A Counterfactual Analysis of the Impact of the 2008 and 2020 Crises on the Spanish Employment
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Abstract
The goal of this paper is to estimate the impact of the 2008 and 2020 economic crises on the employment in Spain. We perform a counterfactual analysis, combining intervention (interrupted time series) analysis and conditional forecasting to estimate a “crisis-free” scenario. These counterfactual estimates are used as a synthetic control, to be compared with the observed values of the main variables of the Spanish Labor Force Survey (EPA).
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