REGIONAL DETERMINANTS OF THE EXPANSION OF COVID-19 IN BRAZIL

ABSTRACT Objective This study investigates the regional differences in the occurrence of COVID-19 in Brazil and its relationship with climatic and demographic factors by use data from February 26 to April 04, 2020. Methods: A Polynomial Regression Model with cubic adjustments of the number of days of contagion, demographic density, city population and climatic factors was designed and used to explain the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil. Main results It was evidenced that temperature variation maintains a relationship with the reduction in the number of cases of COVID-19. A variation -3.4% in the number of COVID-19 cases was found for each increase of 1 ° C. Conclusion There are evidences that the temperature, has a relative effect in the variation in the number of COVID-19’s researched cases. For the reason, it recommends this relationship deserves to be investigated in other tests with more extended time series, wide and with especially non-linear data adjustments.