b5b7903f3234d8210.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Past, present, and future heat-related mortality in Germany","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3920808/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3920808/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Heat has become a leading cause of preventable deaths during summer. 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