Changepoint Analyses Confirms Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency Decline

Changepoint Analyses Confirms Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency Decline | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Changepoint Analyses Confirms Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency Decline Michael Wehner, Thomas Fisher, Norou Diawara, Robert Lund This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9013460/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Changes in tropical cyclone frequencies as the climate warms is a topic of significant current debate [1, 2]. There is no accepted theory of how tropical cyclogenesis might respond to a warmer ocean-atmosphere system as multiple controlling factors exist [3–7]. Anthropogenic warming of surface ocean temperatures due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations [8] increases the potential for tropical cyclogenesis [9–11]; however, realized cyclogenesis also requires an initial local disturbance [12–16] to develop. Most multi-decadal tropical cyclone permitting climate models (i.e. resolutions of 15-50km) exhibit frequency decreases in warmer climates, despite the increase in tropical cyclogenesis potential [17–25]. In this paper, we analyze the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, IBTrACS, [26] and the HURSAT-B1 [27] observed tropical storm data with mean shift changepoint and regression methods. Summarizing all of our analyses, we find that the global frequency of tropical cyclones with lifetime maximum sustained winds of 63km/hour or greater having a duration of more than two days (over all storm strengths) has at least very likely decreased. From the IBTrACS dataset, we also find at the global scale that it is extremely likely that the proportion of tropical cyclones that reach Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale has increased and that it is virtually certain that both the proportion and frequency of Category 4+ storms has increased. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Attribution Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9013460","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":603423105,"identity":"d0a8b819-23af-44c1-a9a0-9cf76774078d","order_by":0,"name":"Michael Wehner","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAvklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDAC5gMMzCCan52H8QBxWtgSIFokm3kYSNRicJhYLbptPIaPC3fY5Bsf5j1wgOGXTWIDIS1mx3iMjWeeSbPcdpgv4QBjXxoRWu73bpPmbTtsYHaYx+AAY89hY4IOMzvGu/03b9t/A+NmErRsY+ZtO2BgwAzUwvDjsBwRWvg/Ax2WbCAB8ktiQxoxWtgSP/O22Rnwt/cefPDhjw0PQS2oILGNRA1A8Id0LaNgFIyCUTD8AQBijzwihap9oQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5991-0082","institution":"Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Michael","middleName":"","lastName":"Wehner","suffix":""},{"id":603423107,"identity":"0b99b17f-931d-4288-bd92-20253b6ea6fd","order_by":1,"name":"Thomas Fisher","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Miami University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Thomas","middleName":"","lastName":"Fisher","suffix":""},{"id":603423108,"identity":"dfa17448-dd97-405a-9c3c-8ca823ccfdf1","order_by":2,"name":"Norou Diawara","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Old Dominion University,","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Norou","middleName":"","lastName":"Diawara","suffix":""},{"id":603423110,"identity":"dde3a80a-9b41-4ab0-8795-b10b929afaae","order_by":3,"name":"Robert Lund","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The University of California, Santa Cruz","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Robert","middleName":"","lastName":"Lund","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-02 20:05:16","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9013460/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9013460/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105567395,"identity":"8cec45d3-a1a4-459a-ac8c-789408a6de12","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-27 12:59:18","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2330943,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"TCChangePoint.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9013460/v1_covered_4b0fbe96-9cfd-47a4-932c-36328c7e6964.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Changepoint Analyses Confirms Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency Decline","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9013460/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9013460/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Changes in tropical cyclone frequencies as the climate warms is a topic of significant current debate [1, 2]. 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